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The Return of Essendon

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Footy Maths Institute has a neat graph on Essendon over the last decade or so:

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 12. ALMOST PARITY

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.4 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 15.9 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Western Bulldogs 16.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
4
 Fremantle 14.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.6 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Geelong 14.5 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
7
 Gold Coast 13.2 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Adelaide 12.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Collingwood 11.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Melbourne 11.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 GWS 10.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 St Kilda 10.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.3 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 8.1 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
16
 West Coast 7.4 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Essendon 6.8 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 5.1 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 5, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 4 1 – 175.5%
+11.9
2
2
 Fremantle 4 1 – 131.4%
+10.7
4
3
 Hawthorn 4 1 – 121.0%
+12.4
1
4
 Western Bulldogs 4 1 – 120.7%
+12.0
3
5
 Gold Coast 3 2 – 132.0%
+10.2
7
6
 Brisbane Lions 3 2 – 115.0%
+11.6
5
7
 North Melbourne 3 2 – 105.9%
+6.9
13
8
 Melbourne 3 2 – 92.7%
+8.0
10
9
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 2 – 117.6%
+7.3
14
10
 Adelaide 2 3 – 106.4%
+10.1
8
11
 Collingwood 2 3 – 92.3%
+9.6
9
12
 Geelong 2∗ 2 – 89.7%
+12.5
6
13
 West Coast 2∗ 2 – 64.9%
+5.4
16
14
 St Kilda 1∗ 3 – 86.0%
+9.3
12
15
 GWS 1∗ 3 – 76.9%
+9.6
11
16
 Carlton 1 4 – 76.6%
+7.1
15
17
 Essendon 1 4 – 76.0%
+5.8
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 4 – 56.1%
+5.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 5

33 9.6968 9.70 24.4495 24.45 78.5714 78.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 5

32 9.3299 9.33 26.5305 26.53 76.1905 76.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 5

32 5.5910 5.59 25.8040 25.80 76.1905 76.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 5

31 9.9968 10.00 25.4686 25.47 73.8095 73.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 5

31 9.0855 9.09 25.8910 25.89 73.8095 73.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 5

31 8.9160 8.92 25.5274 25.53 73.8095 73.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 5

30 9.1219 9.12 25.5362 25.54 71.4286 71.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 5

30 8.4893 8.49 26.2157 26.22 71.4286 71.4%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 5

30 7.6495 7.65 25.7024 25.70 71.4286 71.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 4

30 7.3344 7.33 25.9226 25.92 71.4286 71.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 5

30 6.8689 6.87 27.5000 27.50 71.4286 71.4%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 5

29 8.6292 8.63 26.1786 26.18 69.0476 69.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 3

29 7.5685 7.57 26.3010 26.30 69.0476 69.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 4

29 7.1727 7.17 26.9857 26.99 69.0476 69.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 3

29 6.8924 6.89 26.3860 26.39 69.0476 69.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 5

29 6.6492 6.65 26.8333 26.83 69.0476 69.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 3

29 6.4186 6.42 26.8571 26.86 69.0476 69.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 4

28 3.8469 3.85 28.3810 28.38 66.6667 66.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 3

28 3.6578 3.66 26.9071 26.91 66.6667 66.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 3

27 8.6307 8.63 26.4729 26.47 64.2857 64.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 5

27 7.7948 7.79 26.3105 26.31 64.2857 64.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 5

27 7.7308 7.73 26.5290 26.53 64.2857 64.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 4

27 7.3210 7.32 26.1105 26.11 64.2857 64.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 4

27 7.2115 7.21 27.5952 27.60 64.2857 64.3%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 3

27 5.9271 5.93 28.4286 28.43 64.2857 64.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 3

26 5.9080 5.91 26.7900 26.79 61.9048 61.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 3

26 5.4296 5.43 27.3881 27.39 61.9048 61.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 3

26 4.0698 4.07 27.7000 27.70 61.9048 61.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 2

23 4.0886 4.09 28.9048 28.90 54.7619 54.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 3

20 0.7701 0.77 27.3939 27.39 †9 60.6061 60.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 3

9 1.2718 1.27 33.4412 33.44 †25 52.9412 52.9%

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