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Ouch

Posted on May 18, 2017May 19, 2017 by Max Barry

Richmond has given up the lead with the final score of the game on 11 occasions in the past decade. pic.twitter.com/EUmYsGa4YM

— InsightLane (@insightlane) May 15, 2017

CategoriesInsightLane

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.2 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.3 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 16.4 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Hawthorn 15.4 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 13.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Gold Coast 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
8
 Melbourne 13.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Collingwood 11.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
11
 St Kilda 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 10.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Carlton 8.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 6.7 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 4.5 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 4.7 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After Round 11, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 10 1 – 135.5%
+7.3
2
2
 Sydney 9 2 – 142.5%
+8.2
1
3
 Geelong 8 3 – 124.4%
+8.4
3
4
 Hawthorn 7 3 1 110.4%
+7.9
4
5
 Gold Coast 7 4 – 116.9%
+5.9
7
6
 Melbourne 7 4 – 106.7%
+6.0
8
7
 Adelaide 6 5 – 107.9%
+7.0
5
8
 Brisbane Lions 6 5 – 106.6%
+7.0
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 6 5 – 92.8%
+6.2
9
10
 Collingwood 5 5 1 100.3%
+6.4
10
11
 St Kilda 5 6 – 108.2%
+6.0
11
12
 GWS 5 6 – 98.6%
+5.8
12
13
 North Melbourne 5 6 – 97.6%
+5.0
13
14
 Port Adelaide 3 8 – 100.9%
+5.1
15
15
 Carlton 3 8 – 86.1%
+5.9
14
16
 West Coast 3 8 – 66.1%
+3.7
16
17
 Richmond 2 9 – 64.5%
+2.7
18
18
 Essendon 1 10 – 70.9%
+3.5
17

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6

78 25.8692 25.87 26.0012 26.00 78.7879 78.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5

78 25.0564 25.06 24.9088 24.91 78.7879 78.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6

76 17.1004 17.10 25.9342 25.93 76.7677 76.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5

75 25.4822 25.48 26.0066 26.01 75.7576 75.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5

75 22.9839 22.98 26.4990 26.50 75.7576 75.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5

74 24.3535 24.35 26.7879 26.79 74.7475 74.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5

74 23.6532 23.65 26.0646 26.06 74.7475 74.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5

74 19.0272 19.03 26.5657 26.57 74.7475 74.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5

73 26.1502 26.15 26.4188 26.42 73.7374 73.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4

73 25.8333 25.83 25.7153 25.72 73.7374 73.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5

73 24.9478 24.95 26.3118 26.31 73.7374 73.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5

73 22.6434 22.64 26.2929 26.29 73.7374 73.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4

72 25.5235 25.52 26.9923 26.99 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5

72 22.6742 22.67 26.8508 26.85 72.7273 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5

72 22.4038 22.40 28.0505 28.05 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5

72 21.7671 21.77 26.8297 26.83 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

71 22.8013 22.80 26.6486 26.65 71.7172 71.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5

71 21.1413 21.14 27.7521 27.75 71.7172 71.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

70 20.8238 20.82 26.3909 26.39 70.7071 70.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5

69 23.2723 23.27 25.9695 25.97 69.6970 69.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5

69 22.9909 22.99 27.3022 27.30 69.6970 69.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5

69 22.2619 22.26 26.7576 26.76 69.6970 69.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5

69 21.9548 21.95 26.7379 26.74 69.6970 69.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5

69 21.0878 21.09 28.7980 28.80 69.6970 69.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4

68 21.4369 21.44 27.2626 27.26 68.6869 68.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5

68 19.4845 19.48 26.7111 26.71 68.6869 68.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5

67 18.9541 18.95 27.1947 27.19 67.6768 67.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5

67 18.2977 18.30 27.0778 27.08 67.6768 67.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5

65 17.1876 17.19 27.6869 27.69 65.6566 65.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5

63 17.1406 17.14 27.4667 27.47 †9 70.0000 70.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5

53 18.8285 18.83 28.1757 28.18 †25 71.6216 71.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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