LEADERBOARD

After 1 game of Round 9, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

61 19.7938 19.79 24.8255 24.83 83.5616 83.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 0

59 19.9044 19.90 26.0879 26.09 80.8219 80.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 0

58 13.3084 13.31 25.8803 25.88 79.4521 79.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

57 20.2688 20.27 25.5786 25.58 78.0822 78.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 1

57 20.1106 20.11 26.1647 26.16 78.0822 78.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 0

57 18.2748 18.27 26.5262 26.53 78.0822 78.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 0

56 20.7783 20.78 26.2879 26.29 76.7123 76.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 1

56 19.5011 19.50 26.3899 26.39 76.7123 76.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 1

56 19.4647 19.46 27.2603 27.26 76.7123 76.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 1

56 18.3664 18.37 26.3362 26.34 76.7123 76.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 1

56 13.6649 13.66 27.4247 27.42 76.7123 76.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 0

55 20.1814 20.18 27.0277 27.03 75.3425 75.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 1

55 18.8163 18.82 26.3474 26.35 75.3425 75.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 0

55 17.8659 17.87 26.8512 26.85 75.3425 75.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 0

55 17.0753 17.08 26.3700 26.37 75.3425 75.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 1

54 18.3897 18.39 27.7175 27.72 73.9726 74.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 1

54 17.6700 17.67 27.6438 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 1

54 16.7100 16.71 27.6364 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 1

54 15.6801 15.68 27.0041 27.00 73.9726 74.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 1

52 17.7880 17.79 26.7378 26.74 71.2329 71.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 0

52 17.5834 17.58 27.3564 27.36 71.2329 71.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 0

52 16.7103 16.71 27.4521 27.45 71.2329 71.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 0

52 16.6793 16.68 27.8356 27.84 71.2329 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 1

51 17.2939 17.29 26.9914 26.99 69.8630 69.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 1

51 16.1104 16.11 29.3562 29.36 69.8630 69.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 1

51 15.1376 15.14 27.3252 27.33 69.8630 69.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3398 14.34 27.5740 27.57 69.8630 69.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3060 14.31 27.3863 27.39 69.8630 69.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 1

47 13.5664 13.57 27.4795 27.48 64.3836 64.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 1

45 11.4218 11.42 28.4219 28.42 †9 70.3125 70.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 1

35 13.1506 13.15 29.1667 29.17 †25 72.9167 72.9%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Wheelo Ratings 88% 1.9 9.5 75% 1.4 22.9 88% 2.9 20.2 88% 1.7 19.1 88% 4.0 31.4 100% 4.4 11.3 88% 1.7 29.4 88% 2.7 31.0 88% 2.9 19.4 89% 2.3 22.5 50% -1.6 32.5 75% 2.8 21.1 75% -0.1 29.3 88% 3.5 27.2 88% 1.4 19.3 100% 3.6 38.7 62% 2.0 31.8 88% 2.0 32.3
Drop Kick Data 88% 2.2 13.4 75% 1.5 25.0 88% 2.9 19.7 88% 1.4 22.1 88% 3.6 33.1 89% 4.1 12.6 88% 2.2 31.3 88% 2.6 31.5 75% 2.2 21.6 78% 2.7 23.9 50% -1.6 31.4 75% 2.5 22.4 75% 0.5 30.7 88% 3.5 27.5 75% 1.4 18.6 100% 3.7 39.2 62% 1.9 32.5 88% 2.3 35.2
Holy Grail Ratings 75% 1.1 11.2 75% 1.3 23.8 88% 1.5 17.5 88% 1.4 22.5 88% 2.2 36.0 67% 2.1 17.5 75% 1.4 26.9 100% 2.5 25.9 88% 1.5 23.2 78% 1.6 21.3 75% 0.7 25.6 75% 1.6 21.1 62% 0.1 32.1 75% 1.6 34.2 88% 1.1 22.9 100% 2.3 38.8 62% 1.8 34.4 75% 0.9 32.6
Punters 75% 2.2 12.6 75% 1.4 24.7 88% 3.3 19.2 75% 1.4 22.6 88% 3.6 37.2 100% 4.7 11.5 88% 2.3 25.9 88% 2.8 29.5 75% 2.5 21.5 89% 2.3 24.3 50% -1.3 31.2 62% 2.2 23.2 62% -0.3 31.9 88% 4.2 23.8 62% 1.0 22.1 100% 4.4 33.6 62% 1.7 33.4 75% 2.1 34.3
s10 75% 2.4 13.2 75% 1.6 25.6 75% 2.7 20.8 88% 1.9 19.3 88% 3.7 33.3 89% 3.7 12.9 75% 1.8 30.2 75% 2.6 30.4 75% 2.6 22.3 89% 2.6 23.1 50% -0.7 30.0 75% 2.7 21.5 75% 0.0 32.6 88% 4.0 27.6 88% 1.7 21.2 88% 3.1 41.3 62% 2.3 32.4 75% 1.6 35.5
Glicko Ratings 88% 2.2 12.5 75% 1.4 25.5 75% 2.4 22.3 88% 1.7 20.6 88% 3.4 31.8 89% 3.6 12.2 88% 1.6 32.0 88% 2.3 29.7 75% 2.5 21.4 78% 2.4 24.9 38% -1.0 31.2 75% 2.4 23.8 75% -0.3 34.5 88% 3.9 26.7 75% 1.7 19.4 88% 2.9 43.0 62% 2.3 32.3 75% 1.2 35.8
Matter of Stats 75% 2.7 14.1 75% 1.5 25.8 88% 2.6 17.5 88% 2.0 20.2 88% 3.5 37.8 78% 3.1 12.6 75% 1.4 31.7 88% 2.8 28.7 75% 2.4 23.5 78% 3.0 23.2 62% 0.2 27.2 62% 2.0 24.0 50% -0.1 33.6 88% 4.5 21.1 75% 2.1 21.1 100% 3.0 42.0 62% 2.6 33.3 75% 2.3 37.6
AFLalytics 75% 1.7 14.3 75% 1.9 24.4 75% 2.4 20.7 88% 1.3 20.1 88% 3.6 33.9 78% 3.3 14.7 88% 2.6 28.9 88% 2.6 29.9 88% 2.6 21.6 100% 2.9 23.9 38% 0.1 28.8 75% 3.0 19.1 62% 0.3 32.3 88% 3.4 29.8 62% 1.0 23.8 88% 2.9 43.4 62% 2.3 32.3 62% 1.1 34.7
ZaphBot 75% 2.5 14.4 75% 1.3 26.5 88% 3.5 21.6 88% 2.8 24.8 88% 3.2 33.1 78% 4.0 14.1 62% 0.7 31.9 75% 2.2 31.4 75% 2.0 26.6 89% 2.2 22.4 62% -0.4 28.0 62% 2.2 26.0 62% -1.2 35.0 88% 4.8 26.0 88% 2.6 24.0 100% 3.8 36.1 62% 2.2 33.4 62% 0.6 37.6
Aggregate 75% 2.0 13.5 62% 1.5 26.3 88% 2.6 20.3 88% 1.8 19.8 88% 3.3 33.8 78% 3.3 13.9 75% 1.7 28.3 75% 2.6 29.8 75% 2.2 24.3 89% 2.4 22.1 62% -0.3 28.5 75% 2.4 22.1 75% -0.1 33.3 88% 3.7 27.7 88% 1.6 22.4 75% 2.7 41.4 62% 2.2 33.0 62% 1.1 35.6
Cheap Stats 62% 1.1 18.0 75% 1.3 25.6 88% 2.0 17.0 88% 0.5 26.6 75% 1.9 39.1 89% 3.5 15.4 88% 1.9 29.1 75% 2.2 31.5 75% 1.2 26.4 89% 1.4 24.9 50% -0.1 26.2 75% 1.1 24.2 62% 0.5 32.4 75% 2.5 28.9 75% 0.6 25.4 88% 2.7 35.4 75% 2.1 36.6 75% 0.9 32.6
Don't Blame the Data 75% 2.4 13.7 62% 1.5 26.9 88% 3.0 22.3 88% 2.2 20.9 88% 3.8 35.1 67% 3.3 15.7 75% 1.8 28.9 75% 2.8 29.5 75% 2.8 23.0 78% 2.7 22.5 62% -0.8 28.0 75% 2.8 22.8 75% -0.5 33.8 88% 4.5 27.9 88% 2.4 22.5 75% 2.2 44.7 62% 2.1 34.0 62% 1.2 36.5
footycharts 62% 1.4 12.6 62% 1.5 26.1 88% 2.9 19.5 88% 1.9 20.7 88% 3.3 34.4 78% 3.4 15.4 88% 2.7 26.8 88% 3.2 28.6 75% 2.4 23.2 78% 2.8 22.4 62% 0.5 25.8 88% 2.9 19.1 62% -0.4 31.8 88% 3.0 30.6 75% 1.4 23.4 75% 2.5 43.8 75% 1.6 35.2 38% 0.5 36.9
AFL Scorigami 75% 2.3 13.2 62% 1.0 25.7 100% 2.2 19.9 88% 0.8 23.2 75% 3.0 37.9 78% 3.2 16.7 62% 1.9 32.0 62% 2.9 28.4 88% 1.8 24.1 78% 2.6 20.2 62% 0.5 28.1 75% 2.0 21.0 75% 0.7 27.8 88% 3.7 29.0 88% 1.9 21.4 75% 1.7 44.6 62% 1.8 36.2 62% 1.8 35.9
What Snoo Thinks 75% 0.8 14.6 88% 0.9 28.8 88% 3.1 15.0 88% 1.6 20.7 88% 2.8 34.0 67% 2.5 18.4 75% 1.6 28.5 62% 2.0 32.5 75% 2.2 24.7 67% 2.4 23.3 62% -0.2 25.9 75% 3.0 18.3 62% -0.3 33.4 75% 2.7 31.3 88% 1.6 20.8 88% 2.8 40.5 62% 3.0 32.2 75% 1.6 33.1
The Cruncher 75% 2.7 17.4 75% 1.7 25.5 75% 2.6 21.2 88% 1.6 20.6 88% 3.7 33.8 89% 3.8 13.1 75% 1.4 31.4 62% 2.0 32.6 75% 2.4 22.3 78% 2.2 26.3 38% -1.7 31.9 75% 2.6 22.4 75% -0.3 35.7 88% 3.9 28.3 75% 1.4 24.5 75% 2.6 44.5 62% 2.2 33.4 62% 1.7 36.4
The Wooden Finger 88% 2.1 15.8 62% 1.4 25.8 88% 3.5 21.2 100% 2.7 20.0 88% 3.4 34.5 78% 2.7 15.6 62% 0.9 30.8 62% 2.9 30.0 75% 1.5 26.8 78% 2.4 23.6 62% -0.3 26.4 75% 2.6 24.5 75% -0.9 38.5 88% 4.1 24.8 88% 2.2 21.0 62% 1.6 46.9 62% 2.3 32.5 38% 0.3 41.2
AFL Lab 62% 1.6 18.3 62% 1.7 26.1 75% 1.8 24.7 75% 1.3 19.4 88% 3.3 33.3 67% 1.7 19.3 75% 2.2 30.9 88% 3.2 27.2 75% 2.5 22.7 89% 2.7 21.1 75% 0.7 25.0 75% 2.2 24.3 75% 0.4 33.5 88% 3.1 30.0 75% 1.5 22.2 75% 1.5 47.0 62% 2.4 34.6 50% -0.4 39.9
HBin 75% 2.5 15.5 88% 2.9 22.9 75% 2.0 23.5 88% 1.8 19.0 88% 2.0 36.9 78% 2.9 14.1 62% 1.0 28.5 62% 2.0 32.8 88% 2.6 23.8 78% 2.0 22.7 50% -2.4 29.3 62% 2.1 22.4 62% -1.5 36.8 88% 4.7 27.5 88% 1.9 21.9 75% 2.3 42.3 62% 1.4 34.7 62% 1.2 33.9
Winnable 62% 1.8 14.5 75% 0.7 27.2 50% 1.1 23.9 62% 1.2 21.3 88% 3.8 33.0 89% 3.4 13.3 75% 2.1 28.0 75% 2.4 32.9 75% 3.1 21.0 89% 2.5 21.9 38% -1.6 32.8 75% 3.4 17.4 62% 0.9 27.9 88% 3.1 34.0 38% 0.9 24.8 100% 3.0 42.0 62% 2.5 34.0 75% 1.2 33.7
In The Game 75% 2.8 17.8 75% 0.7 27.4 62% 2.4 20.8 88% 1.7 20.2 88% 3.8 35.0 78% 3.4 13.2 62% 1.2 34.3 75% 2.8 30.2 88% 3.1 23.5 67% 2.2 21.8 25% -3.4 36.0 62% 2.8 24.9 50% -1.9 34.9 88% 4.6 21.3 62% 1.2 27.0 100% 5.3 32.4 62% 0.6 39.6 75% 1.7 34.6
Live Ladders 62% 1.3 14.0 50% 1.3 28.1 75% 2.3 18.4 88% 1.7 20.9 88% 2.9 35.4 67% 2.4 18.0 75% 2.2 27.1 75% 2.5 31.4 75% 2.2 26.5 78% 2.6 22.2 62% 0.7 25.2 88% 2.7 21.1 62% 0.1 31.9 88% 2.6 34.6 50% 0.9 25.1 75% 2.3 43.1 75% 2.4 36.9 50% 0.4 36.0
Informed Stats 62% 1.8 18.1 62% 0.8 30.4 75% 2.8 23.9 88% 2.2 21.0 88% 3.6 31.5 78% 3.6 9.0 75% -0.2 30.5 62% 2.1 32.2 75% 1.4 28.6 78% 3.0 23.3 50% -1.9 29.6 75% 2.3 26.8 62% -0.9 35.8 88% 5.0 22.8 75% 2.1 25.4 62% 2.0 44.4 62% 2.3 35.8 62% 1.4 35.0
Stattraction 75% 2.0 13.8 62% 1.6 26.1 88% 2.9 21.6 88% 2.6 19.3 88% 3.0 36.0 78% 2.6 14.9 62% 1.4 26.4 62% 2.6 31.1 75% 2.2 24.4 67% 1.2 24.5 62% -0.3 26.9 62% 2.0 23.9 50% -0.1 33.7 88% 4.1 26.5 75% 2.2 23.0 62% 1.5 44.9 62% 2.5 32.5 50% 0.6 38.5
Graft 62% 1.2 24.1 62% 1.2 28.9 88% 2.9 25.5 88% 2.2 21.4 88% 3.0 37.6 78% 2.5 15.2 50% 1.1 33.5 62% 2.5 31.4 88% 2.0 23.5 78% 2.0 23.8 62% 0.6 26.6 75% 2.0 24.2 62% -0.4 39.2 88% 3.5 23.9 75% 1.4 29.0 62% 1.9 47.0 62% 2.4 34.2 25% 0.4 41.8
Squiggle 75% 1.0 11.6 75% 1.6 26.4 50% 1.8 23.9 88% 1.6 19.3 88% 3.0 35.2 78% 2.6 15.7 62% 1.1 30.1 75% 1.6 33.2 75% 2.4 21.3 78% 1.7 25.6 38% -0.8 32.2 75% 2.5 20.6 62% 0.2 30.2 88% 3.4 29.6 50% 1.1 22.2 88% 2.7 42.9 62% 2.2 36.9 50% 0.5 36.7
PlusSixOne 62% 1.1 15.1 75% 1.0 28.3 75% 2.9 19.0 88% 1.9 22.3 88% 3.0 31.8 89% 3.4 12.1 75% 1.4 26.7 50% 1.7 32.2 62% 0.9 29.8 78% 2.4 20.8 50% 0.4 26.2 62% 1.8 21.4 50% -0.6 33.5 88% 3.0 30.6 75% 1.1 26.5 75% 2.3 43.4 62% 1.3 39.9 50% -0.4 39.4
The Footycast 62% 1.5 14.0 62% 0.9 27.1 88% 2.4 21.0 75% 1.8 23.2 88% 2.8 31.6 78% 2.8 15.2 75% 1.5 30.5 62% 1.6 31.7 62% 0.7 28.2 78% 2.1 22.2 62% 0.5 25.6 75% 1.4 22.0 62% -0.5 31.9 88% 3.5 28.9 75% 1.7 23.6 62% 1.9 44.7 62% 1.5 36.5 38% 0.4 37.0
Elo Predicts! 62% 1.6 16.2 62% 1.0 29.6 75% 2.1 23.9 75% 2.0 20.6 75% 3.3 30.4 67% 2.4 14.7 50% 1.2 27.8 62% 2.4 31.6 88% 1.4 27.6 78% 2.0 20.8 50% -0.2 28.5 50% 1.2 30.1 50% -1.3 33.5 88% 3.8 26.8 75% 1.2 22.5 62% 1.4 43.1 62% 2.1 31.1 25% -0.4 38.2
Hyperion 67% 1.4 19.3 57% -0.1 27.4 83% 2.2 28.5 71% 1.2 18.7 86% 2.7 35.9 75% 3.6 13.8 71% 1.2 31.1 86% 3.3 27.3 88% 0.6 31.5 100% 3.0 21.8 43% -0.3 28.1 71% 1.7 27.4 43% -1.5 38.7 86% 3.8 26.0 62% 0.1 27.6 71% 1.2 35.6 57% 0.5 27.1 43% -1.7 47.1
Massey Ratings 75% 1.3 21.8 50% 0.6 26.7 100% 2.3 28.1 83% 1.0 16.5 80% 1.8 41.9 83% 2.0 13.7 67% 1.2 37.2 80% 1.6 31.9 83% 2.5 25.3 71% 1.8 26.5 50% -0.2 30.5 80% 2.5 28.1 40% 0.2 32.3 80% 2.5 27.1 80% 1.7 26.9 83% 1.5 37.8 75% 2.2 26.5 50% -0.1 45.8