LEADERBOARD

After 9 games of Round 24, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 7

157 48.80 25.88 76.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 7

157 47.10 25.67 76.2%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 7

155 51.54 25.80 75.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 7

155 47.44 25.86 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 7

155 46.81 25.63 75.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 7

155 45.06 26.66 75.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 7

154 48.11 25.83 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 7

154 47.31 25.72 74.8%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 7

154 41.44 26.31 74.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 7

151 47.89 27.28†1 73.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 6

151 46.71 26.08 73.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 7

151 44.50 26.30 73.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 6

150 48.69 27.33 72.8%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 7

150 47.03 25.98 72.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 7

149 50.73 25.57 72.3%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 7

149 50.00 25.49 72.3%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 6

149 49.72 25.74 72.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 7

149 49.24 26.25 72.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 7

149 36.14 27.55 72.3%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 6

148 45.12 26.51 71.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 7

148 44.60 26.79 71.8%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 7

147 43.38 26.78 71.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 7

147 40.58 27.42 71.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 7

146 42.19 27.46 70.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 7

146 40.58 27.45 70.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 7

145 25.21 28.81 70.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 7

144 42.78 26.76 69.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 5

138 38.76 27.95 67.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 91% 7.8 27.7 57% -1.6 30.0 78% 4.6 22.4 74% 5.2 25.4 91% 10.4 23.8 65% 1.8 23.8 74% 6.5 24.7 73% 1.6 25.1 65% 2.2 28.7 83% 5.3 19.7 65% 3.6 23.7 91% 9.9 27.4 70% 5.0 34.3 83% 8.1 25.3 74% 5.2 25.3 74% 3.3 24.2 91% 13.9 25.2 74% 4.8 29.0
Don't Blame the Data 87% 6.1 27.2 65% 0.1 27.7 83% 3.4 24.1 78% 4.8 24.6 82% 8.7 24.3 65% 2.2 23.5 74% 6.6 25.5 68% 1.9 25.7 61% 1.5 29.6 83% 6.1 18.3 74% 3.9 22.0 91% 9.8 26.8 70% 4.3 33.3 83% 8.7 25.4 74% 4.7 24.4 70% 3.3 22.8 91% 12.6 27.2 74% 5.5 29.5
Punters 91% 9.4 25.2 61% -1.5 28.4 78% 3.9 22.6 70% 5.5 26.4 82% 11.2 23.9 65% 2.7 23.9 65% 5.9 26.8 73% 1.3 25.7 57% 1.2 28.5 78% 6.2 18.3 70% 3.6 25.0 91% 10.1 27.5 70% 5.3 32.9 83% 7.6 27.1 74% 5.9 25.8 74% 3.9 23.3 91% 14.2 25.8 83% 6.5 27.2
Aggregate 91% 8.2 26.2 61% -1.1 28.1 78% 3.9 23.1 74% 5.0 25.3 86% 9.4 24.0 65% 2.4 23.8 70% 6.2 25.9 64% 1.5 25.9 57% 1.4 29.3 83% 5.3 19.0 70% 3.5 23.7 91% 9.5 26.9 70% 4.7 33.5 83% 8.4 26.2 74% 5.0 25.2 70% 3.3 23.2 91% 13.0 26.8 78% 5.3 29.6
Glicko Ratings 83% 7.7 25.8 61% -1.7 29.5 70% 2.7 24.4 78% 5.2 25.3 95% 10.7 23.2 65% 1.8 24.5 70% 6.2 25.2 73% 1.0 25.9 57% 0.6 30.1 78% 4.0 20.7 65% 3.1 22.6 91% 9.6 27.1 70% 5.3 32.3 83% 8.4 26.4 74% 5.7 24.4 74% 4.9 22.1 91% 13.9 24.3 78% 4.7 27.4
Live Ladders 91% 8.9 27.3 61% -1.3 26.9 78% 3.4 24.8 78% 5.8 24.0 91% 7.9 25.7 65% 2.2 24.1 74% 6.6 26.4 73% 2.1 26.1 57% 1.0 30.9 83% 6.4 19.8 65% 3.1 23.8 83% 8.9 28.0 74% 4.8 32.7 78% 7.5 27.5 70% 3.9 25.1 70% 2.3 23.8 87% 11.3 30.8 78% 5.2 32.0
Winnable 87% 9.6 25.0 61% -1.9 28.5 78% 2.7 24.0 70% 4.1 27.6 86% 11.1 24.0 65% 1.8 23.4 70% 6.1 27.2 59% 1.1 26.1 61% 0.0 30.9 78% 6.1 19.9 70% 2.8 23.6 96% 9.9 27.8 65% 5.6 31.2 83% 8.5 24.2 74% 5.6 23.6 70% 3.5 23.3 91% 13.8 27.4 83% 5.7 27.3
s10 87% 8.2 25.9 61% -0.8 27.2 78% 3.9 23.3 74% 5.2 24.3 82% 9.2 24.6 65% 2.2 23.7 70% 6.4 25.3 64% 1.8 25.6 65% 1.2 29.4 74% 5.5 19.0 65% 3.2 23.6 91% 9.1 27.1 70% 4.7 33.3 83% 8.5 26.0 74% 4.6 25.3 74% 3.6 22.4 91% 12.8 27.0 78% 5.2 29.9
AFL Lab 96% 7.8 25.2 61% -1.8 28.8 74% 3.0 24.1 74% 4.0 25.3 82% 7.6 26.5 70% 0.8 24.2 74% 7.0 25.3 64% 2.2 26.5 61% -0.2 30.2 83% 5.5 19.0 70% 3.0 22.0 83% 7.8 29.4 70% 5.2 32.2 74% 7.8 26.8 65% 3.3 25.7 78% 3.8 21.6 91% 11.3 28.9 78% 4.7 32.0
The Wooden Finger 91% 9.5 28.0 57% -2.2 32.3 78% 3.8 23.9 70% 4.7 27.4 86% 10.2 23.5 61% 1.0 24.9 74% 6.3 25.6 62% 0.7 27.3 61% 2.1 29.7 70% 5.6 22.2 74% 4.2 26.2 91% 10.4 28.3 73% 5.0 34.5 83% 8.6 26.3 78% 5.4 25.6 61% 2.3 25.4 91% 13.4 28.9 65% 4.7 31.3
ZaphBot 78% 6.4 25.0 52% -0.7 29.1 78% 4.4 24.9 74% 3.9 24.2 86% 9.4 25.5 65% 3.6 22.6 70% 7.1 24.7 73% 2.8 24.8 65% 1.8 30.3 61% 5.5 19.7 65% 2.4 24.1 91% 7.8 28.6 70% 3.5 34.4 87% 9.5 24.1 70% 3.8 27.7 65% 3.9 24.2 91% 12.8 25.2 78% 5.5 30.2
Squiggle 83% 9.0 26.8 61% -0.3 28.7 74% 2.2 25.2 74% 5.9 25.9 91% 9.4 23.9 61% 1.6 24.3 70% 5.7 25.3 68% 0.6 26.9 48% -0.5 32.1 78% 4.7 20.3 61% 3.6 23.9 91% 9.4 26.6 70% 5.6 31.0 83% 7.1 27.6 65% 4.4 24.8 74% 3.7 22.6 91% 11.8 28.7 78% 5.2 28.7
Informed Stats 91% 10.6 27.6 52% -3.1 34.7 74% 3.9 22.3 65% 2.7 28.5 86% 11.2 24.7 61% 4.0 24.7 74% 6.8 25.1 64% 0.0 27.5 57% 1.3 29.3 78% 4.3 21.7 65% 2.3 26.3 91% 10.9 29.4 65% 4.8 34.0 83% 7.3 28.1 70% 4.5 28.8 74% 4.9 23.5 91% 14.9 26.1 70% 6.1 29.6
AFLalytics 83% 8.1 26.4 61% -2.7 29.6 74% 3.8 23.9 78% 4.6 26.2 86% 10.0 23.9 65% 1.7 24.0 70% 6.2 25.6 68% 1.5 26.0 57% 1.0 29.8 74% 4.4 20.7 57% 4.1 22.9 91% 9.7 26.8 65% 5.7 31.9 83% 8.9 26.2 70% 5.8 25.4 65% 3.4 23.8 91% 13.1 26.4 74% 4.9 28.0
The Cruncher 83% 9.7 25.6 57% -2.7 29.8 74% 4.2 23.7 74% 4.5 27.0 82% 11.1 23.2 61% 1.1 24.7 70% 7.2 24.0 73% 0.8 25.4 57% 1.8 27.7 70% 3.3 22.0 57% 4.2 24.0 91% 10.7 25.7 65% 4.8 33.1 83% 8.6 26.4 74% 6.4 25.0 74% 5.8 21.5 91% 15.1 23.6 70% 5.1 27.7
Wheelo Ratings 83% 9.8 24.2 57% -1.9 30.4 70% 4.0 23.2 70% 5.2 25.6 82% 11.3 24.1 61% 1.7 24.9 65% 6.6 24.4 68% 0.6 25.4 57% 0.1 29.4 74% 4.8 19.5 61% 3.5 23.6 91% 10.6 26.4 65% 5.1 33.4 83% 8.7 26.3 74% 5.4 25.4 78% 5.6 20.9 91% 13.7 24.4 74% 5.3 27.6
Drop Kick Data 91% 8.7 25.8 52% -1.1 28.8 70% 4.5 22.2 74% 5.1 25.0 86% 10.9 25.2 61% 1.5 23.6 70% 6.7 25.1 59% 0.9 26.2 57% 0.9 30.3 70% 4.7 19.6 65% 3.1 23.9 91% 10.0 26.5 65% 4.8 33.4 83% 8.9 26.1 74% 5.2 25.9 74% 5.0 22.5 91% 14.3 24.9 70% 5.3 28.2
Massey Ratings 78% 8.5 26.9 65% -0.9 26.8 78% 4.5 23.8 74% 6.2 23.9 82% 9.5 24.7 57% 1.9 23.8 70% 6.6 26.3 64% 2.0 25.5 57% 1.9 28.7 74% 6.5 19.2 70% 3.6 24.5 87% 9.2 28.1 70% 4.2 34.6 78% 9.4 26.8 74% 4.3 26.2 65% 2.4 24.2 91% 14.1 26.7 70% 4.6 31.5
The Footycast 78% 6.5 29.0 57% -1.1 29.1 74% 3.1 23.3 70% 4.5 26.3 86% 7.7 24.2 65% 0.7 26.3 70% 4.3 28.4 59% 0.9 27.8 61% 1.6 30.9 70% 3.7 22.1 65% 1.4 27.0 91% 7.9 28.1 74% 3.0 35.3 83% 6.5 27.1 78% 4.7 23.2 65% 1.6 25.6 91% 12.4 29.6 65% 2.9 32.4
Cheap Stats 83% 8.1 23.9 52% 0.1 28.2 78% 3.7 22.3 74% 6.0 25.2 86% 8.9 26.1 61% 3.4 25.0 65% 5.4 27.1 64% 0.6 25.6 52% 1.5 30.2 70% 4.3 19.2 65% 2.9 25.2 87% 8.3 28.3 65% 3.1 36.2 87% 7.6 27.0 74% 5.1 26.0 65% 1.8 26.8 96% 13.7 25.3 70% 5.7 29.6
Stattraction 83% 7.5 28.6 61% -0.4 26.1 74% 4.0 23.1 61% 4.2 27.2 86% 9.0 25.0 65% 2.3 24.7 61% 5.0 29.1 59% -0.7 28.3 61% 1.3 30.1 70% 5.8 19.3 70% 3.9 24.2 91% 10.0 27.3 70% 3.8 34.4 83% 8.9 26.3 74% 4.7 26.3 70% 2.8 23.9 91% 12.2 27.7 65% 5.1 30.8
What Snoo Thinks 87% 6.9 29.1 52% -2.4 28.3 74% 2.8 25.5 70% 4.2 27.0 82% 8.9 25.1 65% 2.4 24.7 65% 6.3 26.0 68% 1.0 26.8 61% 1.1 29.8 74% 4.7 20.8 70% 3.6 23.5 87% 9.6 27.9 61% 4.0 33.9 78% 7.7 28.1 74% 5.2 24.3 61% 2.3 23.8 91% 13.4 27.6 65% 5.1 29.8
Graft 87% 8.4 29.6 57% -1.6 33.3 78% 3.5 22.3 70% 4.8 26.3 86% 7.9 23.7 70% 2.3 23.9 65% 4.9 27.7 64% 1.1 26.4 57% 1.6 29.8 74% 4.7 20.2 61% 2.3 26.7 87% 8.7 29.3 65% 4.1 34.4 83% 7.9 27.0 70% 3.9 26.7 57% 0.7 27.1 87% 12.3 27.3 70% 3.8 31.9
Hyperion 78% 5.8 29.3 52% -0.7 28.6 78% 3.3 23.6 70% 5.0 25.7 86% 6.9 27.5 65% 2.7 22.9 70% 5.6 29.8 55% 2.1 27.4 61% 2.6 28.9 74% 6.1 18.2 74% 3.8 24.7 87% 8.9 28.8 61% 2.1 37.3 83% 8.4 27.3 78% 3.6 26.3 48% 0.8 25.2 96% 13.2 28.1 61% 4.2 34.9
footycharts 83% 8.7 29.2 61% -3.6 31.4 74% 3.0 24.4 74% 4.4 26.8 86% 9.6 23.8 65% 1.5 24.6 65% 5.6 27.3 64% -0.5 28.5 43% -1.7 33.7 78% 6.1 19.6 61% 2.2 23.6 87% 9.5 28.9 61% 5.7 32.6 83% 8.6 27.8 70% 4.9 26.5 61% 1.7 26.3 83% 11.1 30.3 78% 4.4 28.6
PlusSixOne 83% 4.1 27.2 52% -0.6 24.9 65% 1.6 27.8 70% 2.2 26.7 86% 4.0 27.9 70% 2.1 24.2 65% 3.5 33.3 50% 1.2 28.6 57% 1.1 29.8 78% 3.2 24.0 74% 2.2 24.6 87% 5.4 29.9 74% 3.1 34.6 78% 4.6 33.4 61% 2.1 26.2 61% 0.3 27.0 91% 7.1 33.2 65% 3.0 35.2
Elo Predicts! 74% 6.5 28.1 57% -0.7 23.6 83% 3.6 25.5 65% 4.4 24.9 77% 7.1 27.3 70% 3.0 23.0 70% 5.9 29.7 59% 0.9 27.5 57% 2.3 26.7 70% 5.1 21.2 61% 3.0 25.4 78% 8.3 27.2 70% 4.0 35.5 74% 8.0 28.0 78% 4.5 26.3 57% 1.4 23.0 87% 12.5 27.7 74% 5.5 31.1
AFL Scorigami 78% 8.0 28.2 43% -2.6 26.9 74% 3.9 24.7 61% 4.4 24.9 86% 9.1 23.5 52% 1.1 25.5 61% 4.6 31.2 50% -0.5 29.2 57% 0.8 29.7 65% 3.5 23.7 65% 2.8 24.2 87% 8.0 30.0 61% 4.5 35.6 78% 7.4 30.3 74% 4.5 25.2 61% 2.2 25.7 91% 12.2 31.4 61% 3.7 33.2