LEADERBOARD

After Round 3, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6

23 4.1697 4.17 25.0493 25.05 82.1429 82.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6

22 6.6013 6.60 23.6275 23.63 78.5714 78.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6

22 6.1920 6.19 23.3179 23.32 78.5714 78.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6

21 7.1933 7.19 23.7554 23.76 75.0000 75.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5

21 6.2387 6.24 24.4121 24.41 75.0000 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6

21 6.0850 6.08 25.4607 25.46 75.0000 75.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6

21 5.4688 5.47 24.3114 24.31 75.0000 75.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6

21 5.4109 5.41 23.5714 23.57 75.0000 75.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5

21 4.4582 4.46 25.8643 25.86 75.0000 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5

20 6.6122 6.61 24.8136 24.81 71.4286 71.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6

20 6.5918 6.59 24.3096 24.31 71.4286 71.4%
s10

2 8 5 5

20 6.5138 6.51 24.3104 24.31 71.4286 71.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6

20 5.5894 5.59 24.3214 24.32 71.4286 71.4%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6

20 5.4726 5.47 24.4879 24.49 71.4286 71.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6

20 4.7221 4.72 26.8929 26.89 71.4286 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5

20 4.7110 4.71 25.5943 25.59 71.4286 71.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5

19 6.9894 6.99 24.7729 24.77 67.8571 67.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6

19 5.3229 5.32 24.4479 24.45 67.8571 67.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6

19 4.3223 4.32 26.9814 26.98 67.8571 67.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5

19 4.3022 4.30 26.6429 26.64 67.8571 67.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6

18 5.3755 5.38 24.5643 24.56 64.2857 64.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5

18 5.3686 5.37 24.6943 24.69 64.2857 64.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5

18 5.1682 5.17 25.2500 25.25 64.2857 64.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5

18 3.8191 3.82 27.2786 27.28 64.2857 64.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5

18 2.7010 2.70 27.2250 27.23 64.2857 64.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7

18 1.7978 1.80 29.7500 29.75 64.2857 64.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5

17 5.5298 5.53 25.6561 25.66 60.7143 60.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5

17 3.9657 3.97 26.1207 26.12 60.7143 60.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4

17 3.0723 3.07 27.5000 27.50 60.7143 60.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †16 50.0000 50.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Holy Grail Ratings 67% 0.2 11.3 67% -0.2 29.9 100% 0.6 20.4 67% 0.3 17.8 100% 1.1 29.7 100% 1.1 24.8 100% 0.7 26.0 100% 0.8 42.0 75% 0.4 30.5 100% 0.7 20.6 100% 0.6 17.4 67% 0.3 25.2 67% -0.0 35.6 100% 0.8 28.3 75% 0.3 14.3 100% 0.5 32.5 33% 0.0 19.5 67% 0.1 26.9
What Snoo Thinks 67% -0.0 9.5 100% 0.3 25.6 100% 1.1 17.5 67% 0.6 13.5 100% 1.3 29.9 100% 1.8 25.8 67% 0.5 27.3 67% 1.2 43.4 50% 0.2 32.0 67% 1.1 20.3 100% 1.2 15.2 67% 0.5 19.9 67% 0.0 35.5 100% 1.5 24.0 75% 0.0 14.5 100% 1.0 30.0 33% 0.2 19.5 100% 0.8 21.9
Wheelo Ratings 67% 0.1 15.1 67% -0.2 27.3 100% 0.9 26.8 67% 0.0 16.5 100% 1.9 23.9 100% 1.9 14.3 100% 1.2 26.0 100% 1.6 34.5 75% 0.8 26.2 67% 0.9 21.0 67% 0.3 23.2 67% 0.3 24.2 67% -0.3 35.3 100% 1.9 20.3 75% 0.1 14.9 100% 1.3 27.7 33% -0.6 19.5 67% 0.2 24.8
Matter of Stats 67% 1.0 13.8 67% 0.1 25.9 100% 1.0 26.6 67% 0.8 12.3 100% 1.4 30.4 100% 1.5 20.1 100% 1.0 23.4 100% 1.8 29.9 50% 0.4 31.0 67% 1.0 22.3 100% 0.6 21.9 33% -0.0 26.3 33% -0.5 40.5 100% 2.2 12.9 75% 0.7 10.6 100% 0.8 32.2 33% -0.0 17.8 67% 0.8 31.7
AFLalytics 67% -0.0 18.1 67% -0.2 28.9 67% 0.8 29.3 67% -0.1 17.4 100% 1.4 28.3 100% 2.0 17.8 100% 1.3 27.5 100% 1.5 34.0 75% 0.6 28.1 100% 1.3 22.6 33% 0.4 22.2 67% 0.7 17.1 67% -0.2 36.2 100% 1.9 24.8 50% -0.3 17.1 100% 1.2 30.7 33% -0.1 15.8 67% 0.4 24.8
Drop Kick Data 67% 0.2 25.2 67% -0.1 26.8 100% 0.9 24.6 67% -0.4 20.2 100% 1.8 25.9 100% 1.9 16.7 100% 1.3 29.9 100% 1.4 38.6 50% 0.4 30.9 67% 1.2 20.6 67% 0.4 23.1 67% 0.2 24.7 67% -0.0 34.4 100% 1.7 23.6 50% -0.0 14.7 100% 1.3 29.6 33% -0.7 21.2 67% 0.6 29.3
footycharts 33% -0.2 13.8 33% -0.6 31.7 100% 0.9 25.8 67% 0.3 15.5 100% 1.6 25.0 100% 2.0 18.9 100% 1.1 24.4 100% 1.4 38.8 50% 0.3 31.4 67% 1.2 20.2 100% 0.9 18.1 100% 0.6 18.2 67% -0.6 36.7 100% 1.7 25.0 75% 0.1 13.9 67% 0.7 33.0 67% -0.5 19.4 33% -0.1 29.3
The Wooden Finger 100% 0.4 4.7 33% -0.5 29.0 100% 1.2 24.7 100% 0.8 14.7 100% 1.8 18.7 100% 1.9 17.0 67% 0.6 25.7 67% 1.6 35.7 50% -0.5 36.0 67% 1.3 17.0 100% 1.2 13.3 67% 0.1 25.0 67% -1.1 42.0 100% 2.1 17.7 75% 0.3 12.2 67% 0.1 41.3 33% -0.9 26.0 67% 0.5 23.3
HBin 67% 0.6 10.9 100% 0.9 18.5 67% 0.6 36.8 67% 0.5 14.7 100% 1.3 30.0 100% 1.3 20.8 67% 0.8 24.3 67% 1.6 35.5 75% 0.2 33.7 100% 1.1 21.8 67% 0.3 25.1 33% -0.5 28.6 33% -1.9 45.5 100% 2.4 23.9 75% 0.4 11.0 100% 0.6 35.6 33% -1.8 26.7 100% 0.6 24.5
Glicko Ratings 67% 0.3 22.0 67% -0.3 28.4 67% 1.0 31.4 67% 0.1 16.3 100% 1.1 28.9 100% 2.0 15.8 100% 1.4 29.6 100% 1.8 31.2 50% 0.5 27.6 67% 1.1 22.2 33% 0.4 22.3 67% 0.1 22.8 67% -0.3 38.6 100% 2.3 21.3 50% 0.3 13.4 100% 1.2 31.8 33% -0.3 18.9 67% 0.4 27.1
Don't Blame the Data 67% 0.0 12.6 33% -0.3 28.5 100% 1.1 32.1 67% 0.6 16.5 100% 1.7 25.7 100% 2.2 19.5 67% 1.2 27.0 67% 1.7 31.4 50% 0.3 29.9 67% 1.1 21.9 100% 0.9 19.1 67% -0.0 24.8 67% -0.7 38.2 100% 2.5 23.1 75% 0.6 13.0 67% 0.7 35.8 33% -0.8 17.1 67% 0.5 23.2
s10 67% 0.4 16.0 67% -0.1 27.4 67% 1.0 29.8 67% 0.3 14.3 100% 1.5 26.1 100% 1.9 18.3 67% 1.1 28.2 67% 1.5 34.8 50% 0.4 29.8 67% 1.1 21.5 67% 0.5 22.3 67% 0.3 21.7 67% -0.3 37.4 100% 2.1 23.3 75% 0.2 12.8 100% 1.1 30.9 33% -0.4 18.0 67% 0.4 26.7
Graft 33% -0.0 10.7 33% 0.0 26.7 100% 0.9 28.7 67% 1.0 14.7 100% 1.2 23.7 100% 1.9 15.7 67% 0.7 28.7 67% 1.5 34.3 75% 0.1 31.0 100% 1.2 18.0 100% 0.7 15.3 67% 0.1 24.3 67% -0.6 41.7 100% 2.0 15.3 75% -0.1 22.0 67% 0.7 35.7 33% -0.2 24.3 33% 0.2 25.7
Aggregate 67% 0.2 12.1 33% -0.1 27.7 100% 0.9 28.4 67% 0.4 15.0 100% 1.4 26.1 100% 1.8 19.1 67% 0.9 26.4 67% 1.4 35.2 50% 0.2 32.9 67% 1.1 20.3 100% 0.5 21.1 67% 0.1 23.9 67% -0.5 39.2 100% 2.0 22.9 75% 0.2 12.9 67% 0.8 32.0 33% -0.4 19.4 67% 0.1 27.2
ZaphBot 67% 0.4 11.0 67% -0.2 24.3 100% 1.5 26.7 67% 0.9 23.3 100% 1.4 26.3 100% 2.0 22.7 67% 0.1 34.0 67% 0.8 42.3 50% -0.6 37.8 67% 0.7 23.0 100% 0.9 16.7 33% -0.4 29.0 33% -1.4 44.0 100% 2.4 25.3 75% 0.6 17.5 100% 1.4 22.7 33% -0.9 25.0 67% -0.3 32.0
AFL Scorigami 67% 0.4 12.7 33% -0.6 26.1 100% 0.6 30.7 67% -0.3 21.7 67% 1.3 26.7 100% 1.8 27.0 67% 1.1 27.1 67% 1.7 32.1 75% -0.3 35.8 100% 1.4 15.7 100% 0.8 23.7 33% -0.4 27.0 67% -0.2 35.0 100% 2.0 22.8 75% 0.4 11.5 67% -0.6 43.0 33% -0.6 18.0 67% 0.9 25.7
The Cruncher 67% 0.5 21.4 67% 0.4 22.8 67% 0.9 29.3 67% 0.1 15.8 100% 1.3 29.9 100% 2.1 17.7 67% 1.3 28.9 67% 1.7 33.7 50% 0.3 28.7 67% 1.2 24.6 33% 0.1 25.2 67% 0.3 20.2 67% -0.4 38.3 100% 2.3 21.3 50% -0.2 15.0 100% 1.3 32.8 33% -0.5 18.8 67% 1.2 23.5
Stattraction 67% 0.2 7.5 33% -0.2 26.5 100% 1.1 28.7 67% 0.8 14.9 100% 1.4 27.3 100% 1.5 20.1 67% 0.7 21.7 67% 1.5 34.3 50% 0.0 33.4 67% 0.7 23.4 100% 0.8 18.8 33% -0.2 26.1 33% -0.6 41.0 100% 2.1 22.6 75% 0.7 11.2 67% -0.0 40.0 33% -0.3 19.8 67% 0.5 24.4
AFL Lab 33% -0.0 20.4 33% -0.6 34.4 100% 0.7 35.5 67% 0.4 13.9 100% 1.1 26.4 100% 1.9 18.1 67% 0.9 36.6 67% 0.9 40.2 50% 0.3 31.7 67% 1.0 21.8 100% 0.6 18.1 67% 0.0 24.1 67% -0.2 36.7 100% 1.8 25.6 75% 0.3 10.9 67% 0.2 41.7 33% -0.1 17.3 33% -0.5 35.9
Live Ladders 33% -0.2 15.3 0% -0.6 32.7 100% 0.8 24.3 67% 0.4 15.3 100% 1.2 31.0 100% 1.5 26.0 67% 0.9 25.3 67% 1.0 46.0 50% 0.1 33.5 67% 1.1 21.7 100% 0.6 21.3 100% 0.4 21.0 67% -0.2 36.7 100% 1.3 30.3 50% -0.2 15.5 67% 0.7 33.7 67% 0.2 18.3 33% -0.4 33.0
Punters 33% 0.2 15.6 67% -0.2 25.5 100% 1.3 25.3 33% -0.0 17.8 100% 1.7 26.7 100% 1.9 13.4 100% 1.4 21.7 100% 2.0 29.4 50% 0.3 31.8 67% 0.9 24.3 67% 0.3 23.2 33% -0.3 29.1 33% -0.9 41.8 100% 2.2 20.5 25% -0.6 18.8 100% 1.6 24.0 33% -0.8 22.9 33% -0.3 29.9
Squiggle 67% 0.0 9.0 67% 0.3 23.5 33% 0.4 36.3 67% 0.5 13.6 100% 1.1 31.5 100% 1.8 15.5 67% 0.6 22.5 67% 1.2 41.7 50% 0.5 29.7 67% 0.5 28.0 33% 0.3 23.3 67% 0.3 21.6 67% -0.1 36.5 100% 1.9 25.0 50% 0.4 11.5 67% 0.4 36.6 33% 0.3 17.7 67% 0.4 23.9
Informed Stats 33% -0.4 13.3 33% -0.2 27.0 67% 0.9 33.0 67% 0.6 18.0 100% 1.7 23.3 100% 1.7 10.7 67% 0.2 23.3 67% 1.6 37.3 50% -0.2 34.5 67% 1.3 23.3 67% 0.5 20.3 67% 0.0 25.7 67% -0.2 36.0 100% 2.4 17.7 75% 0.4 14.8 67% 1.0 37.0 33% -0.8 28.3 33% -0.3 31.3
The Footycast 33% 0.2 13.2 33% -0.6 30.9 100% 0.9 29.4 33% 0.4 23.2 100% 1.4 22.0 100% 1.7 20.8 67% 0.6 31.4 67% 1.0 40.3 25% -0.6 39.7 67% 1.3 19.1 100% 0.8 17.4 67% -0.1 26.2 67% -0.8 40.9 100% 1.9 24.7 75% 0.5 13.8 67% 0.3 40.9 33% -0.8 25.9 33% -0.2 31.6
PlusSixOne 33% -0.4 12.8 67% -0.4 28.8 67% 0.8 23.6 67% 0.3 20.9 100% 1.2 29.7 100% 1.8 14.3 67% 0.4 22.4 67% 0.9 47.2 50% -0.5 39.8 67% 0.8 25.3 67% 0.6 20.4 33% -0.2 27.0 33% -0.8 41.2 100% 1.5 25.2 75% -0.0 17.9 100% 1.2 28.0 33% -0.6 25.5 33% -1.1 38.9
Cheap Stats 33% -0.4 23.3 67% -0.0 26.7 67% 0.2 25.3 67% -0.5 26.0 67% 0.5 40.0 100% 1.5 28.7 100% 1.3 26.3 100% 1.4 37.7 50% -0.4 37.2 67% 0.3 29.0 67% 0.2 24.7 33% -0.8 33.3 33% -0.4 43.3 67% 0.8 30.3 50% -0.7 22.0 100% 1.0 24.0 67% -0.1 25.3 33% -0.3 32.3
Winnable 33% 0.1 13.2 67% -0.5 29.5 67% 0.4 36.8 33% 0.1 16.9 100% 1.7 28.8 100% 1.8 19.8 67% 1.0 25.6 67% 0.9 44.7 50% 0.9 26.9 67% 1.0 23.1 33% -0.1 27.3 67% 1.1 14.8 67% 0.5 27.5 100% 1.6 33.7 25% -0.2 16.7 100% 0.7 33.8 33% 0.1 16.3 33% -0.3 28.9
In The Game 33% 0.0 22.2 67% -0.4 27.9 67% 1.1 27.9 67% 0.1 17.8 100% 2.2 20.7 67% 1.4 20.0 67% 1.2 35.9 67% 1.5 33.2 75% 0.7 32.3 67% 1.1 19.2 0% -0.9 32.2 33% -0.4 29.1 33% -1.4 41.3 100% 2.4 16.7 75% 0.4 12.8 100% 1.7 22.7 33% -1.8 26.1 33% -1.0 34.4
Elo Predicts! 33% -0.1 9.7 33% -0.6 25.3 67% 0.8 32.0 67% 0.6 14.7 67% 1.1 32.7 100% 1.9 23.7 67% 0.6 25.7 67% 1.4 35.3 75% -0.3 35.5 100% 1.2 22.0 67% 0.5 25.3 0% -0.6 36.0 33% -1.6 50.3 100% 2.0 25.7 75% 0.0 10.0 67% 0.3 39.7 33% -0.8 22.7 33% -0.3 32.0
Hyperion 33% -0.1 11.0 33% -0.9 32.7 67% 0.8 32.7 67% 0.2 17.0 100% 1.3 25.3 100% 2.0 12.0 67% 0.6 22.3 67% 1.5 33.0 75% -1.5 43.2 100% 1.2 17.3 33% 0.0 23.7 33% -0.9 32.0 33% -1.7 46.0 100% 2.3 22.7 50% -1.1 19.2 67% 0.4 35.0 33% -1.4 24.7 33% -1.3 41.3
Massey Ratings 0% -0.2 20.5 0% -0.8 36.5 100% 0.9 40.0 50% -0.0 12.0 100% 0.7 28.5 100% 0.5 12.5 50% 0.2 38.0 0% -0.2 63.5 50% 0.3 47.0 50% 0.6 28.5 0% -0.2 51.5 0% -0.2 51.5 100% 0.6 27.5 100% 0.2 3.5 50% -0.2 56.0 50% 0.1 39.5