After Round 0, 2026.
| Tips | Bits | MAE | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4 |
4 | 0.5512 0.55 | 29.2800 29.28 | 80.0000 80.0% |
4 |
4 | 0.4215 0.42 | 28.7740 28.77 | 80.0000 80.0% |
4 |
4 | 0.2416 0.24 | 32.0700 32.07 | 80.0000 80.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.7828 0.78 | 31.8000 31.80 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.7625 0.76 | 28.3340 28.33 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.4188 0.42 | 30.3260 30.33 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.1959 0.20 | 32.8000 32.80 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.1467 0.15 | 30.8780 30.88 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.0736 0.07 | 32.0600 32.06 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.0669 0.07 | 29.8000 29.80 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.0522 0.05 | 31.4860 31.49 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | 0.0335 0.03 | 30.8980 30.90 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | -0.1827 -0.18 | 30.8000 30.80 | 60.0000 60.0% |
3 |
3 | -0.6078 -0.61 | 34.5800 34.58 | 60.0000 60.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.3243 0.32 | 29.9180 29.92 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.2274 0.23 | 33.4520 33.45 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.1510 0.15 | 33.2000 33.20 | 40.0000 40.0% |
|
Aggregate
2 |
2 | 0.0787 0.08 | 31.5560 31.56 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.0578 0.06 | 33.9360 33.94 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.0441 0.04 | 31.4000 31.40 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | 0.0371 0.04 | 33.1400 33.14 | 40.0000 40.0% |
|
s10
2 |
2 | -0.0373 -0.04 | 31.6380 31.64 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.0457 -0.05 | 32.3000 32.30 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.0908 -0.09 | 36.6600 36.66 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.2825 -0.28 | 38.2000 38.20 | 40.0000 40.0% |
|
Punters
2 |
2 | -0.4076 -0.41 | 31.9520 31.95 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.5069 -0.51 | 36.7860 36.79 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.6548 -0.65 | 33.0320 33.03 | 40.0000 40.0% |
2 |
2 | -0.9323 -0.93 | 42.2000 42.20 | 40.0000 40.0% |
1 |
1 | -0.3633 -0.36 | 34.6840 34.68 | 20.0000 20.0% |
1 |
1 | -1.0017 -1.00 | 36.9340 36.93 | 20.0000 20.0% |
"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).
"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.
[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?
Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.
Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.
MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.
By Round
By Team
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100% | 0.1 | 1.4 | 100% | 0.0 | 61.7 | 100% | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.8 | 100% | 0.1 | 23.4 | 100% | 0.1 | 23.4 | 100% | 0.3 | 2.1 | 100% | 0.0 | 61.7 | 100% | 0.1 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.5 | 19.2 | 100% | 0.4 | 46.8 | 100% | 0.3 | 3.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 49.9 | 100% | 0.2 | 49.9 | 100% | 0.1 | 24.9 | 100% | 0.1 | 24.9 | 100% | 0.3 | 3.0 | 100% | 0.4 | 46.8 | 0% | -0.5 | 19.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.3 | 18.6 | 100% | 0.2 | 52.9 | 100% | 0.3 | 7.0 | 100% | 0.0 | 55.4 | 100% | 0.0 | 55.4 | 100% | 0.0 | 26.5 | 100% | 0.0 | 26.5 | 100% | 0.3 | 7.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 52.9 | 0% | -0.3 | 18.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.0 | 6.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 50.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 19.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 61.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 61.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 23.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 23.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 19.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 50.0 | 0% | -0.0 | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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100% | 0.2 | 1.5 | 100% | 0.5 | 46.3 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0% | -0.3 | 62.8 | 0% | -0.3 | 62.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 29.3 | 0% | -0.1 | 29.3 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.7 | 100% | 0.5 | 46.3 | 100% | 0.2 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.4 | 13.8 | 100% | 0.4 | 51.3 | 100% | 0.4 | 2.9 | 100% | 0.0 | 54.7 | 100% | 0.0 | 54.7 | 0% | -0.1 | 28.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 28.9 | 100% | 0.4 | 2.9 | 100% | 0.4 | 51.3 | 0% | -0.4 | 13.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.6 | 9.0 | 100% | 0.4 | 55.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 5.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 69.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 69.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 26.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 26.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 5.0 | 100% | 0.4 | 55.0 | 0% | -0.6 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.7 | 20.3 | 100% | 0.4 | 51.1 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.1 | 100% | 0.1 | 53.9 | 100% | 0.1 | 53.9 | 0% | -0.0 | 27.9 | 0% | -0.0 | 27.9 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.1 | 100% | 0.4 | 51.1 | 0% | -0.7 | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.1 | 9.2 | 100% | 0.1 | 57.9 | 100% | 0.1 | 10.0 | 0% | -0.0 | 57.2 | 0% | -0.0 | 57.2 | 100% | 0.0 | 26.0 | 100% | 0.0 | 26.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 10.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 57.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.4 | 22.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 38.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 11.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 43.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 43.0 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.0 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.0 | 100% | 0.1 | 11.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 38.0 | 0% | -0.4 | 22.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.7 | 22.8 | 100% | 0.5 | 43.7 | 100% | 0.4 | 3.8 | 100% | 0.1 | 52.5 | 100% | 0.1 | 52.5 | 0% | -0.3 | 34.7 | 0% | -0.3 | 34.7 | 100% | 0.4 | 3.8 | 100% | 0.5 | 43.7 | 0% | -0.7 | 22.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.5 | 17.6 | 100% | 0.5 | 43.9 | 100% | 0.3 | 4.4 | 100% | 0.0 | 55.0 | 100% | 0.0 | 55.0 | 0% | -0.3 | 33.5 | 0% | -0.3 | 33.5 | 100% | 0.3 | 4.4 | 100% | 0.5 | 43.9 | 0% | -0.5 | 17.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -1.0 | 29.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 44.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 60.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 60.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 20.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 20.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 44.0 | 0% | -1.0 | 29.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.7 | 21.6 | 100% | 0.4 | 48.4 | 100% | 0.1 | 9.4 | 100% | 0.1 | 54.1 | 100% | 0.1 | 54.1 | 0% | -0.5 | 39.4 | 0% | -0.5 | 39.4 | 100% | 0.1 | 9.4 | 100% | 0.4 | 48.4 | 0% | -0.7 | 21.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.1 | 8.6 | 100% | 0.5 | 47.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0% | -0.0 | 56.1 | 0% | -0.0 | 56.1 | 0% | -0.4 | 35.1 | 0% | -0.4 | 35.1 | 100% | 0.3 | 2.9 | 100% | 0.5 | 47.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.2 | 9.9 | 100% | 0.2 | 55.5 | 100% | 0.5 | 8.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.8 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.4 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.4 | 100% | 0.5 | 8.8 | 100% | 0.2 | 55.5 | 0% | -0.2 | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.3 | 14.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 51.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 7.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 61.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 61.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 33.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 33.0 | 100% | 0.5 | 7.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 51.0 | 0% | -0.3 | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aggregate | 0% | -0.4 | 17.2 | 100% | 0.4 | 49.4 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 30.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 30.9 | 100% | 0.4 | 1.4 | 100% | 0.4 | 49.4 | 0% | -0.4 | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.5 | 14.8 | 100% | 0.3 | 53.5 | 100% | 0.6 | 8.7 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.2 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.2 | 0% | -0.4 | 34.4 | 0% | -0.4 | 34.4 | 100% | 0.6 | 8.7 | 100% | 0.3 | 53.5 | 0% | -0.5 | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.5 | 17.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 53.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 59.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 59.0 | 0% | -0.0 | 27.0 | 0% | -0.0 | 27.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 53.0 | 0% | -0.5 | 17.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.8 | 23.2 | 100% | 0.6 | 39.6 | 100% | 0.5 | 10.1 | 0% | -0.3 | 64.5 | 0% | -0.3 | 64.5 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.3 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.3 | 100% | 0.5 | 10.1 | 100% | 0.6 | 39.6 | 0% | -0.8 | 23.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| s10 | 0% | -0.5 | 18.6 | 100% | 0.4 | 48.3 | 100% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 58.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 32.8 | 0% | -0.2 | 32.8 | 100% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 100% | 0.4 | 48.3 | 0% | -0.5 | 18.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.3 | 13.5 | 100% | 0.3 | 52.5 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0% | -0.2 | 63.5 | 0% | -0.2 | 63.5 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.5 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.5 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.5 | 100% | 0.3 | 52.5 | 0% | -0.3 | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.6 | 21.4 | 100% | 0.3 | 49.8 | 100% | 0.6 | 15.1 | 0% | -0.4 | 68.6 | 0% | -0.4 | 68.6 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.4 | 0% | -0.0 | 28.4 | 100% | 0.6 | 15.1 | 100% | 0.3 | 49.8 | 0% | -0.6 | 21.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.6 | 25.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 50.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 13.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 64.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 64.0 | 0% | -0.4 | 39.0 | 0% | -0.4 | 39.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 13.0 | 100% | 0.3 | 50.0 | 0% | -0.6 | 25.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Punters | 0% | -0.9 | 24.2 | 100% | 0.6 | 39.6 | 0% | -0.1 | 14.3 | 100% | 0.3 | 43.4 | 100% | 0.3 | 43.4 | 0% | -0.4 | 38.2 | 0% | -0.4 | 38.2 | 0% | -0.1 | 14.3 | 100% | 0.6 | 39.6 | 0% | -0.9 | 24.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.5 | 26.8 | 100% | 0.1 | 57.4 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0% | -0.2 | 66.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 66.0 | 0% | -0.1 | 30.3 | 0% | -0.1 | 30.3 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.4 | 100% | 0.1 | 57.4 | 0% | -0.5 | 26.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -1.2 | 27.4 | 100% | 0.8 | 33.9 | 100% | 0.3 | 6.2 | 0% | -0.2 | 61.7 | 0% | -0.2 | 61.7 | 0% | -0.3 | 36.1 | 0% | -0.3 | 36.1 | 100% | 0.3 | 6.2 | 100% | 0.8 | 33.9 | 0% | -1.2 | 27.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -1.1 | 30.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 36.0 | 100% | 0.8 | 27.0 | 0% | -0.9 | 78.0 | 0% | -0.9 | 78.0 | 0% | -0.5 | 40.0 | 0% | -0.5 | 40.0 | 100% | 0.8 | 27.0 | 100% | 0.6 | 36.0 | 0% | -1.1 | 30.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.2 | 11.5 | 0% | -0.0 | 63.0 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0% | -0.1 | 59.8 | 0% | -0.1 | 59.8 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.6 | 0% | -0.3 | 35.6 | 100% | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0% | -0.0 | 63.0 | 0% | -0.2 | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0% | -0.9 | 24.2 | 100% | 0.1 | 59.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 14.2 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 57.9 | 0% | -0.1 | 28.3 | 0% | -0.1 | 28.3 | 0% | -0.1 | 14.2 | 100% | 0.1 | 59.9 | 0% | -0.9 | 24.2 |