LEADERBOARD

After Round 10, 2022.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
s10

5 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 7

64 13.44 26.73 71.1%
AFL Scorigami

5 7 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 6

64 11.78 27.94 71.1%
PlusSixOne

5 6 7 6 7 8 5 7 7 6

64 10.10 28.34 71.1%
The Flag

6 6 6 4 7 8 6 7 7 7

64 9.95 26.98 71.1%
Data by Josh

5 6 7 5 7 8 5 8 6 6

63 16.63 25.38 70.0%
AFL Lab

4 6 7 5 6 8 7 8 6 6

63 15.41 26.60 70.0%
Live Ladders

5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7

63 14.89 26.66 70.0%
Massey Ratings

5 6 6 6 7 8 5 7 7 6

63 13.17 27.41 70.0%
The Cruncher

6 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 6

63 11.26 28.48 70.0%
AFLalytics

4 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 7 6

62 13.47 26.11 68.9%
Stattraction

6 5 6 4 6 8 8 6 7 6

62 10.25 27.68 68.9%
Punters

6 5 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 6

61 14.08 25.97 67.8%
The Footycast

4 6 7 5 6 8 5 7 6 7

61 13.33 26.37 67.8%
Aggregate

5 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6

61 13.26 26.74 67.8%
Squiggle

5 4 7 6 7 8 5 6 6 7

61 12.81 26.68 67.8%
Graft

5 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 6

61 11.56 27.44 67.8%
Drop Kick Data

4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6

61 11.40 27.68 67.8%
The Wooden Finger

5 6 7 6 5 8 5 7 6 6

61 11.30 27.98 67.8%
Cheap Stats

6 5 6 4 6 8 5 7 7 6

60 12.68 27.10 66.7%
Hyperion

5 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 6

60 10.58 27.59 66.7%
FMI

5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6

60 8.20 27.78 66.7%
Glicko Ratings

4 5 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 7

59 9.65 28.49 65.6%
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 5 7 8 5 6 6 6

58 14.66 25.85 64.4%
Elo Predicts!

6 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 6 6

58 7.76 28.18 64.4%
Wheelo Ratings

5 4 6 4 6 8 6 6 6 6

57 14.33 25.97 63.3%
ZaphBot

5 5 6 4 7 7 5 7 5 6

57 9.54 28.29 63.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the best long-term guide to a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people usually care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
s10 50% 0.1 23.2 80% 2.9 23.5 60% 0.7 22.3 70% 0.3 24.4 80% 2.5 25.1 40% -0.9 34.0 70% 0.2 26.4 60% 0.9 22.9 80% 2.0 30.5 60% -0.6 30.9 100% 5.9 15.5 100% 6.0 30.1 70% 1.4 25.3 70% 1.1 32.2 60% 0.8 20.5 80% 0.6 29.0 80% 2.5 42.1 70% 0.4 23.3
AFL Scorigami 50% 0.9 20.7 70% 2.0 28.1 70% 0.5 24.9 70% -0.4 25.9 80% 2.4 25.8 40% -0.4 33.7 60% 0.7 26.1 70% 0.7 23.7 90% 1.9 32.5 60% -0.1 28.4 100% 4.3 19.9 100% 4.9 35.0 70% 1.7 26.9 70% 1.4 31.4 70% 0.7 21.3 70% 0.6 26.8 70% 1.9 45.7 70% -0.1 26.1
PlusSixOne 60% 0.4 21.9 80% 1.9 27.9 70% 1.1 21.5 70% 0.2 23.9 80% 2.3 24.3 30% -0.2 32.8 70% 1.0 24.7 70% 0.1 25.1 90% 1.7 32.5 50% -0.4 29.4 100% 3.4 22.7 100% 4.2 37.1 70% 0.9 28.9 80% 1.1 32.2 50% 0.1 23.4 70% 0.7 27.4 70% 1.2 49.8 70% 0.5 24.5
The Flag 60% -1.9 26.8 70% 2.9 23.2 60% 0.3 22.1 70% -0.4 26.4 90% 4.2 20.1 60% -1.4 30.7 60% 0.1 25.9 60% -1.1 28.2 90% 2.9 26.7 40% -3.0 35.5 100% 7.1 18.9 100% 7.1 28.1 80% -0.1 28.6 70% 1.4 31.5 60% 0.3 21.5 70% 0.5 28.3 80% 2.1 38.3 60% -1.0 24.8
Data by Josh 60% -0.4 21.9 70% 3.7 20.4 50% 0.3 23.9 70% 1.2 22.0 90% 3.0 21.5 40% -2.0 35.9 60% -0.7 27.8 60% 1.4 21.5 70% 2.0 29.5 70% -0.3 31.6 100% 7.3 16.8 100% 6.9 28.7 70% 1.6 23.4 70% 1.7 30.2 70% 2.1 15.9 70% 1.1 27.7 70% 3.4 37.1 70% 1.0 21.0
AFL Lab 50% -0.9 25.0 80% 2.9 24.8 70% 1.7 20.7 60% 0.3 24.8 90% 2.3 24.6 30% -0.9 34.4 60% -0.4 27.8 60% 1.7 22.3 80% 2.2 29.6 70% -0.3 31.8 100% 6.8 14.3 100% 5.8 29.8 80% 2.3 24.2 80% 1.8 30.9 60% 1.0 20.5 70% 1.0 27.2 60% 2.0 46.2 60% 1.6 19.9
Live Ladders 50% -0.4 25.2 80% 2.8 24.4 60% 1.3 20.2 60% -0.7 26.6 80% 2.4 27.5 50% -0.2 31.8 60% 0.5 26.4 80% 1.7 21.2 80% 2.0 30.8 40% -0.5 31.3 100% 6.0 16.5 100% 6.1 31.8 70% 1.3 25.5 70% 2.0 29.2 60% 0.7 21.2 80% 1.6 26.5 80% 2.9 39.1 60% 0.2 24.6
Massey Ratings 50% 0.6 21.3 70% 2.5 26.4 80% 1.0 21.6 50% -0.1 25.0 90% 3.1 22.6 40% -0.4 32.4 60% 0.7 26.5 70% 0.4 23.8 80% 1.9 32.5 50% -0.5 31.1 100% 5.5 17.1 100% 5.3 34.4 70% 0.9 28.2 90% 1.7 30.5 60% 0.6 21.2 60% 0.5 28.5 70% 2.2 45.5 70% 0.4 24.8
The Cruncher 60% -0.9 28.9 80% 2.4 27.3 50% -0.2 24.5 60% 0.5 25.3 70% 2.6 26.6 60% -0.1 32.3 70% 0.4 26.3 70% 1.0 23.9 80% 2.5 29.7 60% -0.6 30.5 100% 5.5 18.8 90% 5.1 33.1 70% 0.2 30.2 70% 0.7 33.6 80% 1.2 21.1 60% 0.3 29.4 70% 2.0 46.2 60% -0.2 25.1
AFLalytics 60% 0.0 21.9 80% 3.4 22.8 50% 0.4 23.3 70% 0.2 23.3 80% 2.9 23.1 40% -1.8 34.5 70% -0.0 25.9 80% 0.9 21.6 70% 2.2 29.3 40% -0.3 29.1 100% 5.2 16.8 100% 6.8 26.5 80% 2.4 23.2 80% 1.4 30.6 60% 1.0 20.0 50% 0.0 31.1 60% 1.5 43.8 70% 0.5 23.1
Stattraction 60% -0.1 22.6 80% 2.3 25.1 30% -1.4 28.0 70% 0.8 22.3 90% 2.0 24.7 60% -0.0 32.8 60% 0.5 26.0 60% 0.4 24.4 80% 1.8 31.6 50% -0.5 31.8 100% 5.8 17.4 90% 4.0 33.6 70% 0.5 28.4 50% 0.5 34.9 70% 1.6 17.2 80% 0.8 26.1 70% 1.5 46.7 70% 0.1 24.8
Punters 50% 0.2 19.5 70% 3.8 19.4 50% 0.5 24.6 70% 0.4 24.0 90% 2.9 22.0 40% -1.5 35.6 50% -0.3 28.4 70% 0.8 22.4 60% 1.4 32.5 60% -1.2 32.9 100% 6.3 13.5 100% 6.9 29.8 70% 1.5 25.6 60% 1.0 30.2 60% 1.2 19.2 70% 0.4 29.2 80% 3.4 36.9 70% 0.5 21.8
The Footycast 50% 0.6 21.0 80% 2.3 24.4 50% 0.6 23.1 70% 0.3 24.7 80% 3.1 21.6 50% -0.2 31.5 70% 1.0 23.6 60% 0.2 26.1 60% 1.6 31.2 40% -1.1 31.6 100% 5.8 14.5 100% 5.5 30.6 70% 0.9 27.7 60% 1.7 30.0 60% 0.5 20.2 70% 0.8 27.9 80% 2.6 40.9 70% 0.4 23.7
Aggregate 50% 0.1 22.8 80% 2.9 23.4 40% 0.3 23.3 70% 0.4 24.3 80% 2.7 24.2 40% -0.9 33.7 70% 0.3 26.2 60% 0.8 23.1 70% 2.0 30.7 50% -0.8 31.4 100% 6.0 15.7 100% 5.9 30.6 70% 1.2 26.0 60% 1.1 31.9 60% 1.0 20.0 70% 0.6 28.6 80% 2.5 41.7 70% 0.3 23.6
Squiggle 50% -0.2 23.5 80% 2.9 22.1 60% 1.0 21.8 70% 0.1 25.1 80% 2.5 25.9 40% -1.2 34.0 40% -0.4 29.2 70% 0.8 25.2 60% 1.6 29.4 60% -0.4 32.8 100% 6.2 15.9 100% 6.0 26.9 70% 2.1 21.5 60% 0.4 35.2 60% 0.2 22.6 70% 0.6 31.5 80% 2.7 36.6 70% 0.8 21.1
Graft 50% -0.1 23.9 80% 3.4 22.7 50% 0.3 23.2 70% 1.1 24.1 80% 2.4 26.3 40% -0.9 33.7 70% 0.2 27.0 70% 0.8 22.3 80% 2.3 29.6 40% -1.6 32.3 100% 5.1 18.2 100% 5.8 31.9 70% 0.2 28.6 60% 1.1 31.1 40% 0.3 22.3 70% 0.9 28.2 80% 2.1 43.2 70% -0.3 25.4
Drop Kick Data 50% 0.4 22.3 80% 2.6 25.8 40% -0.5 25.7 70% 0.3 24.4 70% 2.0 26.7 50% -0.8 33.8 60% 0.5 26.3 60% 0.5 24.4 70% 1.7 32.1 50% -0.7 30.4 100% 5.9 16.0 100% 5.2 34.9 70% 0.5 28.1 60% 0.9 32.4 70% 0.9 19.6 70% 0.7 27.8 80% 2.5 43.2 70% 0.1 24.3
The Wooden Finger 50% -0.8 26.1 70% 3.4 22.3 40% -1.8 27.9 70% 1.2 25.0 80% 2.0 28.8 50% -1.5 34.7 60% 0.3 27.2 70% 1.0 25.8 70% 2.3 28.6 50% -2.0 34.8 100% 7.3 18.6 100% 6.3 31.9 60% 0.1 27.5 60% 0.9 34.5 70% 1.7 19.0 70% -0.3 29.9 80% 3.4 34.3 70% -0.8 26.7
Cheap Stats 60% 1.1 20.8 80% 3.3 22.5 60% 0.6 25.7 70% 0.2 25.2 80% 3.2 22.0 40% -0.8 35.1 70% 0.9 24.3 60% -0.6 26.7 70% 1.1 32.5 50% -0.6 32.6 100% 5.7 13.8 100% 6.4 29.5 70% 1.4 26.3 50% 0.0 34.0 40% 0.2 21.8 60% 0.4 28.9 80% 2.4 43.3 60% 0.5 22.8
Hyperion 60% 0.4 22.7 80% 2.8 22.5 40% -0.2 24.3 60% -0.3 26.2 70% 2.4 25.1 50% -0.8 33.7 70% 0.6 24.1 60% 0.2 24.1 70% 1.6 31.4 40% -1.2 33.5 100% 6.4 16.1 100% 6.3 29.8 70% 0.5 28.3 70% 0.5 35.1 50% -0.1 22.1 60% -0.0 30.9 80% 2.1 41.7 70% -0.1 25.0
FMI 50% -0.7 24.8 90% 3.4 20.1 40% -2.5 28.4 60% 0.7 26.0 70% 3.2 25.7 40% -2.5 36.2 60% -0.5 29.1 70% 1.4 23.1 60% 2.1 29.7 50% -2.6 34.1 100% 6.1 19.0 100% 5.9 31.0 60% -1.5 29.7 70% 0.8 33.1 60% 1.2 19.5 70% 0.5 28.2 80% 1.6 39.0 70% -0.2 23.3
Glicko Ratings 60% 0.0 23.0 70% 1.7 29.4 50% 0.0 24.0 60% -0.5 26.8 70% 1.8 27.5 40% -1.0 34.0 70% 1.0 25.0 60% 0.3 25.6 50% 1.6 32.8 50% -1.6 32.2 100% 6.5 15.3 100% 5.9 32.3 60% -0.5 30.8 60% 0.3 35.7 60% 0.6 20.9 70% 0.7 28.0 80% 2.6 44.2 70% -0.1 25.6
Matter of Stats 60% 0.9 19.0 80% 3.1 21.9 40% 0.8 22.1 60% -0.3 25.1 80% 2.7 24.4 30% -2.1 35.1 70% -0.3 27.2 60% 0.9 22.2 60% 1.8 31.2 40% -0.2 29.3 100% 6.4 15.7 100% 7.1 27.2 70% 2.6 22.4 60% 0.9 33.0 50% 1.4 18.4 60% 0.0 30.6 70% 3.0 37.3 70% 0.5 23.3
Elo Predicts! 60% -0.7 24.1 70% -0.6 26.7 40% -0.6 27.8 70% 0.4 25.0 80% 3.0 24.2 50% -0.8 31.6 50% 0.1 26.9 60% 0.8 25.5 60% 1.8 33.9 50% -4.3 34.1 100% 7.1 17.7 90% 5.0 31.1 70% 0.9 28.9 60% 0.7 33.6 70% 1.3 20.4 50% -0.7 27.7 70% 2.7 42.1 60% -0.6 25.9
Wheelo Ratings 60% -0.2 21.2 70% 3.9 20.9 40% -0.1 23.8 70% 0.0 24.7 80% 3.5 21.1 30% -1.6 34.5 40% -0.7 27.9 60% 1.0 22.5 70% 2.0 30.8 40% -0.5 30.0 100% 6.6 14.9 100% 7.0 27.9 70% 2.8 22.4 60% 1.1 31.8 50% 1.4 18.8 60% 0.3 30.3 70% 2.0 40.8 70% -0.1 23.2
ZaphBot 60% 0.2 23.0 70% 2.6 22.6 50% 0.1 24.2 60% 0.3 22.9 80% 1.8 27.9 30% -1.5 36.9 40% -0.5 30.0 60% 0.6 25.3 60% 1.8 30.9 40% -0.7 31.4 100% 5.3 16.1 100% 4.8 34.6 70% 0.6 28.8 80% 1.2 31.2 50% 0.9 20.8 50% -0.4 31.1 70% 2.0 43.9 70% -0.3 27.6