LEADERBOARD

After Round 17, 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9

110 29.26 26.29 76.9%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9

108 28.35 26.19 75.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9

108 28.15 27.09 75.5%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9

108 28.07 26.31 75.5%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8

108 25.59 26.93 75.5%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9

107 29.85 26.15 74.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9

107 29.25 26.02 74.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9

107 29.06 27.45 74.8%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9

107 28.06 26.10 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9

107 28.05 26.14 74.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9

105 30.59 25.68 73.4%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8

105 28.79 27.16 73.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9

104 26.12 26.80 72.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9

103 28.96 25.88 72.0%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9

103 27.63 26.52 72.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9

103 26.79 26.78 72.0%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9

103 25.76 26.20 72.0%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9

103 25.12 27.04 72.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9

102 29.44 25.69 71.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9

102 28.13 26.72 71.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9

102 19.82 28.41 71.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8

99 27.37 26.80 69.2%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8

99 25.41 27.56 69.2%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9

99 23.98 27.82 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9

97 25.23 26.90 67.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9

97 14.11 29.17 67.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9

95 22.56 27.95 66.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8

95 22.41 28.22 66.4%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Matter of Stats 94% 5.1 25.6 69% -0.5 28.4 75% 1.8 25.8 81% 4.8 27.3 93% 6.6 24.5 69% 2.5 24.2 69% 1.9 24.3 80% 1.4 21.6 62% 0.1 26.3 81% 3.0 20.0 62% 1.1 26.5 88% 5.7 28.5 62% 2.4 36.1 88% 5.5 25.8 69% 2.3 31.0 69% 1.5 25.3 94% 9.0 24.5 81% 4.4 27.2
Aggregate 94% 5.2 24.4 69% 0.1 25.8 75% 1.4 26.6 88% 4.7 26.2 87% 6.1 24.4 69% 2.5 24.9 62% 1.9 25.8 73% 1.4 22.1 50% -0.4 26.8 81% 3.3 19.5 69% 1.1 26.5 88% 5.3 28.1 62% 2.0 35.0 88% 6.0 26.0 69% 2.2 31.8 62% 1.2 24.6 94% 8.4 24.9 81% 4.1 27.6
Live Ladders 94% 5.2 26.9 69% 0.1 24.0 75% 1.4 27.4 81% 5.7 25.2 93% 5.3 26.6 69% 2.7 24.7 69% 2.4 26.2 80% 1.8 22.3 50% -0.5 28.4 75% 4.2 20.2 62% 1.1 27.1 81% 4.9 29.1 69% 1.8 35.2 88% 5.8 27.9 69% 1.8 32.7 69% 1.2 24.4 88% 7.5 28.4 81% 4.0 30.5
Punters 94% 6.1 22.7 69% -0.3 27.3 75% 0.5 26.3 81% 5.3 26.9 80% 7.1 24.4 69% 2.2 25.0 56% 1.1 26.7 87% 1.4 21.8 50% -1.3 27.4 75% 3.7 19.4 69% 0.7 28.4 88% 5.2 29.5 62% 2.0 35.0 88% 5.0 26.7 69% 2.3 31.1 69% 1.4 24.3 94% 9.1 24.1 88% 4.7 26.2
AFL Lab 100% 5.0 24.4 69% -1.2 27.3 69% 1.1 26.1 81% 4.7 26.0 80% 5.1 27.6 81% 2.0 24.2 69% 2.6 26.1 67% 1.7 24.0 56% -1.3 27.7 81% 4.1 17.9 69% 1.1 25.4 81% 3.6 31.4 69% 2.6 34.3 81% 5.9 27.1 56% 1.0 33.6 75% 2.1 23.0 94% 7.1 28.5 81% 3.9 30.2
Winnable 88% 6.5 23.1 69% -0.6 26.8 75% 0.1 27.7 81% 5.0 28.4 87% 7.9 24.2 69% 2.1 24.5 62% 1.7 26.9 67% 1.6 22.8 56% -1.3 28.4 75% 4.1 20.5 69% 0.6 26.6 94% 5.4 29.1 56% 2.2 33.0 88% 6.4 23.9 69% 3.0 30.7 62% 0.9 24.7 94% 9.1 24.9 88% 5.0 24.3
Don't Blame the Data 88% 4.2 25.5 69% 0.6 26.3 75% 1.3 27.5 81% 4.0 26.7 80% 5.9 25.0 69% 2.2 24.6 69% 2.6 24.9 73% 1.9 20.9 56% 0.1 27.1 81% 4.3 18.4 69% 1.2 25.0 88% 5.6 28.2 62% 1.9 34.4 88% 6.3 25.2 69% 2.2 31.4 62% 1.5 23.7 94% 8.3 25.5 75% 4.4 27.6
The Wooden Finger 94% 5.8 24.4 69% -0.1 30.6 75% 1.1 27.7 81% 5.1 27.0 87% 6.6 24.1 69% 2.9 24.4 69% 1.7 24.6 67% -0.0 23.8 56% -0.0 28.2 69% 3.2 24.2 75% 1.7 29.4 88% 6.0 30.1 62% 1.2 36.5 88% 6.0 24.4 81% 2.7 30.6 56% 1.1 26.8 94% 9.0 27.2 69% 4.3 29.8
Glicko Ratings 81% 5.5 24.9 69% 0.1 26.9 62% 0.1 28.7 88% 5.4 25.4 100% 7.3 22.7 69% 1.5 26.4 62% 1.7 25.5 80% 1.4 22.2 50% -1.0 27.5 75% 2.1 22.1 62% 0.9 26.1 88% 5.3 28.9 62% 2.3 33.7 88% 5.8 26.6 69% 2.8 30.0 69% 2.2 22.8 94% 8.7 23.3 81% 4.1 25.5
s10 88% 5.1 24.5 69% 0.2 25.1 75% 1.5 26.7 88% 5.0 25.3 80% 5.9 25.2 69% 2.4 24.8 62% 2.1 24.8 73% 1.6 21.8 62% -0.6 27.0 69% 3.5 19.5 62% 0.9 26.7 88% 4.9 28.3 62% 2.0 35.0 88% 6.1 25.9 69% 2.0 32.3 69% 1.4 24.1 94% 8.3 25.1 81% 3.9 28.1
Drop Kick Data 94% 5.9 23.9 69% 0.4 26.4 62% 1.7 25.5 88% 5.0 25.7 87% 6.9 24.9 69% 1.3 24.2 62% 2.2 24.0 67% 1.3 21.3 50% -0.5 27.6 75% 3.2 19.8 62% 1.3 26.7 88% 5.7 27.6 56% 2.1 35.3 88% 6.3 25.9 69% 2.2 30.9 69% 2.4 23.2 94% 9.4 23.3 75% 4.3 25.8
Informed Stats 94% 6.5 25.3 69% -0.3 33.1 69% 0.9 23.6 75% 4.0 28.1 87% 7.1 25.2 62% 3.4 23.1 69% 2.0 26.6 73% 1.3 21.3 50% -0.6 26.7 81% 3.2 21.6 62% 0.4 29.3 88% 5.9 30.8 56% 2.5 34.9 88% 4.2 27.3 62% 1.1 33.9 69% 1.7 25.4 94% 9.8 24.1 75% 4.6 28.1
Squiggle 81% 6.0 24.2 69% 0.6 27.1 69% -0.2 29.6 81% 5.8 25.5 93% 6.3 24.3 62% 2.1 25.4 62% 1.2 26.1 73% 0.5 23.7 38% -2.2 31.0 75% 2.9 20.6 56% 1.1 26.8 88% 5.2 27.8 69% 3.1 32.2 88% 4.8 28.3 56% 1.9 31.6 69% 1.3 25.0 94% 7.5 27.0 88% 4.3 25.7
Wheelo Ratings 81% 6.3 22.4 69% -0.2 28.5 62% 1.2 26.8 81% 5.1 26.3 80% 7.1 23.6 62% 2.0 25.4 56% 1.9 24.2 80% 1.1 21.4 50% -1.7 28.0 69% 2.3 21.1 56% 1.2 27.1 88% 5.7 28.1 56% 2.0 35.2 88% 5.9 25.3 69% 2.3 30.9 75% 2.7 22.4 94% 8.6 22.4 81% 4.3 26.3
AFLalytics 81% 5.5 25.4 69% -1.0 27.2 69% 1.3 27.6 88% 4.9 27.0 87% 6.4 23.6 69% 2.7 24.8 62% 1.5 26.1 73% 1.1 23.1 50% -1.0 27.4 69% 2.1 22.5 50% 1.4 26.2 88% 5.3 28.0 56% 2.5 33.8 88% 6.3 26.7 69% 2.7 31.6 62% 1.1 24.7 94% 8.4 25.4 75% 4.3 25.8
Stattraction 81% 4.3 25.7 69% 0.2 23.7 69% 1.4 27.2 69% 3.6 28.5 87% 6.1 26.0 69% 2.7 25.8 50% 1.1 28.3 67% -0.0 24.4 62% 0.5 26.5 69% 3.7 20.1 69% 1.5 26.2 88% 5.7 28.4 62% 1.6 35.8 88% 6.2 23.6 69% 2.0 32.9 69% 1.1 24.9 94% 7.9 25.3 69% 4.0 28.6
Cheap Stats 81% 4.5 23.0 69% 1.2 25.3 75% 1.3 25.1 81% 4.9 24.8 87% 5.4 26.2 62% 1.7 26.1 56% 1.4 27.4 73% 0.5 21.6 44% -0.2 28.3 75% 3.5 18.2 62% 1.1 27.4 88% 5.0 28.4 56% 1.1 36.5 88% 4.9 27.2 69% 2.3 30.3 62% 0.3 26.0 94% 8.6 23.1 75% 4.2 26.2
ZaphBot 75% 3.9 24.6 62% -0.3 28.6 75% 2.0 29.6 75% 2.6 27.9 80% 5.4 27.2 75% 2.6 23.8 62% 2.8 24.1 80% 2.2 20.9 62% -0.4 28.4 56% 3.7 21.1 62% 0.4 27.9 88% 4.0 29.7 62% 0.8 35.9 88% 6.8 23.9 62% 0.8 34.1 56% 0.9 26.7 94% 8.3 23.2 81% 3.7 28.9
The Cruncher 81% 6.6 23.3 69% -0.5 27.2 69% 1.2 26.4 81% 4.3 28.6 80% 7.4 21.8 62% 1.0 25.6 62% 2.0 24.3 80% 1.1 21.2 50% -0.6 25.5 62% 1.4 23.6 50% 1.6 26.4 88% 5.6 27.0 56% 2.0 35.0 88% 5.6 25.8 69% 2.7 29.2 69% 2.8 23.2 94% 9.8 22.2 75% 4.8 25.5
What Snoo Thinks 88% 4.3 25.1 69% -0.7 25.4 69% 0.9 27.8 81% 4.9 27.6 80% 6.2 26.1 69% 3.3 24.9 56% 2.4 25.0 80% 1.5 21.6 56% 0.1 26.6 69% 3.1 20.8 62% 0.9 26.7 81% 5.3 28.8 50% 1.6 35.0 81% 5.5 27.8 75% 2.9 31.1 56% 0.6 25.8 94% 8.9 25.9 69% 4.5 28.4
The Footycast 75% 3.5 29.2 62% -0.2 27.5 69% 1.0 26.5 81% 4.8 26.2 87% 5.1 24.6 69% 0.8 28.8 62% 0.7 27.9 67% 0.6 24.4 56% -0.7 29.5 62% 1.9 24.1 56% -0.8 31.1 88% 4.7 29.5 69% 0.9 36.6 88% 4.7 27.4 75% 2.7 30.3 62% 0.2 27.1 94% 8.3 27.6 62% 1.2 32.7
Massey Ratings 75% 4.7 24.7 69% 0.1 24.6 69% 1.6 27.3 81% 5.5 24.9 80% 6.1 25.8 56% 2.2 25.2 62% 2.3 25.4 73% 1.7 21.5 50% -0.5 26.4 69% 3.8 20.1 56% 0.4 28.2 81% 4.5 29.4 62% 1.4 36.1 81% 6.4 27.8 62% 1.3 34.1 56% 0.4 26.2 94% 9.1 24.4 69% 3.7 29.8
footycharts 81% 5.4 26.6 69% -1.4 29.3 69% 0.9 27.9 81% 4.9 26.5 87% 6.3 23.4 69% 3.3 25.1 56% 1.5 26.3 67% 0.3 24.8 38% -2.4 31.0 75% 3.7 19.8 56% 0.4 27.5 81% 5.1 30.4 50% 2.7 35.1 88% 6.2 26.6 62% 2.4 32.3 56% 0.9 26.1 81% 6.5 30.5 81% 4.2 26.5
Graft 88% 5.1 26.5 62% -0.3 32.1 75% 1.5 25.5 69% 4.4 26.5 87% 5.1 24.2 75% 3.0 23.8 56% 0.9 27.9 67% 0.8 23.6 50% -0.3 27.6 62% 2.5 21.6 56% 0.5 30.4 81% 5.2 31.8 56% 1.4 37.3 88% 5.8 24.9 69% 1.8 32.5 50% -0.6 28.2 88% 8.2 25.0 69% 2.9 30.8
Elo Predicts! 69% 3.9 26.1 62% 0.3 20.9 75% 1.3 28.6 75% 4.5 26.5 73% 4.6 28.3 75% 3.2 24.4 62% 2.1 27.4 67% 1.0 23.9 50% 0.3 23.2 62% 3.1 21.6 50% 0.1 28.2 75% 4.4 27.6 62% 1.8 35.8 81% 6.0 27.5 75% 2.0 33.2 44% -0.1 25.6 88% 7.9 25.9 75% 3.9 29.4
PlusSixOne 81% 2.5 28.1 56% 0.0 21.7 56% 0.5 29.9 75% 1.9 28.9 87% 2.6 28.1 75% 2.2 24.9 56% 1.2 30.7 60% 0.7 25.0 50% -0.1 26.4 69% 1.7 25.9 62% 0.4 27.5 81% 3.1 30.5 69% 1.4 34.8 81% 3.2 34.7 50% 1.0 35.4 56% -0.5 27.8 94% 4.4 30.7 62% 2.0 33.7
AFL Scorigami 75% 4.5 27.9 56% -0.9 24.2 69% 2.0 26.7 69% 4.1 26.8 87% 5.5 23.8 56% 1.6 26.4 50% 0.8 29.1 53% 0.2 24.7 50% -0.9 26.5 62% 1.5 25.0 62% 1.8 25.2 88% 4.5 30.0 50% 2.1 35.4 88% 5.5 30.2 69% 2.1 33.7 56% 0.5 26.7 94% 7.7 28.1 62% 2.6 32.2
Hyperion 75% 3.1 28.1 56% -0.0 26.6 69% 0.9 26.6 75% 4.3 27.0 87% 5.0 28.0 69% 2.1 25.4 56% 1.9 29.4 60% 1.6 24.1 56% -0.0 27.2 62% 3.5 19.6 62% 0.6 27.9 81% 4.8 30.5 50% -0.3 38.0 81% 6.2 28.2 69% 1.0 34.3 31% -0.8 27.0 94% 8.3 26.2 62% 2.6 33.2