LEADERBOARD

After 5 games of Round 13, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 2

85 25.6603 25.66 26.7255 26.73 76.5766 76.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 2

85 24.6591 24.66 25.9443 25.94 76.5766 76.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 3

83 16.9932 16.99 26.9632 26.96 74.7748 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 2

81 25.0615 25.06 26.9416 26.94 72.9730 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 2

81 21.2868 21.29 27.6058 27.61 72.9730 73.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 2

80 26.0018 26.00 26.5057 26.51 72.0721 72.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 2

80 24.4666 24.47 27.1810 27.18 72.0721 72.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 2

80 24.2209 24.22 27.6937 27.69 72.0721 72.1%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 2

80 23.7490 23.75 26.8497 26.85 72.0721 72.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 2

80 19.3158 19.32 27.4414 27.44 72.0721 72.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 2

79 25.4013 25.40 27.3635 27.36 71.1712 71.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 3

79 22.4863 22.49 28.5135 28.51 71.1712 71.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 2

78 23.1059 23.11 27.6571 27.66 70.2703 70.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2

78 22.0150 22.02 27.2301 27.23 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 2

78 20.3314 20.33 28.6277 28.63 †1 70.9091 70.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 2

77 23.5162 23.52 28.0680 28.07 69.3694 69.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 3

77 23.2360 23.24 27.1141 27.11 69.3694 69.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 3

77 20.1482 20.15 27.2135 27.21 69.3694 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 2

76 23.4827 23.48 28.0134 28.01 68.4685 68.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 3

76 22.7644 22.76 27.6036 27.60 68.4685 68.5%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 3

76 22.2270 22.23 27.2609 27.26 68.4685 68.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 2

76 18.8458 18.85 28.2445 28.24 68.4685 68.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 2

75 23.4626 23.46 26.8302 26.83 67.5676 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 2

75 22.8320 22.83 27.3784 27.38 67.5676 67.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 2

75 19.5163 19.52 27.4117 27.41 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 2

74 21.6593 21.66 29.0000 29.00 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 2

74 18.4171 18.42 27.8297 27.83 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 2

73 19.6501 19.65 27.6673 27.67 65.7658 65.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 3

71 18.2988 18.30 27.7941 27.79 †9 69.6078 69.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 3

71 17.8147 17.81 28.1351 28.14 63.9640 64.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 2

59 18.6493 18.65 29.0349 29.03 †25 68.6047 68.6%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 83% 2.8 16.7 62% 0.3 34.0 67% 2.1 22.5 92% 4.0 23.4 83% 5.2 28.7 85% 4.7 23.0 69% 1.2 29.5 75% 2.6 27.5 75% 1.5 30.7 69% 2.9 24.7 58% -1.0 29.5 75% 3.3 31.5 75% 0.9 25.1 83% 5.5 27.1 83% 3.7 18.6 100% 6.5 36.3 69% 2.8 27.7 77% 2.4 24.3
Wheelo Ratings 83% 2.7 12.7 54% 0.5 32.8 67% 1.6 23.7 92% 3.7 22.2 83% 5.0 29.3 92% 5.5 20.9 69% 0.3 29.7 75% 2.9 26.8 75% 2.7 29.1 77% 1.9 23.8 58% -1.3 30.1 75% 3.8 29.4 67% 0.1 25.1 83% 5.4 26.8 92% 3.9 18.0 100% 6.1 34.7 69% 3.3 28.2 69% 1.3 23.3
Holy Grail Ratings 75% 1.8 14.5 62% 0.8 33.6 67% 1.1 21.3 92% 2.8 23.6 92% 3.3 30.8 69% 2.5 26.4 62% 1.1 27.0 92% 2.6 24.2 67% 1.0 33.8 69% 1.4 24.3 67% 0.7 27.0 75% 2.2 31.1 58% 0.3 26.9 83% 3.2 30.0 92% 2.2 21.6 100% 4.2 35.0 69% 2.6 29.1 62% 0.3 24.8
s10 75% 3.7 14.1 54% 0.8 34.3 58% 1.5 24.1 92% 3.9 21.8 83% 4.6 30.6 85% 4.9 22.0 62% 0.6 29.9 67% 2.6 26.9 58% 1.7 31.9 77% 2.1 24.9 50% -0.5 29.6 75% 3.9 30.0 75% 0.6 26.2 83% 5.9 26.9 92% 4.0 20.2 92% 5.8 37.0 69% 3.1 29.2 69% 0.9 25.4
Glicko Ratings 83% 3.3 15.1 54% 0.3 35.1 58% 1.9 24.0 83% 3.4 22.9 83% 3.5 31.5 85% 4.4 22.7 69% 0.3 31.3 75% 2.2 27.5 67% 1.8 30.8 69% 1.5 27.3 50% -1.0 29.5 75% 3.3 31.5 75% 0.4 27.1 83% 5.2 28.3 83% 3.8 19.5 92% 5.4 37.4 69% 2.5 29.2 62% 0.4 25.5
Punters 75% 3.3 14.2 54% 0.4 34.8 67% 2.2 23.3 83% 3.8 24.5 83% 5.0 32.5 92% 6.3 19.9 69% 0.9 27.8 75% 3.0 25.9 67% 1.9 31.9 77% 2.0 25.0 50% -1.0 30.6 67% 3.3 30.7 58% -0.1 25.6 83% 6.2 23.8 75% 3.4 19.5 100% 7.0 32.1 69% 2.9 29.4 54% 1.5 25.2
AFLalytics 75% 3.2 15.3 54% 0.8 34.2 58% 1.5 23.5 92% 3.2 23.4 83% 4.4 31.8 77% 4.0 24.6 69% 1.6 29.2 75% 2.6 26.7 75% 2.5 30.0 85% 2.4 25.9 50% 0.4 28.5 75% 4.3 27.3 58% 0.4 26.1 83% 5.2 28.9 75% 3.1 21.7 92% 5.4 38.2 69% 3.4 28.6 54% 0.5 25.0
ZaphBot 75% 4.2 12.9 62% 1.6 33.3 67% 1.3 27.0 92% 4.8 25.3 75% 4.2 29.7 85% 6.5 18.4 54% -0.5 30.7 67% 2.0 27.8 58% 0.2 36.2 77% 1.3 24.9 58% -0.3 29.7 67% 3.6 32.2 67% -0.7 28.8 83% 7.0 26.1 92% 4.9 20.8 100% 6.7 34.6 62% 2.4 31.6 62% -0.7 28.5
Aggregate 75% 3.4 13.9 46% 1.1 34.2 67% 1.6 23.8 92% 3.7 22.0 83% 4.4 30.3 77% 4.7 21.8 62% 0.7 28.7 67% 2.7 26.5 58% 1.3 33.3 77% 2.0 24.2 58% -0.1 28.7 75% 3.6 30.1 75% 0.4 26.6 83% 5.7 26.4 92% 3.7 20.6 83% 5.2 36.9 69% 3.1 29.4 62% 0.4 25.6
Cheap Stats 67% 2.3 17.3 54% 1.1 33.5 67% 1.8 20.6 92% 2.0 25.3 75% 3.0 33.6 85% 4.8 22.4 69% 1.3 29.2 67% 2.5 26.9 58% 0.7 34.9 77% 1.1 26.2 50% 0.2 26.7 75% 2.0 32.7 67% 1.3 25.8 75% 4.2 28.2 83% 2.5 21.4 92% 4.7 34.5 77% 2.9 30.4 69% 0.4 24.4
Don't Blame the Data 75% 4.1 14.7 46% 1.0 34.4 67% 1.6 24.8 92% 4.1 21.5 83% 5.3 30.8 69% 4.7 23.7 62% 0.6 28.5 67% 3.2 25.7 58% 1.5 32.5 69% 1.5 25.7 58% -0.7 29.2 75% 4.0 31.0 75% 0.3 27.5 83% 6.8 26.5 92% 4.8 20.4 83% 4.9 37.9 69% 2.9 30.1 62% 0.3 27.2
The Wooden Finger 83% 3.6 16.0 54% 0.8 35.5 67% 1.9 26.5 100% 4.7 23.2 83% 4.6 30.7 77% 4.1 22.7 54% -0.7 31.2 67% 3.6 25.2 58% -0.1 36.7 69% 1.6 26.5 58% -0.4 29.8 75% 4.0 31.8 75% 0.0 30.8 83% 6.2 23.2 92% 4.3 19.8 75% 4.2 40.6 69% 3.2 32.2 46% -0.6 30.2
AFL Lab 67% 3.4 17.3 46% 0.9 35.4 58% 0.8 27.2 83% 3.6 20.5 83% 4.3 29.4 69% 2.6 27.1 62% 2.1 28.0 75% 3.7 23.9 58% 0.9 32.0 77% 2.8 23.5 67% 1.5 27.5 75% 3.5 30.5 75% 0.6 27.3 83% 5.2 28.3 83% 3.8 19.5 83% 4.1 39.8 69% 3.1 30.1 54% -0.7 29.9
What Snoo Thinks 75% 2.3 15.3 62% 0.6 34.7 75% 2.6 18.0 75% 2.9 24.1 83% 3.8 31.0 69% 3.9 25.5 54% 0.4 29.0 58% 2.3 27.3 58% 1.7 32.8 62% 0.5 27.4 58% -0.9 28.7 75% 4.1 28.8 67% 0.6 26.7 75% 4.7 30.2 92% 3.9 20.4 92% 5.6 36.6 69% 4.3 28.6 69% 0.7 24.6
The Cruncher 82% 4.5 17.7 54% -0.3 36.1 58% 0.8 25.3 83% 3.4 24.0 83% 4.1 31.9 85% 4.5 23.1 58% -0.6 34.2 58% 1.3 30.2 67% 1.4 31.2 69% 1.2 26.9 50% -1.9 30.7 75% 3.5 29.7 75% 0.9 28.4 83% 5.5 27.9 83% 3.7 21.8 83% 5.2 38.3 69% 2.5 30.4 62% 1.1 26.7
Matter of Stats 75% 3.9 16.0 54% 1.0 34.4 67% 1.4 22.5 92% 4.0 22.8 75% 3.8 35.4 77% 4.2 22.2 62% 0.3 31.0 75% 3.0 25.6 58% 0.1 35.7 69% 2.7 25.4 50% -1.1 30.4 67% 3.2 34.8 50% 0.2 28.0 83% 6.1 22.4 83% 4.2 21.5 100% 5.8 38.1 62% 3.3 31.4 54% 1.1 27.3
footycharts 75% 3.1 14.1 46% 1.0 34.2 67% 2.0 23.0 83% 3.5 23.7 83% 4.1 30.8 77% 5.2 21.3 77% 1.7 27.6 75% 3.3 26.3 58% 1.8 31.4 69% 2.0 25.7 50% 0.2 28.7 83% 4.6 25.8 58% -0.9 27.5 83% 4.6 29.2 83% 3.3 21.8 83% 5.1 37.8 77% 2.9 30.8 23% -1.1 27.9
PlusSixOne 75% 2.9 13.6 69% 0.9 34.7 58% 1.0 24.7 83% 3.6 24.1 83% 4.5 25.8 92% 5.7 17.7 62% 0.3 28.3 58% 2.2 27.4 58% 0.2 35.0 69% 1.7 23.6 58% 0.6 27.6 67% 3.2 27.3 50% -0.2 27.3 83% 5.1 28.3 83% 3.4 22.9 83% 4.8 37.8 62% 2.0 33.2 54% -1.5 30.3
In The Game 75% 3.7 18.2 54% 0.3 34.7 50% 1.3 23.6 92% 4.2 24.2 83% 5.1 31.9 77% 4.9 21.9 54% -0.1 32.4 67% 2.9 26.3 75% 1.1 33.9 62% 2.2 22.7 42% -1.9 32.8 67% 3.9 33.3 50% -1.6 28.6 83% 6.9 23.1 75% 4.1 22.7 100% 8.4 31.7 69% 0.3 35.4 62% 1.3 26.4
Informed Stats 75% 3.6 15.7 54% 0.9 36.3 58% 2.5 25.4 75% 3.1 23.2 83% 4.8 28.4 85% 5.6 16.3 62% -1.0 30.4 58% 1.9 29.2 67% 1.0 35.8 69% 2.2 25.5 50% -1.9 30.2 75% 3.6 31.8 67% -0.2 27.2 83% 7.2 24.0 83% 3.9 22.8 75% 4.3 38.9 69% 3.5 29.8 46% 0.4 26.1
Stattraction 75% 3.5 13.8 54% 1.1 34.5 67% 1.2 26.0 92% 4.4 20.8 83% 4.0 31.4 77% 4.5 21.1 54% -0.2 28.4 67% 2.9 26.9 58% 0.6 34.3 62% 1.4 24.9 58% -0.1 28.3 67% 3.3 31.0 58% 0.8 26.8 83% 5.9 24.7 83% 4.3 20.7 75% 3.9 39.0 69% 3.4 29.8 54% -0.2 27.9
AFL Scorigami 75% 3.3 16.8 46% -0.5 34.5 83% 1.7 20.9 83% 2.2 24.2 67% 3.4 33.1 77% 4.6 25.3 54% -0.2 32.7 50% 2.2 27.6 67% -1.0 34.3 69% 2.2 24.8 58% -0.1 29.1 75% 3.3 30.4 67% 0.7 24.9 83% 5.7 28.4 83% 3.2 23.9 83% 4.0 39.2 62% 2.2 31.7 54% 0.8 26.2
Winnable 67% 3.4 14.1 54% -0.4 34.2 42% 0.0 24.2 75% 3.4 23.0 83% 4.7 30.4 85% 4.7 22.8 62% 1.3 27.9 67% 2.5 28.6 58% 2.6 30.0 77% 2.3 23.2 42% -1.2 30.5 75% 5.1 25.6 58% 0.9 23.7 83% 4.9 31.7 58% 2.9 22.5 100% 5.5 38.2 69% 3.7 28.3 62% 0.6 24.4
Live Ladders 67% 2.7 16.5 38% 1.3 33.4 58% 1.8 20.2 83% 3.3 21.2 83% 4.2 31.2 69% 3.7 26.1 62% 2.2 26.1 67% 2.5 28.3 67% 2.1 33.0 69% 2.1 24.9 67% 1.0 26.2 83% 3.8 29.6 58% 0.0 26.8 83% 4.5 32.6 67% 2.8 23.2 83% 4.6 37.2 77% 3.5 29.9 38% -0.4 26.2
HBin 75% 3.0 17.1 62% 2.0 32.3 58% 0.9 25.3 83% 3.6 20.5 83% 3.1 33.0 77% 3.9 23.7 54% -0.5 28.8 58% 2.4 27.5 67% 0.7 34.3 69% 2.0 23.5 42% -2.1 29.5 67% 3.2 30.7 58% -0.6 28.7 83% 6.7 25.9 92% 4.3 19.9 83% 5.0 36.2 69% 1.7 31.5 38% -0.2 25.1
Graft 67% 2.7 20.1 46% 1.5 35.5 67% 1.7 29.7 83% 3.7 24.5 83% 3.7 33.4 77% 4.2 19.8 46% 0.6 30.8 58% 2.4 28.6 67% 1.4 33.2 69% 1.5 25.9 58% 0.8 29.5 75% 3.4 29.0 67% -0.2 31.3 83% 5.4 23.8 83% 3.0 25.4 75% 4.2 38.2 69% 3.4 33.2 31% -0.3 30.0
The Footycast 67% 2.6 15.1 54% 1.0 33.9 67% 1.5 24.7 75% 3.2 24.6 83% 3.5 28.9 85% 4.3 22.5 54% 0.5 30.7 58% 1.8 28.0 50% 0.1 35.0 69% 1.2 25.8 58% 0.6 27.1 75% 2.7 29.2 58% -0.4 26.3 83% 5.1 28.1 83% 3.0 23.1 75% 4.0 39.5 69% 2.5 30.0 38% -0.4 28.0
Squiggle 75% 2.3 13.7 54% 1.6 32.6 42% 0.3 26.4 83% 3.1 23.4 83% 3.2 31.7 77% 4.0 23.6 46% 0.5 29.3 67% 1.7 29.1 58% 2.0 28.7 69% 1.2 27.0 42% -0.7 31.1 75% 3.8 29.6 58% 0.1 25.5 83% 5.0 28.6 67% 3.1 20.6 92% 5.4 38.5 69% 3.5 30.6 46% -0.6 27.4
Hyperion 80% 3.2 15.3 50% 0.3 34.0 60% 0.3 31.8 82% 3.1 20.8 82% 4.4 29.4 83% 6.1 19.3 67% 0.3 30.7 73% 3.4 24.3 67% -0.4 38.1 83% 2.7 23.2 45% 0.2 28.8 73% 2.8 33.1 55% -0.7 30.5 82% 6.1 24.8 75% 2.6 23.2 82% 3.5 32.6 67% 0.9 25.3 50% -2.2 33.9
Elo Predicts! 67% 3.1 15.8 54% 0.6 33.8 58% 0.3 26.0 75% 3.3 23.2 67% 4.1 28.0 69% 4.0 20.1 46% -0.3 28.5 67% 2.4 29.8 75% 0.4 37.5 69% 1.3 23.2 58% 0.1 27.5 58% 2.5 35.9 58% -0.6 28.5 83% 5.6 27.2 83% 3.4 21.3 75% 3.7 38.8 62% 2.7 32.5 31% -1.1 29.0
Massey Ratings 75% 2.8 18.0 36% 0.3 35.9 67% 0.9 30.1 90% 3.2 19.8 78% 3.2 32.2 80% 3.9 23.1 55% 0.1 33.5 67% 1.6 27.6 60% 0.5 36.9 64% 1.3 27.2 50% 0.2 31.0 78% 3.8 36.7 56% 0.6 25.8 78% 5.1 24.7 89% 3.6 25.3 90% 4.1 34.5 78% 3.1 28.1 55% -0.8 29.3