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Who won the pre-season?

Posted on March 14, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:

And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.

Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Pre-season

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 19.6 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 17.8 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 15.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Brisbane Lions 15.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–6
5
Geelong 14.9 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Melbourne 15.5 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
7
Adelaide 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–7
8
Collingwood 13.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
Western Bulldogs 12.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
10
Carlton 11.9 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
St Kilda 10.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
12
GWS 10.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
13
North Melbourne 9.1 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
14
Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Port Adelaide 6.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 4.2 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18
18
Essendon 2.5 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18

After Round 23, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.6
1
2
Sydney 17 5 – 134.5%
+0.8
2
3
Brisbane Lions 15 7 – 119.5%
+0.5
4
4
Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.8
3
5
Melbourne 15 7 – 111.2%
+0.5
6
6
Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.9
5
7
Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.6
7
8
Collingwood 12 8 2 106.1%
+0.5
8
9
Western Bulldogs 12 9 1 94.1%
+0.3
9
10
Carlton 11 10 1 99.6%
+0.4
10
11
St Kilda 10 12 – 104.2%
+0.6
11
12
GWS 10 12 – 101.8%
+0.4
12
13
North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.1
13
14
Gold Coast 8 14 – 93.2%
+0.4
14
15
Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.6
15
16
West Coast 4 18 – 70.5%
+0.2
16
17
Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
Essendon 2 20 – 63.5%
+0.5
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9

152 50.2251 50.23 24.9634 24.96 76.7677 76.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9

151 34.1821 34.18 25.1009 25.10 76.2626 76.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9

149 52.1870 52.19 24.8673 24.87 75.2525 75.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9

149 47.6011 47.60 25.2231 25.22 75.2525 75.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9

148 51.1249 51.12 25.0378 25.04 74.7475 74.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9

148 50.4637 50.46 25.7071 25.71 74.7475 74.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9

148 49.5375 49.54 24.5381 24.54 74.7475 74.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9

147 50.8026 50.80 24.8222 24.82 74.2424 74.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9

147 49.4605 49.46 24.9240 24.92 74.2424 74.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9

147 47.1150 47.12 25.3971 25.40 74.2424 74.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9

146 48.6317 48.63 25.6566 25.66 73.7374 73.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9

145 52.8721 52.87 25.3960 25.40 73.2323 73.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9

145 50.4318 50.43 26.0505 26.05 73.2323 73.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9

143 50.7029 50.70 25.4156 25.42 72.2222 72.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9

143 49.0876 49.09 25.2206 25.22 72.2222 72.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9

143 45.5079 45.51 24.9813 24.98 72.2222 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9

143 38.4547 38.45 26.1523 26.15 †1 72.5888 72.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9

142 48.9212 48.92 25.0581 25.06 71.7172 71.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9

142 48.6350 48.63 25.1948 25.19 71.7172 71.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9

142 46.7016 46.70 25.1793 25.18 71.7172 71.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8

142 45.8893 45.89 25.9305 25.93 71.7172 71.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9

142 40.2655 40.27 25.5253 25.53 71.7172 71.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9

141 47.8055 47.81 26.1098 26.11 †3 72.3077 72.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9

139 44.9540 44.95 25.6616 25.66 70.2020 70.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9

139 44.8865 44.89 26.3636 26.36 70.2020 70.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9

139 43.7803 43.78 26.5960 26.60 70.2020 70.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9

138 47.4765 47.48 26.3354 26.34 69.6970 69.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9

138 41.4592 41.46 25.9630 25.96 †9 73.0159 73.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9

137 39.1750 39.17 26.7532 26.75 69.1919 69.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8

135 41.3304 41.33 26.0313 26.03 68.1818 68.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9

126 44.6543 44.65 26.2630 26.26 †25 72.8324 72.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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