LEADERBOARD

After Round 21, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8

136 41.84 25.84 76.0%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8

135 35.92 26.79 75.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8

134 42.45 25.72 74.9%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8

134 40.27 25.79 74.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8

134 40.04 26.04 74.9%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8

134 39.82 26.01 74.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8

134 38.87 26.99 74.9%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8

133 41.08 26.13 74.3%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8

133 39.56 25.99 74.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8

130 41.45 26.53 72.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8

130 39.73 27.13 72.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8

130 37.87 26.63 72.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8

130 36.41 26.63 72.6%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8

129 42.22 25.58 72.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8

129 40.10 26.15 72.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8

128 43.00 25.23 71.5%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8

128 41.81 25.47 71.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8

128 36.10 26.43 71.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8

128 29.35 28.11 71.5%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8

126 40.64 26.44 70.4%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8

126 37.02 26.74 70.4%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8

126 36.00 27.06 70.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8

125 35.10 27.48 69.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8

125 33.93 27.41 69.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8

124 35.20 27.26 69.3%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7

124 33.77 28.08 69.3%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8

124 20.81 29.56 69.3%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8

119 32.90 28.29 66.5%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 90% 5.9 28.3 60% -0.6 29.7 75% 3.1 23.0 75% 4.5 24.9 89% 8.4 24.8 70% 3.3 21.1 70% 4.3 25.5 79% 2.9 24.5 65% 1.6 28.2 85% 4.7 17.9 60% 2.3 24.5 90% 8.4 27.6 70% 5.3 35.5 80% 6.6 25.7 70% 3.5 26.5 75% 3.3 23.3 90% 11.4 24.9 75% 5.0 29.1
AFL Lab 95% 6.0 26.3 65% -1.1 28.9 70% 2.2 23.7 75% 3.7 25.0 79% 6.1 28.6 80% 2.1 22.4 70% 4.7 27.7 68% 3.2 26.5 60% -0.4 30.7 85% 5.2 16.8 65% 2.2 23.6 85% 6.5 29.3 75% 4.8 34.7 75% 7.0 27.8 60% 2.3 28.7 80% 3.6 20.6 90% 8.9 28.3 80% 4.7 32.9
Punters 90% 7.4 24.8 65% -0.2 28.1 75% 2.2 23.1 70% 4.8 25.4 79% 9.0 24.2 70% 3.3 22.0 60% 3.5 27.3 79% 2.5 25.3 55% 0.3 28.8 80% 5.7 16.5 65% 1.8 26.2 90% 8.3 28.1 70% 5.3 34.0 80% 5.9 27.3 70% 3.9 26.5 75% 3.8 22.8 90% 11.6 24.6 85% 5.9 27.7
Glicko Ratings 80% 6.0 27.1 65% -0.8 29.3 65% 1.3 25.2 80% 4.8 24.6 95% 8.9 24.4 70% 2.7 22.2 65% 3.9 26.7 79% 2.5 25.4 55% 0.2 29.8 80% 3.9 18.5 60% 1.9 24.0 90% 8.3 27.4 70% 5.4 33.1 80% 7.1 27.1 70% 4.2 25.8 75% 4.4 21.6 90% 11.3 23.6 80% 4.5 28.3
Don't Blame the Data 85% 4.5 28.6 65% 0.6 27.8 80% 2.6 24.1 75% 4.1 24.2 79% 7.2 26.2 65% 2.9 22.2 70% 4.6 27.2 74% 2.7 25.5 60% 0.9 30.2 80% 5.5 16.7 70% 2.6 23.1 90% 8.3 27.1 70% 4.3 35.1 80% 7.3 26.0 70% 3.5 26.6 70% 3.0 21.7 90% 10.3 26.3 75% 5.1 29.9
Aggregate 90% 6.2 26.4 65% -0.2 27.8 75% 2.7 23.5 75% 4.3 24.6 84% 7.7 25.6 70% 3.3 21.8 65% 4.0 27.6 68% 2.4 25.9 55% 0.7 29.6 85% 4.9 17.2 65% 2.1 25.0 90% 7.9 26.9 70% 4.8 34.9 80% 7.0 26.8 70% 3.5 26.8 70% 3.0 22.4 90% 10.5 25.6 80% 4.9 29.8
Live Ladders 90% 6.8 28.1 65% -0.0 26.1 75% 2.4 24.9 75% 5.0 23.6 89% 6.5 27.9 70% 3.1 22.6 70% 4.4 28.6 79% 3.0 26.2 55% 0.1 31.8 80% 6.0 18.1 60% 2.1 25.9 85% 7.5 27.8 75% 4.6 34.5 80% 6.6 28.6 65% 2.8 27.8 70% 2.7 21.9 85% 9.2 28.9 80% 5.0 32.5
Winnable 85% 7.5 25.4 65% -1.2 28.7 75% 1.3 24.5 70% 3.6 27.2 84% 9.3 25.8 70% 2.8 21.7 65% 3.7 29.4 63% 2.6 26.0 60% -0.0 30.7 80% 6.0 17.8 65% 1.5 25.1 95% 8.3 28.1 65% 5.4 32.9 80% 7.3 25.0 70% 4.3 25.8 70% 3.1 22.6 90% 11.2 25.9 85% 5.5 27.5
s10 85% 6.2 26.3 65% -0.0 27.0 75% 2.8 23.5 75% 4.5 23.8 79% 7.5 26.2 70% 3.0 22.0 65% 4.2 27.1 68% 2.6 25.9 65% 0.4 29.9 75% 4.9 17.3 60% 2.0 25.2 90% 7.6 27.0 70% 4.7 34.9 80% 7.2 26.7 70% 3.2 27.2 75% 3.2 21.8 90% 10.3 25.8 80% 4.9 30.3
Informed Stats 90% 8.2 26.3 60% -1.9 34.6 70% 2.3 21.1 65% 2.6 27.1 84% 9.3 25.1 65% 4.7 20.4 70% 4.3 25.8 68% 2.1 24.9 55% 0.7 28.9 85% 5.0 18.8 60% 0.9 27.5 90% 9.2 29.3 65% 5.7 32.5 80% 5.6 27.3 65% 2.4 29.6 75% 3.9 24.0 90% 12.3 24.4 70% 5.5 29.7
The Wooden Finger 90% 7.1 26.6 60% -0.7 32.1 75% 2.4 24.3 70% 3.8 26.8 84% 8.3 24.4 65% 3.0 22.2 70% 3.8 26.4 63% 0.8 27.2 60% 1.2 30.0 70% 5.0 21.1 70% 2.6 27.4 90% 8.5 28.4 70% 4.2 35.5 80% 6.8 26.1 75% 3.6 26.6 60% 2.7 24.2 90% 11.0 27.6 65% 5.1 31.0
ZaphBot 75% 4.9 26.4 60% -0.1 29.3 75% 3.4 25.4 70% 3.1 24.6 84% 7.6 27.1 70% 3.7 20.8 65% 4.8 26.6 79% 3.3 25.1 65% 0.7 30.4 60% 4.8 18.6 60% 1.4 26.3 90% 6.5 28.9 70% 3.5 35.4 85% 8.0 24.9 65% 2.3 29.3 65% 2.9 25.1 90% 10.3 24.5 80% 4.7 30.6
Squiggle 80% 6.8 26.7 60% -0.2 29.5 70% 1.0 26.1 75% 5.1 24.6 89% 7.7 25.6 65% 2.6 22.9 65% 3.5 27.5 74% 1.7 26.9 45% -0.9 32.4 80% 4.3 18.5 55% 2.2 24.9 90% 7.7 26.7 75% 5.8 32.6 80% 5.6 29.0 60% 3.0 26.6 75% 3.0 22.4 90% 9.2 27.7 80% 4.8 28.7
Drop Kick Data 90% 6.8 26.2 60% -0.1 28.3 65% 2.8 22.6 75% 4.6 24.5 84% 8.7 25.7 65% 2.3 21.0 65% 4.3 26.0 63% 2.2 25.2 55% 0.3 30.5 75% 4.8 17.1 60% 1.9 25.2 90% 8.6 26.3 65% 5.1 33.9 80% 7.5 26.4 70% 3.5 27.1 75% 4.3 22.4 90% 11.7 23.7 70% 4.9 28.4
AFLalytics 80% 6.3 27.4 65% -1.8 29.5 70% 2.5 24.5 80% 4.0 25.5 84% 8.1 25.1 70% 3.5 21.5 65% 4.0 27.0 74% 2.5 25.8 55% 0.5 29.4 75% 4.0 19.1 50% 2.7 24.0 90% 8.2 26.9 65% 5.5 33.7 80% 7.4 27.0 65% 4.1 26.9 65% 3.1 22.9 90% 10.6 26.0 75% 5.0 28.3
The Cruncher 80% 7.5 25.5 60% -1.5 29.5 70% 2.7 23.4 75% 4.1 26.5 79% 9.1 22.8 65% 2.5 21.8 65% 4.5 24.6 79% 2.5 24.2 55% 1.0 27.6 70% 3.3 20.0 50% 2.6 24.9 90% 8.8 25.8 65% 5.3 33.4 80% 6.7 26.4 70% 4.3 25.7 75% 5.1 21.4 90% 12.4 22.7 70% 5.1 27.8
Wheelo Ratings 80% 7.7 23.8 60% -1.1 30.5 65% 2.5 23.6 70% 4.5 25.3 79% 9.2 24.3 65% 3.0 22.1 60% 4.0 25.4 74% 2.1 24.6 55% -0.4 29.9 75% 4.1 17.9 55% 2.2 25.0 90% 8.9 26.3 65% 5.3 34.1 80% 7.1 26.4 70% 3.6 26.7 80% 4.8 21.1 90% 11.0 23.5 75% 5.2 28.1
Cheap Stats 80% 6.1 23.5 60% 0.9 27.4 75% 2.3 22.6 75% 5.6 23.6 84% 6.9 27.8 65% 3.4 22.8 60% 3.1 29.2 68% 1.5 24.7 50% 0.5 30.9 75% 4.2 17.4 60% 1.4 26.5 85% 6.4 29.2 65% 3.4 36.9 85% 6.0 27.6 70% 3.3 26.6 65% 1.4 26.6 95% 11.2 23.4 70% 4.8 29.0
The Footycast 75% 4.7 30.0 60% -0.3 28.9 70% 2.2 23.2 70% 3.9 25.6 84% 6.3 26.1 70% 1.3 25.2 65% 2.4 30.7 63% 1.2 28.9 60% 0.4 31.6 70% 3.2 21.0 60% 0.2 29.3 90% 6.4 28.6 75% 3.1 37.2 80% 5.4 28.8 75% 3.6 25.0 65% 1.7 24.3 90% 10.1 28.3 65% 2.5 33.3
Massey Ratings 75% 6.2 26.5 65% 0.0 26.4 75% 3.4 23.6 70% 5.0 23.1 79% 7.9 26.3 55% 2.9 22.1 65% 4.3 27.8 68% 2.7 25.9 55% 0.7 29.4 70% 5.5 18.1 65% 1.9 26.1 85% 7.3 28.1 70% 4.3 36.0 75% 7.8 27.6 70% 2.8 28.6 65% 2.4 23.4 90% 11.5 24.9 70% 4.6 31.9
Stattraction 80% 5.4 27.8 60% 0.0 26.2 70% 2.7 23.8 60% 3.5 26.7 84% 7.3 26.9 65% 3.1 23.2 55% 2.8 30.0 63% 0.8 28.0 60% 1.0 30.3 70% 5.2 17.9 65% 2.5 25.2 90% 8.2 27.0 70% 4.2 35.5 80% 7.0 25.6 70% 3.2 27.6 70% 2.6 23.0 90% 9.7 26.2 65% 4.9 30.3
What Snoo Thinks 85% 4.5 28.6 55% -1.7 28.4 70% 1.5 26.2 70% 3.7 26.4 79% 7.2 27.2 70% 3.6 23.0 60% 4.0 28.2 74% 2.1 26.8 60% 0.4 30.3 75% 4.4 19.0 65% 2.2 24.9 85% 8.0 26.9 60% 4.2 35.5 75% 6.3 29.0 70% 3.7 26.3 60% 1.9 23.3 90% 10.8 26.7 65% 5.0 30.5
footycharts 80% 6.4 28.9 65% -2.2 31.2 70% 1.7 25.3 75% 3.5 26.1 84% 7.8 25.3 70% 3.4 22.5 60% 3.5 28.2 68% 1.2 27.9 40% -1.9 33.9 80% 5.6 17.9 55% 1.2 25.0 85% 8.0 28.7 60% 5.7 34.8 80% 7.1 27.8 65% 3.3 28.0 60% 2.4 24.8 80% 8.6 29.6 80% 4.9 28.8
Graft 85% 6.3 28.6 60% -0.6 33.2 75% 2.5 22.8 65% 4.0 25.6 84% 6.4 25.4 75% 3.6 21.1 60% 2.8 28.7 68% 1.9 26.2 55% 0.7 29.8 70% 4.1 19.2 55% 1.2 28.4 85% 7.3 30.0 65% 4.0 36.3 80% 6.5 26.4 65% 2.5 27.8 55% 0.9 26.1 85% 10.0 25.9 70% 3.7 31.8
Elo Predicts! 70% 4.7 28.8 60% 0.1 23.2 80% 2.8 25.4 65% 3.7 24.7 74% 5.7 29.0 75% 3.8 22.2 65% 4.1 31.0 63% 1.3 29.2 55% 1.2 27.9 70% 4.4 19.9 55% 1.3 27.2 80% 6.8 26.8 70% 4.0 37.5 75% 6.8 28.4 75% 3.1 28.8 55% 1.6 22.7 85% 10.1 26.4 75% 4.9 31.9
Hyperion 75% 3.8 30.4 55% 0.3 28.3 75% 2.8 22.7 65% 3.8 24.9 84% 5.9 29.6 70% 3.0 21.9 65% 4.1 31.5 58% 2.2 28.6 60% 1.2 30.0 70% 4.9 17.6 70% 2.0 26.5 85% 7.1 29.5 60% 2.0 39.7 80% 7.2 28.5 75% 2.4 28.6 45% 1.1 23.8 95% 10.7 26.9 60% 3.0 36.4
PlusSixOne 80% 3.0 30.4 55% -0.1 24.5 65% 1.3 27.3 65% 1.6 27.0 84% 3.3 29.7 75% 2.8 22.9 60% 2.4 34.4 58% 1.3 29.8 55% 0.4 30.5 75% 2.6 23.3 70% 1.3 26.7 85% 4.5 30.4 75% 2.9 37.0 75% 3.8 35.3 55% 1.6 29.9 60% 0.5 25.2 90% 5.7 31.9 65% 2.6 35.9
AFL Scorigami 75% 5.8 29.7 50% -1.1 26.4 70% 2.7 24.5 60% 3.7 24.8 84% 7.5 24.4 55% 2.0 24.2 55% 2.6 33.1 53% 0.8 30.0 55% 0.2 30.0 65% 3.1 22.1 65% 2.1 25.7 90% 6.7 29.8 60% 4.8 36.8 80% 6.4 31.5 70% 3.1 28.2 60% 2.1 24.8 90% 9.8 29.5 60% 3.5 33.8