LEADERBOARD

Final standings after 207 games.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

147 39.76 71.0%
Live Ladders

7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0

147 38.01 26.55 71.0%
Aggregate

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0

147 37.30 26.63 71.0%
Massey Ratings

7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1

147 33.63 27.17 71.0%
Squiggle

6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

146 39.27 26.73 70.5%
Footy Maths Institute

6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1

146 33.24 27.54 70.5%
PlusSixOne

7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1

146 29.66 27.23 70.5%
HPN

6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0

146 24.79 29.11 70.5%
Graft

6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0

142 34.55 27.05 68.6%
The Arc

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0

141 32.75 27.26 68.1%
Swinburne

7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0

140 35.05 27.43 67.6%
Stattraction

6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0

139 28.20 28.15 67.1%
Matter of Stats

6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0

138 37.90 26.61 66.7%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

MAE is the most reliable measure of a model's accuracy. It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) However, it doesn't matter whether you get the winner right, which makes it somewhat divorced from what people really care about.

Bits is a good compromise between reliability and what people care about, which is tipping winners correctly—especially when you're confident.

Tips is the most common measure, which makes it handy for comparing across comps. And it's what people generally want to know: How many tips did you get right? But it's very easy to get lucky or unlucky in 50/50 games, so it's a poor indicator of future performance.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Punters 64% 1.5 77% 5.9 86% 10.5 81% 6.2 55% -0.7 77% 6.3 57% 1.4 77% 7.8 75% 4.9 62% 2.3 72% 4.6 59% 2.5 55% 1.7 92% 9.7 86% 7.7 57% -2.8 68% 3.5 77% 6.6
Live Ladders 68% 2.4 24.5 77% 6.6 23.5 82% 8.1 34.0 81% 4.6 25.0 55% -0.4 28.2 73% 6.5 30.0 70% 4.6 25.2 77% 7.1 28.5 75% 4.2 26.1 71% 3.6 23.7 72% 3.5 34.2 64% 1.4 28.0 59% 1.9 23.0 83% 10.8 23.1 86% 5.7 25.5 52% -3.2 23.3 60% 2.4 25.6 73% 6.2 26.4
Aggregate 64% 2.0 24.7 82% 5.9 23.4 86% 9.1 33.0 81% 5.0 24.1 55% -0.4 27.8 77% 6.3 30.0 65% 2.8 26.7 77% 6.9 29.6 75% 4.1 26.7 67% 2.9 25.4 80% 3.8 33.4 59% 1.4 28.4 45% 2.2 22.2 83% 9.5 24.0 86% 6.7 24.4 57% -2.2 23.3 60% 2.6 26.2 77% 6.0 26.0
Massey Ratings 64% 1.5 24.0 82% 5.4 25.2 86% 11.2 33.6 77% 4.2 25.7 59% -0.5 27.2 73% 6.7 29.8 61% 1.7 29.0 77% 4.9 29.9 71% 2.7 29.1 75% 2.6 26.2 72% 1.9 34.3 73% 1.4 26.0 59% 3.0 22.0 75% 10.2 27.2 86% 7.6 24.1 48% -6.1 25.0 60% 2.2 26.2 82% 6.5 24.1
Squiggle 59% 2.7 24.2 73% 5.6 24.7 86% 8.7 32.1 77% 5.4 23.4 50% -0.3 27.2 82% 6.7 28.4 65% 3.1 28.9 77% 6.8 29.6 71% 4.6 29.0 67% 3.7 25.1 84% 5.0 31.3 64% 2.3 29.1 45% 1.3 23.6 83% 10.5 23.6 86% 7.1 23.8 52% -2.2 23.4 68% 1.9 26.8 77% 5.8 27.2
Footy Maths Institute 59% 0.6 29.1 82% 6.6 25.7 82% 7.7 34.6 81% 5.2 23.2 50% -1.7 29.6 73% 6.0 28.5 70% 2.4 26.1 77% 6.4 29.6 71% 3.0 30.0 67% 1.6 26.6 72% 3.5 33.4 64% -0.2 31.7 55% 2.2 22.4 83% 9.5 21.2 86% 6.9 24.0 61% -2.3 27.2 64% 3.2 25.9 73% 5.8 27.5
PlusSixOne 68% 1.8 25.8 77% 4.9 21.4 82% 7.1 35.1 85% 4.0 24.1 41% -1.1 30.4 73% 4.8 30.6 70% 2.1 28.0 73% 4.7 34.2 71% 3.5 26.9 67% 1.9 27.6 76% 2.7 35.3 59% 1.5 26.7 50% 1.6 22.0 92% 6.7 26.1 91% 5.9 23.1 43% -1.2 23.9 72% 3.3 24.8 77% 5.0 24.3
HPN 59% 0.2 28.8 86% 5.6 26.3 82% 8.5 37.0 73% 5.1 25.6 64% 1.3 23.5 68% 1.9 38.4 65% -0.4 30.8 86% 7.2 33.0 88% 4.6 27.3 67% 1.8 27.1 64% 2.3 33.6 64% -0.6 30.3 59% 1.8 23.5 75% 5.6 30.2 82% 2.2 30.3 65% 0.7 20.6 52% -1.2 30.8 73% 3.1 27.3
Graft 55% 1.9 24.7 77% 6.0 24.1 82% 8.8 33.5 77% 4.1 25.3 55% -1.7 28.6 77% 6.7 30.4 57% 1.4 28.2 82% 6.7 30.6 75% 4.8 26.5 58% 1.6 27.8 60% 2.8 34.9 64% 1.7 27.2 45% 2.7 21.8 88% 8.7 23.7 86% 6.8 23.7 57% -3.1 23.9 64% 3.3 25.9 77% 5.9 25.8
The Arc 50% 0.3 26.9 68% 4.8 23.8 82% 8.1 34.0 81% 4.4 24.7 45% -0.8 27.3 73% 6.6 29.7 65% 3.5 26.3 73% 5.1 32.5 71% 3.8 28.2 67% 1.9 26.8 76% 3.5 35.4 55% 1.6 26.9 50% 1.8 22.8 88% 9.6 23.6 82% 7.0 23.7 52% -4.3 25.4 68% 2.5 26.5 77% 6.1 26.0
Swinburne 55% 1.1 26.2 77% 6.6 25.2 86% 10.7 32.6 73% 4.5 25.5 36% -2.7 29.7 82% 7.8 26.8 74% 3.6 25.7 73% 6.6 27.7 71% 3.8 28.6 67% 2.2 25.5 72% 3.1 34.3 64% 1.0 29.9 45% 0.7 24.6 79% 9.7 23.5 82% 7.6 24.4 39% -5.7 29.6 64% 2.5 26.9 77% 7.0 27.1
Stattraction 64% 1.6 26.3 73% 3.4 25.2 86% 6.7 33.3 65% 3.1 25.0 41% -0.3 30.4 68% 3.5 35.4 61% 3.1 27.0 73% 5.3 34.3 67% 2.6 28.4 67% 3.2 27.6 60% 2.1 37.0 55% -0.2 29.1 50% 1.4 22.6 83% 8.7 25.1 86% 5.1 25.9 61% 0.2 20.4 68% 2.4 26.2 82% 4.3 27.9
Matter of Stats 59% 3.1 22.8 68% 6.6 24.2 86% 11.2 29.3 73% 5.3 24.5 45% -0.4 26.4 82% 8.2 27.7 61% 2.9 27.3 77% 8.5 28.0 62% 3.2 28.2 67% 3.9 23.7 80% 4.1 32.8 41% -0.7 32.1 45% 1.8 22.2 83% 11.5 22.0 86% 6.9 25.9 48% -6.7 26.1 56% 0.7 27.4 77% 5.8 28.4