LEADERBOARD

After Round 17, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5

109 33.4928 33.49 25.1786 25.18 75.6944 75.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5

107 32.3866 32.39 24.8454 24.85 74.3056 74.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5

107 23.3574 23.36 25.3054 25.31 74.3056 74.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6

106 33.1034 33.10 26.0833 26.08 73.6111 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

105 33.6623 33.66 25.4328 25.43 72.9167 72.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5

104 34.4194 34.42 25.2803 25.28 72.2222 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5

104 32.3621 32.36 25.5956 25.60 72.2222 72.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

104 32.1707 32.17 25.3635 25.36 72.2222 72.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5

104 28.6364 28.64 26.1765 26.18 72.2222 72.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

103 34.4830 34.48 25.7460 25.75 71.5278 71.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5

103 30.0833 30.08 25.6976 25.70 71.5278 71.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5

102 32.3689 32.37 26.8681 26.87 70.8333 70.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

102 31.5500 31.55 26.1808 26.18 70.8333 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6

102 28.3068 28.31 25.8042 25.80 70.8333 70.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6

101 32.5694 32.57 25.2176 25.22 70.1389 70.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5

101 32.5548 32.55 26.2846 26.28 70.1389 70.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6

101 31.0279 31.03 26.3958 26.40 70.1389 70.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5

101 27.1219 27.12 27.3373 27.34 †1 70.6294 70.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5

100 31.9308 31.93 25.5451 25.55 69.4444 69.4%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5

100 30.5282 30.53 25.7640 25.76 69.4444 69.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6

99 25.4867 25.49 26.0167 26.02 68.7500 68.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5

98 30.1385 30.14 27.0385 27.04 68.0556 68.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6

98 28.4251 28.43 25.6965 25.70 68.0556 68.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5

97 30.8751 30.88 25.6944 25.69 67.3611 67.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5

97 25.7542 25.75 26.7162 26.72 67.3611 67.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5

96 28.9459 28.95 27.3542 27.35 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5

96 27.4633 27.46 26.1626 26.16 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5

95 25.0089 25.01 27.0347 27.03 65.9722 66.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

93 25.3764 25.38 26.5333 26.53 †9 68.8889 68.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †23 71.9008 71.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

83 27.6252 27.63 26.7521 26.75 †25 69.7479 69.7%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 75% 2.3 20.4 62% 1.0 32.5 69% 3.3 24.4 81% 5.0 19.9 88% 7.9 26.7 81% 4.4 23.5 69% 2.0 27.2 75% 4.3 23.9 69% -0.5 29.2 69% 3.2 23.4 56% -0.3 26.5 81% 5.1 24.3 75% 1.7 23.3 88% 8.5 22.8 81% 4.9 20.0 100% 8.2 33.2 75% 4.3 24.5 69% 1.8 27.5
Wheelo Ratings 75% 2.7 16.9 50% 0.7 32.8 69% 2.9 24.6 81% 4.5 19.3 88% 7.3 27.4 88% 5.4 21.9 69% 0.8 28.4 75% 4.1 24.0 62% 1.0 28.4 75% 2.2 23.1 56% -0.4 26.8 81% 5.6 23.7 69% 0.3 23.8 88% 8.3 23.1 81% 4.8 20.3 94% 7.7 32.0 75% 5.2 25.3 62% 1.4 25.6
Holy Grail Ratings 69% 1.9 18.2 56% 1.2 32.6 69% 2.5 23.0 88% 3.4 19.9 94% 4.9 28.2 69% 2.8 25.1 62% 1.5 24.9 88% 3.6 21.4 62% 1.1 29.9 69% 1.5 24.1 69% 0.8 26.0 81% 3.0 24.4 62% 0.9 24.2 88% 5.0 26.3 88% 3.4 22.2 94% 5.4 32.9 75% 3.4 25.6 56% 0.4 26.5
ZaphBot 69% 4.0 17.9 62% 2.0 32.1 69% 3.2 27.7 88% 6.1 21.4 81% 7.0 27.2 81% 6.5 19.8 56% -0.1 29.6 75% 4.1 23.2 56% -1.1 33.1 75% 1.2 24.2 56% -0.1 28.1 75% 5.3 25.6 69% -0.9 26.4 88% 10.1 23.2 94% 6.5 21.4 100% 8.6 31.5 69% 4.1 27.9 62% -0.3 29.1
s10 69% 3.7 17.7 56% 1.3 33.2 62% 2.9 25.0 81% 5.0 18.6 88% 7.0 28.2 81% 5.2 22.1 62% 1.2 28.0 69% 4.0 24.0 56% 0.5 29.9 75% 2.2 24.4 50% -0.1 26.9 81% 5.7 24.0 75% 1.2 24.0 88% 8.9 23.5 88% 5.2 21.7 94% 7.6 33.7 75% 5.0 25.7 62% 1.0 27.2
Punters 69% 3.3 18.1 56% 0.7 34.1 69% 3.4 25.0 75% 4.6 21.0 88% 7.5 29.7 88% 6.6 20.8 69% 1.5 26.7 75% 4.2 23.6 62% 0.6 30.2 75% 2.3 24.3 50% -0.3 27.5 75% 5.2 24.3 62% 0.1 24.5 88% 9.2 21.1 75% 4.7 20.6 100% 8.6 30.3 75% 4.8 26.1 50% 1.7 27.2
AFLalytics 69% 3.1 18.7 56% 0.8 33.5 62% 2.7 24.3 81% 4.1 19.8 88% 6.5 29.3 75% 4.7 24.1 69% 1.8 28.1 75% 3.6 24.3 69% 1.5 28.4 81% 2.5 25.5 50% 1.0 26.0 81% 5.9 22.0 62% 1.1 23.6 88% 8.1 24.5 75% 4.4 22.8 94% 7.1 34.4 75% 5.1 24.6 50% 0.7 26.6
Aggregate 69% 3.5 17.4 50% 1.3 33.4 69% 3.1 24.7 81% 4.6 18.8 88% 6.6 28.0 75% 4.9 21.8 62% 1.0 27.1 69% 4.1 23.6 56% 0.4 30.7 75% 2.1 23.8 56% 0.3 26.5 81% 5.2 23.9 75% 1.0 24.6 88% 8.6 23.2 88% 5.0 21.9 88% 7.0 34.1 75% 4.8 25.8 56% 0.7 27.1
Glicko Ratings 75% 2.7 19.2 56% 0.8 33.8 62% 3.2 25.0 75% 4.6 19.0 88% 5.5 29.4 81% 4.6 22.9 69% 0.7 29.1 75% 3.3 25.2 56% 0.6 29.3 69% 1.5 26.4 50% -0.5 26.9 81% 4.9 26.0 75% 0.9 25.2 88% 8.2 24.8 75% 4.6 21.8 94% 7.2 34.0 75% 4.5 25.5 56% 0.2 27.8
Don't Blame the Data 69% 4.4 17.6 50% 1.6 33.0 69% 3.1 25.0 81% 4.8 19.3 88% 7.9 27.5 69% 4.8 23.5 62% 0.9 26.8 69% 4.6 23.5 56% 0.8 29.8 69% 1.1 25.7 56% -1.4 27.7 81% 6.2 25.0 75% 1.4 24.3 88% 10.0 23.7 88% 6.3 21.5 88% 7.0 33.7 75% 5.1 27.1 56% 0.4 28.7
What Snoo Thinks 75% 2.6 18.0 56% -0.1 34.8 75% 4.6 20.7 69% 4.0 20.1 88% 6.4 28.8 69% 4.1 25.1 56% -0.1 28.4 62% 3.6 25.0 56% 1.5 29.4 62% 0.3 26.6 56% -0.9 26.9 81% 5.5 22.8 69% 1.2 24.8 81% 7.7 25.7 94% 5.4 21.1 88% 7.0 33.8 75% 5.8 24.8 75% 1.4 25.5
The Wooden Finger 75% 3.7 19.2 50% 1.0 35.4 69% 3.8 26.9 88% 5.8 19.7 88% 7.1 27.7 75% 4.6 21.9 56% -0.3 29.3 69% 5.0 22.2 56% -0.5 32.9 69% 1.5 26.6 56% -0.2 27.6 81% 5.9 25.1 75% 1.0 29.2 88% 9.3 21.9 88% 5.8 20.9 75% 6.3 38.6 75% 5.1 27.9 44% -0.3 30.6
AFL Lab 62% 3.9 19.9 50% 1.3 34.3 62% 2.7 27.2 75% 4.1 18.9 88% 6.6 27.5 69% 2.5 26.3 62% 2.3 26.0 75% 5.0 21.3 56% 0.4 29.5 75% 2.9 23.8 62% 1.8 26.1 81% 5.0 24.6 75% 1.6 24.2 88% 8.1 25.6 81% 5.0 22.3 88% 6.1 35.7 75% 4.5 26.9 50% -0.6 31.1
PlusSixOne 69% 2.3 19.0 69% 1.1 33.2 62% 2.9 24.5 81% 4.8 19.5 88% 7.0 24.3 88% 5.6 19.4 62% 0.9 27.4 69% 4.3 22.1 50% -0.9 33.0 69% 2.0 23.2 56% 0.9 25.8 75% 4.4 23.4 56% -0.4 27.0 88% 7.4 24.6 81% 5.1 23.0 88% 6.6 35.6 69% 3.6 28.8 56% -1.1 30.5
Winnable 62% 3.5 17.6 56% 0.4 32.4 50% 1.8 24.9 81% 4.8 18.5 88% 6.6 29.3 81% 4.8 22.7 62% 2.3 25.6 75% 4.2 24.5 56% 1.8 28.2 75% 2.5 23.3 50% -0.3 27.4 81% 6.2 21.5 62% 1.7 22.4 88% 7.6 27.4 62% 3.9 23.8 100% 7.4 34.0 75% 5.1 24.4 56% 0.7 26.1
Matter of Stats 69% 4.1 18.7 56% 1.4 33.5 69% 3.0 24.0 81% 4.9 19.0 81% 6.2 31.4 75% 4.8 21.8 62% 0.9 28.5 75% 4.2 23.4 56% -0.1 32.2 69% 2.2 26.2 50% -1.4 28.3 75% 5.2 27.2 56% 1.1 24.9 88% 9.2 19.9 81% 5.5 22.6 100% 7.6 35.0 69% 5.1 27.5 50% 1.2 29.0
Informed Stats 69% 3.7 19.6 56% 1.6 35.5 62% 4.2 26.5 75% 4.3 20.2 88% 6.9 26.6 81% 4.4 18.2 62% -0.2 28.7 69% 4.1 23.9 56% -1.8 34.8 69% 3.1 24.7 50% -1.5 28.3 81% 5.2 24.4 69% 0.2 25.6 88% 10.5 22.8 81% 5.2 24.7 81% 6.1 36.8 75% 5.2 26.4 50% 0.8 27.4
The Cruncher 73% 3.8 22.3 50% 0.1 35.6 62% 1.1 26.8 75% 4.2 20.6 88% 6.3 30.0 81% 4.8 23.2 60% -0.0 31.8 62% 2.5 27.2 56% -1.5 30.7 69% 1.4 25.4 50% -1.3 27.5 81% 5.1 24.8 75% 0.7 27.1 88% 8.7 24.4 81% 4.9 23.4 81% 7.1 35.7 75% 4.7 27.9 62% 1.6 27.6
footycharts 69% 3.1 18.0 50% 0.9 33.9 69% 4.2 24.0 75% 4.5 20.0 88% 6.6 28.4 75% 5.6 21.2 75% 1.8 26.7 75% 4.7 22.9 56% 1.6 29.1 69% 1.8 26.2 50% 0.3 27.0 81% 6.1 20.1 62% -0.1 24.9 88% 7.8 25.9 81% 4.8 22.4 88% 7.0 34.0 75% 4.1 26.3 25% -0.9 29.0
Stattraction 69% 3.4 17.8 50% 1.1 34.6 69% 2.8 26.6 88% 5.3 17.7 88% 6.3 28.2 75% 4.5 21.4 56% -0.2 27.1 69% 3.7 25.1 56% 0.2 31.1 62% 1.4 24.9 62% 0.4 25.9 69% 4.6 23.9 62% 1.6 25.0 88% 8.9 22.3 88% 6.1 21.1 75% 5.8 36.5 69% 4.6 26.2 56% 0.4 28.4
The Footycast 62% 2.8 18.1 56% 1.2 32.9 69% 2.9 25.4 75% 4.2 20.0 88% 5.4 27.1 81% 4.2 22.8 56% 0.6 29.1 69% 3.1 24.6 50% -0.6 32.0 69% 1.5 24.6 56% 1.2 25.1 81% 3.8 23.5 62% 0.1 24.5 88% 7.4 24.2 81% 4.1 23.6 81% 5.4 35.9 75% 3.8 25.9 38% -0.1 29.1
In The Game 69% 3.8 21.4 56% 0.6 34.5 56% 1.1 24.9 81% 5.0 20.6 88% 7.4 29.4 69% 4.4 23.1 50% -0.3 30.2 69% 3.9 24.4 62% -2.1 33.2 62% 2.1 22.4 44% -1.0 29.2 75% 6.4 27.9 56% -0.9 26.9 88% 10.0 20.5 69% 5.1 25.8 100% 10.7 31.5 75% 2.7 32.7 56% 1.4 28.2
HBin 75% 3.4 19.2 56% 2.1 31.9 62% 2.4 26.8 81% 5.1 17.4 88% 6.0 30.7 75% 4.3 22.9 56% 0.2 26.9 69% 4.5 23.9 56% -1.1 31.7 69% 2.0 22.9 44% -1.7 27.4 69% 4.7 24.3 62% -1.0 26.1 88% 10.0 22.9 81% 5.3 22.3 81% 6.5 32.6 69% 3.1 27.5 44% 1.0 25.0
Live Ladders 62% 3.1 19.0 38% 1.2 32.6 62% 3.6 21.2 75% 3.9 18.6 88% 6.4 28.9 69% 4.0 25.3 62% 2.3 25.2 62% 3.1 26.8 62% 2.2 29.2 62% 2.2 24.5 62% 1.3 25.1 88% 5.2 23.3 62% 1.0 23.9 88% 7.2 26.9 69% 4.1 23.9 81% 6.1 34.2 81% 4.8 26.4 38% -0.0 27.4
AFL Scorigami 69% 3.5 19.7 44% -1.5 35.0 81% 3.8 22.0 75% 3.0 20.7 75% 5.6 30.1 69% 4.6 24.8 50% -1.0 31.6 56% 3.8 24.4 56% -1.7 30.8 69% 2.0 24.1 56% -0.3 27.5 81% 5.0 25.5 69% 1.3 24.2 88% 8.3 25.1 75% 4.2 24.2 81% 5.6 35.7 69% 4.2 28.3 50% 1.2 27.3
Graft 62% 2.9 23.9 44% 1.2 35.2 69% 3.4 29.7 75% 4.5 21.6 88% 5.5 30.7 75% 4.6 19.3 50% 0.5 29.1 56% 3.3 25.2 62% 1.2 30.6 62% 1.7 26.1 56% 1.3 28.5 75% 4.6 22.8 69% 0.4 28.6 88% 8.0 22.0 88% 4.4 25.2 75% 5.7 35.6 69% 4.8 28.0 38% 0.1 30.2
Squiggle 69% 2.5 17.6 50% 1.3 33.3 50% 2.0 26.2 75% 4.1 19.6 88% 4.5 30.5 75% 4.3 23.8 50% 0.6 28.5 69% 3.1 25.1 56% 1.8 27.0 69% 1.7 26.2 44% -0.3 28.7 81% 5.0 24.1 62% 1.0 22.5 88% 7.8 25.2 69% 4.3 21.9 88% 6.7 34.8 75% 4.7 27.8 44% -0.3 28.4
Elo Predicts! 62% 3.2 20.6 56% 1.1 32.9 62% 1.5 25.6 69% 4.2 20.9 75% 5.9 27.3 69% 4.3 21.4 50% -0.1 27.4 69% 3.6 27.6 62% -0.7 33.5 69% 1.1 22.8 56% -0.0 27.1 69% 3.8 30.1 62% -0.1 26.9 88% 8.3 25.1 81% 4.6 21.9 81% 5.5 35.2 69% 4.3 30.4 38% -0.5 29.8
Hyperion 71% 2.9 20.9 47% 0.6 32.4 64% 1.3 29.9 73% 3.6 18.0 87% 6.9 26.9 80% 6.6 20.1 67% 0.9 29.3 67% 4.2 23.1 56% -1.7 34.9 73% 2.3 23.6 47% 0.0 27.3 80% 4.6 28.1 60% -0.4 28.5 87% 8.5 20.9 75% 4.0 23.6 80% 5.2 32.2 73% 3.0 23.6 53% -1.9 33.7
Cheap Stats 62% 2.0 21.1 57% 1.8 31.1 69% 2.4 21.1 85% 1.9 24.2 79% 4.1 32.3 85% 4.8 22.4 71% 1.6 29.2 69% 2.8 27.1 54% 0.6 33.2 77% 1.1 26.2 50% 0.6 25.2 77% 2.1 30.4 69% 1.7 25.2 77% 4.8 26.1 79% 3.0 21.1 93% 5.7 32.8 79% 3.0 28.4 64% 0.2 27.4
Massey Ratings 67% 3.3 21.2 43% 0.6 34.6 69% 2.3 28.2 79% 4.2 18.1 85% 5.6 27.4 77% 4.0 22.7 57% 0.3 30.7 69% 3.0 24.0 57% -0.3 32.4 64% 1.3 26.2 50% 0.3 27.2 85% 5.7 27.9 62% 1.8 23.1 85% 7.9 22.7 85% 4.9 25.6 93% 5.9 32.3 83% 5.1 24.6 50% -0.7 30.6