Matter of Stats examines how many wins your team should have, based on its scoring shots in the first 5 games:
- Fremantle have won 1.7 games more than their statistics would imply.
- Richmond have won 1.1 games more.
- The Kangaroos have won 1.5 games fewer.
- Sydney have won 1.3 games fewer.
- Port Adelaide have won 1.0 games fewer.
Source: MatterOfStats 2017 : Team Dashboard for Round 5 — Matter of Stats
A few musings on the shape of the season that’s about to begin:
2017 promises to be one of the most exciting seasons of footy in recent memory. There are probably 16 clubs with legitimate aspirations of, come September, giving the finals a big shake up the way the Dogs did last year.
Source: My Focus for 2017 and Some Round 1 Tips – Figuring Footy
This week we see that Home Sweet Home has the highest Disagreement Index (readers from last year will know that this is completely unsurprising), and that disagreement levels are generally high as the Tipsters are split 5-4 in three of the games, and 7-2 in two more.
Source: 2017 – Round 1 : Is This Thing On?
Hey guess what? That new recruit you think is really good… yeah well this model (and other ELO models) don’t see things like that. Principle is every team has a 36 player list. One player falls, another rises to take their place. And really, everyone thought Adelaide would suffer without ‘Danger’ and the finished as defeated semi finalists.
And there are fresh articles on Expected Wins and Expected Finish for each team as well.
