LEADERBOARD

At end of 2025.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 1 1 0

163 48.0936 48.09 25.9680 25.97 75.4630 75.5%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

161 48.4613 48.46 26.3058 26.31 74.5370 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 2 1 0

161 46.9400 46.94 26.0003 26.00 74.5370 74.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 8 2 1 1 0

160 45.1104 45.11 27.0370 27.04 74.0741 74.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 51.7316 51.73 26.1569 26.16 73.6111 73.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 1 0

159 48.0301 48.03 26.2402 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 47.6763 47.68 26.2407 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 8 2 1 1 0

159 41.8460 41.85 26.6062 26.61 73.6111 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

158 47.7363 47.74 26.0725 26.07 73.1481 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 2 0

157 46.5408 46.54 27.6343 27.63 72.6852 72.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 1 1 2 0

156 47.1341 47.13 26.3241 26.32 72.2222 72.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 3 1 2 0

155 45.2877 45.29 27.0762 27.08 71.7593 71.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 1 1 1 0

155 44.0639 44.06 26.7647 26.76 71.7593 71.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 1 0

154 50.2490 50.25 26.0363 26.04 71.2963 71.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 1 1 2 0

154 50.0600 50.06 26.5324 26.53 71.2963 71.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 0 1 0

154 46.9503 46.95 27.9722 27.97 71.2963 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

154 46.5200 46.52 26.4090 26.41 71.2963 71.3%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 2 0

154 45.5319 45.53 26.8519 26.85 71.2963 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 0 1 0

153 50.3366 50.34 26.0007 26.00 70.8333 70.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

153 50.1084 50.11 25.8449 25.84 70.8333 70.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 1 2 2 1

153 42.9920 42.99 27.6852 27.69 70.8333 70.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 1 1 1 0

151 40.4665 40.47 27.7407 27.74 69.9074 69.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 1 0 0

151 35.7249 35.72 27.8425 27.84 †2 70.5607 70.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 2 1 2 0

150 43.8748 43.87 27.0602 27.06 69.4444 69.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 8 2 0

149 40.5878 40.59 27.5907 27.59 †4 70.2830 70.3%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 1 1 1

149 25.2310 25.23 29.0698 29.07 †1 69.3023 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 8

148 44.1782 44.18 26.9371 26.94 †9 71.4976 71.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 6 3 2 1

145 39.9262 39.93 28.0767 28.08 †1 67.4419 67.4%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Don't Blame the Data 80% 5.9 27.7 63% 0.2 29.6 83% 3.4 24.1 72% 4.6 25.0 83% 9.4 25.7 67% 2.2 22.6 73% 6.8 26.5 72% 2.9 26.7 62% 1.6 29.1 81% 6.3 18.9 74% 3.9 22.0 91% 9.8 26.8 70% 4.3 33.3 83% 8.7 25.4 74% 4.7 24.4 70% 3.3 22.8 91% 12.6 27.2 74% 5.5 29.5
Matter of Stats 84% 7.1 28.6 56% -2.0 31.9 78% 4.6 22.4 68% 4.4 26.4 91% 11.3 24.9 62% 1.7 22.9 73% 6.5 26.0 72% 2.6 26.0 62% 1.9 28.6 77% 5.0 20.9 65% 3.6 23.7 91% 9.9 27.4 70% 5.0 34.3 83% 8.1 25.3 74% 5.2 25.3 74% 3.3 24.2 91% 13.9 25.2 74% 4.8 29.0
Glicko Ratings 80% 7.6 26.2 59% -2.3 31.7 70% 2.7 24.4 72% 4.5 26.1 96% 11.5 24.2 67% 1.8 23.6 69% 6.1 26.5 76% 2.1 26.7 54% 0.3 30.0 77% 3.9 21.6 65% 3.1 22.6 91% 9.6 27.1 70% 5.3 32.3 83% 8.4 26.4 74% 5.7 24.4 74% 4.9 22.1 91% 13.9 24.3 78% 4.7 27.4
Live Ladders 84% 8.2 28.1 59% -1.4 29.1 78% 3.4 24.8 72% 5.0 25.0 91% 8.7 27.3 62% 2.1 23.2 73% 6.7 27.4 72% 3.0 27.5 58% 1.0 30.4 81% 6.5 20.6 65% 3.1 23.8 83% 8.9 28.0 74% 4.8 32.7 78% 7.5 27.5 70% 3.9 25.1 70% 2.3 23.8 87% 11.3 30.8 78% 5.2 32.0
Punters 84% 9.0 25.9 59% -1.7 30.6 78% 3.9 22.6 64% 5.1 26.9 83% 12.2 24.8 62% 2.4 23.2 65% 6.0 28.0 72% 2.3 26.5 54% 1.0 28.2 73% 6.2 19.2 70% 3.6 25.0 91% 10.1 27.5 70% 5.3 32.9 83% 7.6 27.1 74% 5.9 25.8 74% 3.9 23.3 91% 14.2 25.8 83% 6.5 27.2
Winnable 80% 8.5 26.3 59% -1.9 30.3 78% 2.7 24.0 64% 3.4 28.1 87% 12.0 25.2 67% 1.9 22.5 69% 6.1 28.4 64% 2.3 27.0 58% -0.1 30.5 73% 5.7 21.2 70% 2.8 23.6 96% 9.9 27.8 65% 5.6 31.2 83% 8.5 24.2 74% 5.6 23.6 70% 3.5 23.3 91% 13.8 27.4 83% 5.7 27.3
Aggregate 84% 7.7 27.0 59% -1.2 30.1 78% 3.9 23.1 68% 4.4 26.0 87% 10.2 25.3 62% 2.4 22.9 69% 6.3 27.1 64% 2.4 26.9 54% 1.4 28.9 77% 5.3 19.9 70% 3.5 23.7 91% 9.5 26.9 70% 4.7 33.5 83% 8.4 26.2 74% 5.0 25.2 70% 3.3 23.2 91% 13.0 26.8 78% 5.3 29.5
AFL Lab 88% 7.3 26.0 59% -1.7 30.1 74% 3.0 24.1 68% 3.7 25.8 83% 8.3 28.0 67% 0.1 23.9 73% 7.3 26.1 64% 2.9 27.7 62% -0.1 29.7 81% 5.9 19.4 70% 3.0 22.0 83% 7.8 29.4 70% 5.2 32.2 74% 7.8 26.8 65% 3.3 25.7 78% 3.8 21.6 91% 11.3 28.9 78% 4.7 32.0
s10 80% 7.6 26.7 59% -0.8 29.3 78% 3.9 23.3 68% 4.6 25.1 83% 10.0 25.9 62% 2.1 22.8 69% 6.6 26.4 64% 2.8 26.6 62% 1.2 29.0 69% 5.6 19.8 65% 3.2 23.6 91% 9.1 27.1 70% 4.7 33.3 83% 8.5 26.0 74% 4.6 25.3 74% 3.6 22.4 91% 12.8 27.0 78% 5.2 29.9
The Wooden Finger 84% 8.4 29.2 59% -2.1 33.5 78% 3.8 23.9 68% 3.9 28.2 87% 11.0 24.5 58% 1.0 24.0 73% 6.3 26.9 60% 0.4 28.2 62% 2.2 29.2 69% 5.5 23.0 74% 4.2 26.2 91% 10.4 28.3 70% 3.8 34.3 83% 8.6 26.3 78% 5.4 25.6 61% 2.3 25.4 91% 13.4 28.9 65% 4.7 31.3
ZaphBot 72% 5.5 26.4 56% -0.6 30.5 78% 4.4 24.9 72% 3.3 25.1 87% 10.3 26.4 62% 3.5 21.7 69% 7.3 25.5 72% 3.9 25.5 62% 1.7 29.9 58% 5.8 19.9 65% 2.4 24.1 91% 7.8 28.6 70% 3.5 34.4 87% 9.5 24.1 70% 3.8 27.7 65% 3.9 24.2 91% 12.8 25.2 78% 5.5 30.2
Stattraction 76% 6.8 29.4 63% -0.4 28.3 74% 4.0 23.1 60% 3.9 27.6 87% 9.8 26.0 67% 2.4 23.8 62% 5.1 30.0 64% 0.2 29.0 62% 1.6 29.3 69% 5.9 20.1 70% 3.9 24.2 91% 10.0 27.3 70% 3.8 34.4 83% 8.9 26.3 74% 4.7 26.3 70% 2.8 23.9 91% 12.2 27.7 65% 5.1 30.8
Squiggle 76% 8.0 28.0 56% -0.6 30.9 74% 2.2 25.2 68% 4.8 27.0 91% 10.2 25.2 62% 1.7 23.4 65% 5.6 26.9 72% 1.7 27.9 46% -0.6 31.6 73% 4.3 21.5 61% 3.6 23.9 91% 9.4 26.6 70% 5.6 31.0 83% 7.1 27.6 65% 4.4 24.8 74% 3.7 22.6 91% 11.8 28.7 78% 5.2 28.7
Drop Kick Data 84% 8.4 26.3 52% -1.7 31.1 70% 4.5 22.2 68% 4.6 25.7 87% 11.8 26.1 62% 1.6 22.8 69% 6.7 26.1 64% 2.0 26.9 54% 0.8 29.9 65% 5.2 19.9 65% 3.1 23.9 91% 10.0 26.5 65% 4.8 33.4 83% 8.9 26.1 74% 5.2 25.9 74% 5.0 22.5 91% 14.3 24.9 70% 5.3 28.2
Massey Ratings 72% 7.7 27.7 67% -0.4 28.4 78% 4.5 23.8 72% 5.6 24.6 83% 10.4 26.1 54% 1.8 23.0 69% 7.0 27.0 64% 3.2 26.5 54% 1.9 28.3 69% 6.8 19.9 70% 3.6 24.5 87% 9.2 28.1 70% 4.2 34.6 78% 9.4 26.8 74% 4.3 26.2 65% 2.4 24.2 91% 14.1 26.7 70% 4.6 31.5
Informed Stats 84% 9.6 28.8 48% -5.3 37.7 74% 3.9 22.3 60% 1.4 29.8 87% 12.1 25.7 62% 4.4 24.3 73% 6.3 26.8 64% 0.5 29.7 54% 1.3 28.9 73% 4.1 22.7 65% 2.3 26.3 91% 10.9 29.4 65% 4.8 34.0 83% 7.3 28.1 70% 4.5 28.8 74% 4.9 23.5 91% 14.9 26.1 70% 6.1 29.6
AFLalytics 76% 7.5 27.2 59% -3.2 31.7 74% 3.8 23.9 72% 3.7 27.2 87% 10.9 25.0 62% 1.6 23.2 69% 6.2 26.8 68% 2.4 26.9 54% 0.6 29.7 69% 4.0 21.9 57% 4.1 22.9 91% 9.7 26.8 65% 5.7 31.9 83% 8.9 26.2 70% 5.8 25.4 65% 3.4 23.8 91% 13.1 26.4 74% 4.9 28.0
Cheap Stats 76% 7.5 25.4 56% 0.1 30.0 78% 3.7 22.3 72% 5.8 25.8 87% 9.8 26.9 58% 3.2 24.4 65% 5.4 28.2 64% 1.4 26.5 54% 1.7 29.6 69% 4.3 20.3 65% 2.9 25.2 87% 8.3 28.3 65% 3.1 36.2 87% 7.6 27.0 74% 5.1 26.0 65% 1.8 26.8 96% 13.7 25.3 70% 5.7 29.6
The Cruncher 76% 9.1 26.4 52% -3.5 32.0 74% 4.2 23.7 68% 3.6 27.8 83% 12.0 24.1 62% 1.2 23.8 69% 7.0 25.5 72% 1.7 26.5 54% 1.5 27.5 65% 3.1 22.9 57% 4.2 24.0 91% 10.7 25.7 65% 4.8 33.1 83% 8.6 26.4 74% 6.4 25.0 74% 5.8 21.5 91% 15.1 23.6 70% 5.1 27.7
Wheelo Ratings 76% 9.3 25.1 56% -2.5 32.3 70% 4.0 23.2 64% 4.4 26.5 83% 12.2 25.0 58% 1.6 24.1 65% 6.8 25.4 68% 1.5 26.3 54% 0.1 29.0 69% 5.0 20.1 61% 3.5 23.6 91% 10.6 26.4 65% 5.1 33.4 83% 8.7 26.3 74% 5.4 25.4 78% 5.6 20.9 91% 13.7 24.4 74% 5.3 27.6
Hyperion 80% 6.0 29.0 56% 0.0 29.4 78% 3.3 23.6 72% 5.2 25.6 87% 7.6 29.0 62% 2.1 22.6 69% 5.7 30.7 56% 3.0 28.2 58% 2.1 28.9 73% 5.9 19.4 74% 3.8 24.7 87% 8.9 28.8 61% 2.1 37.3 83% 8.4 27.3 78% 3.6 26.3 48% 0.8 25.2 96% 13.2 28.1 61% 4.2 34.9
Graft 80% 7.5 30.6 56% -1.8 34.5 78% 3.5 22.3 64% 4.0 27.4 87% 8.6 24.8 67% 2.3 23.0 65% 4.7 28.8 64% 1.8 27.3 54% 1.6 29.4 69% 4.6 21.2 61% 2.3 26.7 87% 8.7 29.3 65% 4.3 33.9 83% 7.9 27.0 70% 3.9 26.7 57% 0.7 27.1 87% 12.3 27.3 70% 4.0 31.4
The Footycast 75% 6.1 29.4 54% -1.5 30.5 74% 3.1 23.3 64% 3.8 27.2 87% 8.3 25.8 62% 0.6 25.3 65% 4.0 29.8 58% 1.5 28.1 58% 1.5 30.5 64% 3.4 22.7 65% 1.4 27.0 91% 7.9 28.1 74% 3.0 35.3 83% 6.5 27.1 78% 4.7 23.2 65% 1.6 25.6 91% 12.4 29.6 65% 2.9 32.4
Elo Predicts! 68% 6.4 28.2 56% -0.5 25.9 83% 3.6 25.5 64% 4.4 24.8 78% 7.9 28.9 71% 3.1 22.4 65% 6.1 30.5 64% 1.8 29.0 58% 2.4 26.3 69% 5.4 21.8 61% 3.0 25.4 78% 8.3 27.2 70% 4.0 35.5 74% 8.0 28.0 78% 4.5 26.3 57% 1.4 23.0 87% 12.5 27.7 74% 5.5 31.1
footycharts 79% 8.2 29.6 60% -3.7 32.3 74% 3.0 24.4 71% 3.9 27.3 87% 10.5 24.8 62% 1.2 24.0 64% 5.4 28.5 62% 0.1 28.5 46% -1.6 32.9 79% 6.2 19.4 61% 2.2 23.6 87% 9.5 28.9 61% 5.7 32.6 83% 8.6 27.8 70% 4.9 26.5 61% 1.7 26.3 83% 11.1 30.3 78% 4.4 28.6
PlusSixOne 76% 3.6 28.1 54% -0.3 26.2 65% 1.6 27.8 64% 1.7 27.4 87% 4.5 30.1 67% 1.9 23.5 68% 3.9 32.8 52% 1.6 30.4 54% 1.1 29.4 73% 3.1 24.6 74% 2.2 24.6 87% 5.4 29.9 74% 3.1 34.6 78% 4.6 33.4 61% 2.1 26.2 61% 0.3 27.0 91% 7.1 33.2 65% 3.0 35.2
What Snoo Thinks 87% 6.9 29.1 52% -2.4 28.3 74% 2.8 25.5 70% 4.2 27.0 83% 9.7 26.6 65% 2.4 24.7 65% 6.3 26.0 70% 1.8 28.2 61% 1.1 29.8 74% 4.7 20.8 70% 3.6 23.5 87% 9.6 27.9 61% 4.0 33.9 78% 7.7 28.1 74% 5.2 24.3 61% 2.3 23.8 91% 13.4 27.6 65% 5.1 29.8
AFL Scorigami 76% 7.8 28.2 50% -2.1 27.9 74% 3.9 24.7 60% 4.0 25.2 87% 10.0 25.1 54% 1.2 24.5 60% 4.8 31.2 56% 0.5 30.3 58% 0.9 29.2 65% 3.6 23.9 65% 2.8 24.2 87% 8.0 30.0 61% 4.5 35.6 78% 7.4 30.3 74% 4.5 25.2 61% 2.2 25.7 91% 12.2 31.4 61% 3.7 33.2