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More Models

Posted on April 13, 2018April 13, 2018 by Max Barry

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

  • Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
  • Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 17.3 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Collingwood 17.2 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 16.3 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.7 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Gold Coast 15.5 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 GWS 15.0 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Fremantle 15.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Hawthorn 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
10
 Sydney 11.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Port Adelaide 9.3 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 St Kilda 8.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Melbourne 7.8 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 7.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 6.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 North Melbourne 5.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.6 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 21, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide 15 5 – 144.1%
+2.3
1
2
 Collingwood 15∗ 4 – 135.0%
+2.2
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 13∗ 5 1 110.8%
+2.2
4
4
 Geelong 13∗ 6 – 134.2%
+3.3
3
5
 Hawthorn 13 7 – 117.6%
+1.6
9
6
 Fremantle 13∗ 6 – 111.7%
+2.1
7
7
 GWS 13 7 – 111.3%
+2.0
6
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 137.3%
+2.3
8
9
 Gold Coast 12∗ 6 – 119.5%
+3.5
5
10
 Sydney 9∗ 10 – 93.9%
+2.1
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8∗ 11 – 83.2%
+1.3
12
12
 Carlton 7∗ 12 – 93.3%
+2.0
11
13
 Melbourne 6∗ 13 – 90.0%
+1.8
14
14
 St Kilda 6∗ 13 – 86.4%
+2.2
13
15
 Essendon 6∗ 12 – 71.7%
+1.2
15
16
 Richmond 5∗ 14 – 68.1%
+1.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 14 1 72.8%
+1.2
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 18 – 63.5%
+0.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 2

130 37.92 25.88 75.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 2

129 32.14 26.85 75.0%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 2

128 37.81 25.73 74.4%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 2

128 36.51 25.79 74.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 2

128 36.33 25.91 74.4%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 2

128 36.02 25.94 74.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 2

128 35.34 26.92 74.4%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 2

127 37.52 26.07 73.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 2

127 35.75 25.91 73.8%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 2

124 37.85 26.48 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 2

124 35.79 27.15 72.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 2

124 33.50 26.55 72.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 2

124 32.84 26.70 72.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 2

123 38.15 25.58 71.5%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 2

123 36.17 26.14 71.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 2

122 38.64 25.24 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 2

122 37.47 25.43 70.9%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 2

122 31.88 26.32 70.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 2

122 26.47 28.01 70.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 2

120 36.60 26.27 69.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 2

120 33.35 26.67 69.8%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 2

120 33.00 26.90 69.8%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 2

119 31.06 27.61 69.2%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 2

119 30.45 27.46 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 2

118 31.76 26.97 68.6%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 1

118 30.24 27.96 68.6%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 2

118 18.59 29.32 68.6%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 2

113 29.15 28.01 65.7%

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