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Ouch

Posted on May 18, 2017May 19, 2017 by Max Barry

Richmond has given up the lead with the final score of the game on 11 occasions in the past decade. pic.twitter.com/EUmYsGa4YM

— InsightLane (@insightlane) May 15, 2017

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.3 148%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 17.0 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 13.8 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Collingwood 12.6 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
8
 Gold Coast 12.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Adelaide 11.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 Melbourne 12.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
11
 GWS 11.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
12
 St Kilda 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Port Adelaide 10.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 North Melbourne 10.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Carlton 7.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Essendon 5.9 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Richmond 3.7 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 8, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Hawthorn 6 1 1 121.2%
+10.5
2
2
 Sydney 6∗ 1 – 178.1%
+11.3
1
3
 Fremantle 6∗ 1 – 137.6%
+9.0
3
4
 Melbourne 5∗ 2 – 102.8%
+7.1
10
5
 Collingwood 4 3 1 108.6%
+8.1
6
6
 Brisbane Lions 4∗ 3 – 118.8%
+10.4
4
7
 North Melbourne 4∗ 3 – 115.9%
+6.3
14
8
 Gold Coast 4∗ 3 – 114.4%
+8.5
8
9
 Geelong 4∗ 3 – 108.6%
+9.8
5
10
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ 3 – 91.8%
+8.8
7
11
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 4 – 112.5%
+7.6
13
12
 St Kilda 3∗ 4 – 110.1%
+8.0
12
13
 Adelaide 3∗ 4 – 96.1%
+8.9
9
14
 GWS 3∗ 4 – 89.8%
+8.4
11
15
 West Coast 2∗ 5 – 55.8%
+4.6
16
16
 Carlton 1∗ 6 – 80.3%
+6.9
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 6 – 72.9%
+4.9
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 7 – 54.2%
+3.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 1

53 17.1505 17.15 26.1192 26.12 82.8125 82.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 1

52 17.5409 17.54 27.2469 27.25 81.2500 81.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 1

52 11.5299 11.53 26.9459 26.95 81.2500 81.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 1

50 16.1777 16.18 27.4652 27.47 78.1250 78.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 1

49 18.2684 18.27 27.2406 27.24 76.5625 76.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 1

49 17.5715 17.57 28.2891 28.29 76.5625 76.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 1

49 17.4367 17.44 27.2914 27.29 76.5625 76.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 1

49 17.3056 17.31 27.2527 27.25 76.5625 76.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 1

49 17.1382 17.14 26.8730 26.87 76.5625 76.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 1

49 15.8710 15.87 28.9688 28.97 76.5625 76.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 1

49 15.8147 15.81 27.4722 27.47 76.5625 76.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 1

49 14.6334 14.63 27.4337 27.43 76.5625 76.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 1

48 16.6376 16.64 27.4761 27.48 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 1

48 15.6639 15.66 27.5959 27.60 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 1

48 15.0722 15.07 28.6317 28.63 75.0000 75.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 1

48 10.8094 10.81 29.2969 29.30 75.0000 75.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 1

47 14.9569 14.96 28.4844 28.48 73.4375 73.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 1

47 14.8101 14.81 29.0938 29.09 73.4375 73.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 1

47 12.5715 12.57 28.2125 28.21 73.4375 73.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 1

46 15.5814 15.58 28.9236 28.92 71.8750 71.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 1

46 15.4300 15.43 28.2577 28.26 71.8750 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 1

45 15.0367 15.04 27.9094 27.91 70.3125 70.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 1

45 13.8777 13.88 29.7188 29.72 70.3125 70.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 1

45 13.7030 13.70 27.9859 27.99 70.3125 70.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 1

44 14.4644 14.46 28.6420 28.64 68.7500 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 1

44 13.7189 13.72 30.6406 30.64 68.7500 68.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 1

44 12.3202 12.32 28.5813 28.58 68.7500 68.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 1

44 11.7132 11.71 28.9016 28.90 68.7500 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 1

40 11.1464 11.15 29.0781 29.08 62.5000 62.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 1

38 8.7500 8.75 29.9091 29.91 †9 69.0909 69.1%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 1

28 10.4146 10.41 31.8077 31.81 †25 71.7949 71.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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