LEADERBOARD

After 4 games of Round 11, 2020.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

7 5 4 5 8 6 8 7 6 6 4

66 10.80 23.87 72.5%
AFLalytics

7 5 4 6 7 6 5 8 7 6 4

65 9.76 23.53 71.4%
Squiggle

7 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 7 4

64 9.01 23.83 70.3%
PlusSixOne

8 5 3 6 7 8 3 5 8 5 4

62 5.24 24.97 68.1%
Matter of Stats

6 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 6 4

61 9.57 24.17 67.0%
s10

7 5 4 4 5 7 6 6 7 6 4

61 9.18 23.87 67.0%
Aggregate

7 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 4

61 7.53 24.66 67.0%
AFL_GO

6 4 4 4 7 7 5 7 8 7 2

61 6.33 24.25 67.0%
Footy Maths Institute

8 5 3 4 6 6 5 7 7 7 3

61 3.43 27.67 67.0%
Swinburne

8 4 3 5 5 7 5 6 8 6 3

60 6.72 26.12 65.9%
Graft

7 4 3 4 6 7 5 6 6 6 4

58 5.05 25.53 63.7%
Live Ladders

8 6 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 4

57 6.38 24.54 62.6%
AFL Lab

5 4 4 6 4 7 6 4 6 7 4

57 3.94 25.29 62.6%
The Flag

8 4 4 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 4

57 3.19 26.12 62.6%
Stattraction

7 5 3 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 2

56 3.69 25.77 61.5%
Massey Ratings

7 3 3 4 3 7 4 1 7 7 3

49 4.01 26.28 60.5%
The Arc

8 3 3 4 4 6 5

33 -1.66 27.74 53.2%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Punters 90% 3.7 23.5 82% 2.7 22.9 60% 0.4 17.2 60% -0.6 28.2 67% 1.1 19.7 78% 1.5 16.1 80% 1.4 22.3 90% 1.1 23.8 70% 0.8 17.5 56% 0.0 30.6 90% 2.9 23.0 82% 1.3 26.9 91% 2.1 28.0 64% 0.4 24.3 60% -0.3 25.3 50% 0.6 18.9 90% 2.0 26.1 45% 0.2 33.1
AFLalytics 80% 2.4 28.0 73% 3.3 21.9 60% 0.2 15.9 60% 0.1 26.3 67% 0.2 18.4 78% 1.8 15.1 70% 1.3 20.6 70% 0.3 23.7 80% 0.9 17.0 78% 1.0 27.5 90% 2.7 22.5 82% 1.1 27.4 91% 2.5 26.8 64% 1.2 22.6 50% -0.7 26.1 50% -1.4 23.9 90% 2.2 25.5 55% 0.5 32.1
Squiggle 100% 4.0 22.6 82% 2.1 22.6 60% 0.7 16.4 50% -1.0 32.0 78% 0.5 17.8 67% 0.1 15.6 70% 1.1 22.5 70% 0.9 24.4 80% -0.1 19.2 56% 0.2 28.9 80% 2.0 24.2 73% 1.2 26.2 82% 2.3 25.1 73% 0.8 24.5 60% 0.2 23.6 50% 1.1 21.4 70% 0.9 28.6 64% 1.0 31.5
PlusSixOne 60% 0.7 33.7 73% 1.4 25.5 60% -0.0 16.5 60% 0.5 25.6 56% -0.4 19.4 89% 1.0 14.7 80% 1.0 22.5 60% 0.2 25.2 70% -0.0 18.6 78% 0.6 27.8 80% 1.4 26.0 73% 0.5 28.5 82% 1.7 28.5 73% 1.1 23.2 60% 0.1 25.2 50% -0.5 23.1 80% 1.1 28.8 45% 0.0 33.9
Matter of Stats 80% 4.0 24.7 73% 2.6 24.1 60% 0.3 17.3 50% -2.1 31.0 67% 0.3 18.1 67% 1.4 14.8 80% 1.8 21.6 60% -0.2 25.9 60% 0.8 18.1 67% 0.6 30.3 90% 4.0 21.9 82% 1.8 27.3 82% 3.8 24.1 73% -0.1 24.4 50% -0.3 25.2 40% -0.4 22.1 70% 0.4 30.0 55% 0.6 32.3
s10 80% 3.2 26.7 82% 2.9 22.6 60% 0.2 15.8 40% -0.9 28.3 67% 0.1 17.9 67% 1.3 14.1 80% 1.2 22.4 60% 0.4 24.7 70% 0.2 18.6 56% -0.0 30.6 90% 2.5 23.8 82% 1.7 26.2 82% 2.8 26.4 64% 0.9 23.3 50% -0.2 25.0 40% -0.2 21.1 80% 1.4 28.1 55% 0.9 31.9
Aggregate 80% 2.8 28.2 73% 2.8 23.3 50% -0.2 16.8 60% -0.6 27.5 67% 0.1 19.2 67% 1.2 14.7 80% 1.1 22.8 60% -0.0 26.2 50% -0.0 19.5 44% -0.2 31.1 80% 2.5 24.2 82% 1.5 27.1 82% 2.5 27.2 73% 0.7 23.8 60% -0.3 26.4 40% -0.5 22.6 80% 1.2 28.1 73% 0.5 32.9
AFL_GO 80% 3.3 25.7 100% 4.6 20.5 50% -1.4 20.7 40% -1.7 28.1 56% -1.1 21.2 78% 1.9 12.2 70% 0.3 24.4 60% -0.5 25.9 60% 0.3 17.8 67% -1.5 32.6 70% 1.8 27.5 73% 1.8 27.1 82% 2.9 25.1 64% -0.0 24.0 60% -0.4 25.5 50% -1.3 21.6 90% 2.4 24.6 55% 1.2 30.7
Footy Maths Institute 70% 0.6 32.6 91% 2.6 22.8 50% -0.5 23.2 80% 0.4 25.8 56% -0.1 23.2 67% 1.1 17.7 90% 1.0 26.6 60% -1.2 37.1 70% 0.1 19.5 78% 0.3 28.6 80% 2.5 26.6 45% 0.3 30.5 82% 1.5 30.2 82% 0.9 24.9 30% -1.6 33.6 40% -2.0 29.4 80% 0.7 29.0 55% 0.4 35.0
Swinburne 70% 2.1 29.8 82% 3.3 24.0 60% -0.3 18.9 70% 0.3 26.9 56% 0.6 19.7 67% 1.5 16.6 90% 1.3 25.2 70% -0.5 28.8 50% -0.5 20.8 67% -0.3 29.7 80% 2.9 25.9 73% 1.2 27.5 82% 2.0 26.5 55% 0.9 26.9 60% -0.8 28.7 30% -1.6 28.1 80% 1.5 29.2 45% -0.1 34.9
Graft 80% 2.1 30.8 73% 1.9 25.6 50% -0.6 17.9 50% -0.4 27.1 67% 0.1 19.0 67% 0.7 14.3 60% 0.8 24.9 60% 0.0 26.8 50% -0.1 20.5 56% 0.0 30.0 80% 2.2 26.6 82% 0.8 28.3 82% 2.1 28.5 73% 0.3 24.8 60% 0.0 25.8 30% -0.4 21.0 60% 0.5 30.8 64% -0.2 34.1
Live Ladders 90% 2.0 30.0 73% 3.1 22.5 70% 0.8 15.4 40% -1.0 28.5 56% -0.3 16.9 56% 0.7 15.0 50% 0.3 23.3 60% 0.3 26.0 40% -0.4 19.5 44% -0.8 32.3 90% 2.4 24.6 73% 1.6 25.8 82% 3.0 26.3 64% 0.7 23.4 70% -0.0 25.1 40% -1.2 21.7 50% 0.0 32.5 73% 1.5 31.3
AFL Lab 80% 4.0 31.1 73% 2.8 25.3 30% -1.1 18.4 50% -2.8 29.4 67% -0.3 18.0 78% 1.1 15.2 80% 1.3 24.2 60% -1.7 27.0 30% -1.8 21.7 33% -1.8 34.7 80% 1.7 24.6 73% 3.1 24.9 82% 3.2 27.8 73% 0.9 23.5 50% -1.2 27.1 40% 0.0 19.2 70% 0.1 30.5 73% 0.5 31.2
The Flag 80% 4.3 26.0 64% 3.0 23.5 40% -2.7 23.7 60% -1.5 28.7 67% -0.2 22.7 67% 1.4 15.1 80% 0.1 23.6 60% -0.9 28.5 50% -0.7 21.3 56% -0.8 31.3 80% 3.1 23.5 73% 1.4 28.7 82% 3.1 28.0 55% -0.0 26.2 50% -0.9 27.9 40% -2.3 25.3 70% 1.1 28.4 55% -0.9 35.6
Stattraction 90% 2.0 31.7 64% 1.5 26.2 60% -0.2 16.5 60% -0.9 26.5 56% 0.0 19.4 67% 0.3 15.3 70% 1.4 24.5 60% -1.0 29.8 40% -0.4 20.5 44% -0.6 32.0 80% 2.5 25.4 55% 0.6 29.1 82% 2.1 28.5 55% -0.3 25.5 60% 0.0 26.1 40% -0.7 20.7 70% 0.6 30.6 55% 0.5 33.1
Massey Ratings 67% 1.7 32.9 80% 2.3 24.7 33% -1.2 21.4 67% 0.3 19.9 50% -1.3 23.5 44% 0.9 16.2 70% 0.9 23.5 56% -0.8 29.1 44% -0.2 19.9 50% -1.1 37.1 62% 0.5 31.1 70% 1.7 30.4 90% 2.7 25.6 78% 0.6 28.9 56% 0.9 23.8 38% -0.3 24.0 75% 0.5 24.0 50% -0.1 36.9
The Arc 86% 1.2 25.6 71% 1.2 21.9 43% -1.0 22.6 57% -0.5 26.3 33% -0.7 19.5 71% 1.0 12.6 29% -0.3 31.6 43% -2.2 39.6 29% -1.7 29.0 43% -1.0 40.1 67% 1.2 18.8 57% 0.6 24.3 86% 2.1 27.6 71% 0.2 26.6 57% -0.6 25.4 29% -0.6 23.9 71% -0.5 32.6 14% -1.7 49.1