LEADERBOARD

Final standings for 2018 after 207 games.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

147 39.76 71.0%
Live Ladders

7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0

147 38.01 26.55 71.0%
Aggregate

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0

147 37.31 26.63 71.0%
Massey Ratings

7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1

147 33.63 27.17 71.0%
Squiggle

6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0

146 39.27 26.73 70.5%
FMI

6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1

146 33.24 27.54 70.5%
PlusSixOne

7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1

146 29.66 27.23 70.5%
HPN

6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0

146 24.79 29.11 70.5%
Graft

6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0

142 34.55 27.05 68.6%
The Arc

7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0

141 32.75 27.26 68.1%
s10

6 3 8 6 5 7 8 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 6 6 5 7 7 4 2 1 0

140 36.14 26.70 67.6%
Swinburne

7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0

140 35.05 27.43 67.6%
Stattraction

6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0

139 28.20 28.15 67.1%
Matter of Stats

6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0

138 37.90 26.61 66.7%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Punters 64% 1.5 77% 5.9 86% 10.5 81% 6.2 55% -0.7 77% 6.3 57% 1.4 77% 7.8 75% 4.9 62% 2.3 72% 4.6 59% 2.5 55% 1.7 92% 9.7 86% 7.7 57% -2.8 68% 3.5 77% 6.6
Live Ladders 68% 2.4 24.5 77% 6.6 23.5 82% 8.1 34.0 81% 4.6 25.0 55% -0.4 28.2 73% 6.5 30.0 70% 4.6 25.2 77% 7.1 28.5 75% 4.2 26.1 71% 3.6 23.7 72% 3.5 34.2 64% 1.4 28.0 59% 1.9 23.0 83% 10.8 23.1 86% 5.7 25.5 52% -3.2 23.3 60% 2.4 25.6 73% 6.2 26.4
Aggregate 64% 2.0 24.7 82% 5.9 23.4 86% 9.1 33.0 81% 5.0 24.1 55% -0.4 27.8 77% 6.3 30.0 65% 2.8 26.7 77% 6.9 29.6 75% 4.1 26.7 67% 2.9 25.4 80% 3.8 33.4 59% 1.4 28.4 45% 2.2 22.2 83% 9.5 24.0 86% 6.7 24.4 57% -2.2 23.3 60% 2.6 26.2 77% 6.0 26.0
Massey Ratings 64% 1.5 24.0 82% 5.4 25.2 86% 11.2 33.6 77% 4.2 25.7 59% -0.5 27.2 73% 6.7 29.8 61% 1.7 29.0 77% 4.9 29.9 71% 2.7 29.1 75% 2.6 26.2 72% 1.9 34.3 73% 1.4 26.0 59% 3.0 22.0 75% 10.2 27.2 86% 7.6 24.1 48% -6.1 25.0 60% 2.2 26.2 82% 6.5 24.1
Squiggle 59% 2.7 24.2 73% 5.6 24.7 86% 8.7 32.1 77% 5.4 23.4 50% -0.3 27.2 82% 6.7 28.4 65% 3.1 28.9 77% 6.8 29.6 71% 4.6 29.0 67% 3.7 25.1 84% 5.0 31.3 64% 2.3 29.1 45% 1.3 23.6 83% 10.5 23.6 86% 7.1 23.8 52% -2.2 23.4 68% 1.9 26.8 77% 5.8 27.2
FMI 59% 0.6 29.1 82% 6.6 25.7 82% 7.7 34.6 81% 5.2 23.2 50% -1.7 29.6 73% 6.0 28.5 70% 2.4 26.1 77% 6.4 29.6 71% 3.0 30.0 67% 1.6 26.6 72% 3.5 33.4 64% -0.2 31.7 55% 2.2 22.4 83% 9.5 21.2 86% 6.9 24.0 61% -2.3 27.2 64% 3.2 25.9 73% 5.8 27.5
PlusSixOne 68% 1.8 25.8 77% 4.9 21.4 82% 7.1 35.1 85% 4.0 24.1 41% -1.1 30.4 73% 4.8 30.6 70% 2.1 28.0 73% 4.7 34.2 71% 3.5 26.9 67% 1.9 27.6 76% 2.7 35.3 59% 1.5 26.7 50% 1.6 22.0 92% 6.7 26.1 91% 5.9 23.1 43% -1.2 23.9 72% 3.3 24.8 77% 5.0 24.3
HPN 59% 0.2 28.8 86% 5.6 26.3 82% 8.5 37.0 73% 5.1 25.6 64% 1.3 23.5 68% 1.9 38.4 65% -0.4 30.8 86% 7.2 33.0 88% 4.6 27.3 67% 1.8 27.1 64% 2.3 33.6 64% -0.6 30.3 59% 1.8 23.5 75% 5.6 30.2 82% 2.2 30.3 65% 0.7 20.6 52% -1.2 30.8 73% 3.1 27.3
Graft 55% 1.9 24.7 77% 6.0 24.1 82% 8.8 33.5 77% 4.1 25.3 55% -1.7 28.6 77% 6.7 30.4 57% 1.4 28.2 82% 6.7 30.6 75% 4.8 26.5 58% 1.6 27.8 60% 2.8 34.9 64% 1.7 27.2 45% 2.7 21.8 88% 8.7 23.7 86% 6.8 23.7 57% -3.1 23.9 64% 3.3 25.9 77% 5.9 25.8
The Arc 50% 0.3 26.9 68% 4.8 23.8 82% 8.1 34.0 81% 4.4 24.7 45% -0.8 27.3 73% 6.6 29.7 65% 3.5 26.3 73% 5.1 32.5 71% 3.8 28.2 67% 1.9 26.8 76% 3.5 35.4 55% 1.6 26.9 50% 1.8 22.8 88% 9.6 23.6 82% 7.0 23.7 52% -4.3 25.4 68% 2.5 26.5 77% 6.1 26.0
s10 50% 1.9 24.8 68% 5.9 23.5 86% 8.7 32.7 77% 4.9 23.7 50% -0.9 28.1 82% 6.6 29.1 65% 2.7 27.1 77% 6.6 30.2 71% 4.0 27.7 58% 2.6 26.0 72% 3.8 33.6 50% 1.2 28.8 45% 2.1 22.1 83% 9.6 22.9 86% 6.9 23.9 52% -2.8 24.3 64% 2.6 26.0 77% 5.9 26.1
Swinburne 55% 1.1 26.2 77% 6.6 25.2 86% 10.7 32.6 73% 4.5 25.5 36% -2.7 29.7 82% 7.8 26.8 74% 3.6 25.7 73% 6.6 27.7 71% 3.8 28.6 67% 2.2 25.5 72% 3.1 34.3 64% 1.0 29.9 45% 0.7 24.6 79% 9.7 23.5 82% 7.6 24.4 39% -5.7 29.6 64% 2.5 26.9 77% 7.0 27.1
Stattraction 64% 1.6 26.3 73% 3.4 25.2 86% 6.7 33.3 65% 3.1 25.0 41% -0.3 30.4 68% 3.5 35.4 61% 3.1 27.0 73% 5.3 34.3 67% 2.6 28.4 67% 3.2 27.6 60% 2.1 37.0 55% -0.2 29.1 50% 1.4 22.6 83% 8.7 25.1 86% 5.1 25.9 61% 0.2 20.4 68% 2.4 26.2 82% 4.3 27.9
Matter of Stats 59% 3.1 22.8 68% 6.6 24.2 86% 11.2 29.3 73% 5.3 24.5 45% -0.4 26.4 82% 8.2 27.7 61% 2.9 27.3 77% 8.5 28.0 62% 3.2 28.2 67% 3.9 23.7 80% 4.1 32.8 41% -0.7 32.1 45% 1.8 22.2 83% 11.5 22.0 86% 6.9 25.9 48% -6.7 26.1 56% 0.7 27.4 77% 5.8 28.4