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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 16.9 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Geelong 15.6 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
3
 Western Bulldogs 15.3 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
4
 Gold Coast 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Hawthorn 14.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
7
 Adelaide 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 12.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
9
 Fremantle 12.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
10
 Sydney 11.7 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 Carlton 11.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
12
 St Kilda 9.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
13
 Essendon 9.5 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
14
 Port Adelaide 9.2 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
15
 Melbourne 9.1 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 5.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 6.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.9 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 10, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 8 2 – 129.4%
+8.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 7 2 1 110.0%
+7.0
6
3
 Gold Coast 7∗ 2 – 132.0%
+8.2
4
4
 Hawthorn 7 3 – 123.8%
+7.9
5
5
 Western Bulldogs 6 4 – 132.6%
+9.3
3
6
 Adelaide 6 4 – 124.7%
+7.8
7
7
 Geelong 6 4 – 123.4%
+9.6
2
8
 GWS 5 5 – 107.4%
+7.1
8
9
 Fremantle 5 5 – 100.1%
+7.0
9
10
 Essendon 5∗ 4 – 81.2%
+4.5
13
11
 Carlton 4 6 – 106.9%
+7.5
11
12
 Sydney 4 6 – 98.7%
+7.7
10
13
 St Kilda 4 6 – 91.0%
+5.6
12
14
 Melbourne 4 6 – 82.6%
+5.1
15
15
 Port Adelaide 4 6 – 82.0%
+5.2
14
16
 Richmond 3 7 – 69.0%
+3.0
17
17
 North Melbourne 2 7 1 80.2%
+3.4
16
18
 West Coast 1 9 – 66.6%
+2.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6

68 14.83 26.44 76.4%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6

68 14.01 27.04 76.4%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6

67 15.52 26.48 75.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5

67 13.55 27.75 75.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6

66 14.78 26.95 74.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5

66 14.14 27.57 74.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6

66 13.28 27.11 74.2%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6

66 13.12 28.09 74.2%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6

65 14.03 26.67 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5

65 13.04 27.18 73.0%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5

64 15.62 26.52 71.9%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5

64 13.27 27.64 71.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6

64 11.34 27.54 71.9%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6

64 9.46 27.37 71.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6

63 14.99 26.35 70.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6

63 11.52 28.05 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5

63 11.32 28.23 70.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5

63 11.21 29.06 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6

62 13.72 26.38 69.7%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4

62 12.72 28.04 69.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5

62 10.10 28.54 69.7%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5

60 5.71 30.23 67.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4

59 9.67 28.52 66.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5

59 9.43 29.11 66.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5

58 10.91 28.29 65.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5

58 10.23 28.28 65.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3

56 7.72 29.80 62.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3

56 6.17 29.60 62.9%

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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