LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 26, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0 1

158 50.5679 50.57 25.2779 25.28 74.8815 74.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0 0

157 34.5321 34.53 25.5564 25.56 74.4076 74.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0 1

156 53.3502 53.35 25.0683 25.07 73.9336 73.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1 1

156 52.4810 52.48 25.2023 25.20 73.9336 73.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0 1

155 51.1924 51.19 25.9858 25.99 73.4597 73.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0 1

155 50.7335 50.73 24.7866 24.79 73.4597 73.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0 1

155 48.3330 48.33 25.4770 25.48 73.4597 73.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

154 50.6689 50.67 25.1316 25.13 72.9858 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0 1

153 52.0760 52.08 24.9530 24.95 72.5118 72.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

153 49.7136 49.71 25.8436 25.84 72.5118 72.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †4 73.9130 73.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

152 54.2986 54.30 25.5840 25.58 72.0379 72.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 1

152 51.5603 51.56 26.2938 26.29 72.0379 72.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1 1

151 39.7584 39.76 26.3667 26.37 †1 71.9048 71.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

150 52.0880 52.09 25.7243 25.72 71.0900 71.1%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1 1

150 49.6948 49.69 25.3296 25.33 71.0900 71.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0 1

150 48.0197 48.02 25.4156 25.42 71.0900 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1 1

150 45.7607 45.76 26.2070 26.21 71.0900 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1 1

150 41.0282 41.03 25.7858 25.79 71.0900 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 1

149 49.8944 49.89 25.3955 25.40 70.6161 70.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0 1

149 48.8851 48.89 25.6247 25.62 70.6161 70.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1 0

149 46.1236 46.12 25.0690 25.07 †1 70.9524 71.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0 1

148 49.7423 49.74 26.0811 26.08 †5 71.8447 71.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1 1

146 48.8005 48.80 26.4857 26.49 69.1943 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1 1

146 46.2243 46.22 26.5498 26.55 69.1943 69.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1 1

146 46.1471 46.15 26.4550 26.45 69.1943 69.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1 1

146 43.1517 43.15 26.0792 26.08 †9 72.2772 72.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1 0

145 45.5195 45.52 26.0142 26.01 68.7204 68.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0 1

144 40.0837 40.08 26.9888 26.99 68.2464 68.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0 1

142 42.6150 42.62 26.2104 26.21 67.2986 67.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1 1

134 46.1618 46.16 26.3602 26.36 †25 72.0430 72.0%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 74% 4.1 25.3 70% 4.4 34.6 68% 2.9 28.8 75% 5.0 21.5 83% 10.5 27.0 75% 6.5 22.2 67% 3.9 24.0 74% 5.4 22.1 65% -0.8 27.8 75% 6.1 28.1 54% -0.5 25.1 83% 7.6 22.6 78% 5.0 23.1 87% 13.2 21.9 83% 6.0 21.3 96% 10.7 32.8 78% 8.6 22.4 67% 2.5 24.5
Holy Grail Ratings 70% 3.2 24.8 65% 3.3 35.1 64% 2.1 27.7 83% 3.6 19.9 91% 7.4 28.2 67% 4.0 24.8 67% 3.1 22.5 78% 3.8 21.5 61% 0.6 29.4 75% 3.4 28.2 62% 1.0 25.1 83% 4.3 21.4 70% 2.4 26.0 91% 8.5 23.9 87% 4.0 22.6 91% 6.8 32.9 83% 6.3 22.5 54% 1.1 23.6
s10 70% 6.0 23.2 65% 4.1 35.8 60% 2.6 28.6 79% 5.9 20.1 87% 10.3 26.6 75% 7.2 21.2 71% 4.5 22.9 65% 4.5 22.9 57% 0.0 28.3 79% 5.4 28.5 54% 0.4 24.9 83% 8.6 22.3 83% 4.7 23.3 91% 14.0 21.9 83% 6.8 21.3 91% 10.3 32.4 83% 9.8 22.7 58% 1.6 24.5
Punters 70% 5.5 23.5 65% 3.8 35.5 68% 3.0 29.4 79% 5.3 21.2 87% 10.3 27.9 79% 9.1 21.3 75% 4.7 22.6 70% 4.2 22.9 61% -0.4 28.9 79% 5.4 27.7 54% 0.8 24.6 78% 7.2 23.5 74% 3.7 23.5 87% 14.1 21.0 78% 5.9 21.0 96% 10.8 31.0 78% 9.0 23.3 54% 2.5 24.8
ZaphBot 74% 6.9 22.2 65% 4.9 35.2 64% 2.5 30.4 79% 6.9 22.6 83% 10.2 28.2 75% 7.1 21.3 62% 3.7 24.8 74% 4.7 21.7 52% -2.7 31.3 75% 4.4 29.3 58% -0.8 27.1 78% 8.2 24.3 74% 2.3 26.6 87% 15.2 21.7 87% 8.0 20.3 100% 12.0 29.5 74% 8.9 25.1 62% 0.1 25.9
Wheelo Ratings 74% 5.1 22.1 57% 3.3 35.4 64% 2.2 29.1 75% 4.8 21.0 87% 10.5 25.8 79% 8.2 20.6 71% 3.6 23.6 65% 4.5 23.1 61% 0.4 27.3 75% 5.1 27.4 54% -0.0 24.8 83% 8.5 21.7 78% 4.1 22.4 91% 13.2 22.0 78% 6.1 21.0 91% 10.2 31.9 83% 9.8 22.3 58% 1.7 24.4
Glicko Ratings 74% 4.8 24.6 65% 3.5 36.0 64% 3.3 28.2 71% 5.4 20.7 83% 8.6 28.0 79% 7.7 20.5 71% 4.1 23.4 70% 3.4 24.1 57% 0.7 27.3 75% 4.9 29.2 58% -0.1 24.5 83% 7.7 23.9 78% 4.7 22.7 91% 13.0 23.0 78% 6.4 21.1 91% 9.7 32.6 83% 9.2 22.8 54% -0.1 26.1
Aggregate 70% 5.6 23.3 61% 4.0 36.2 64% 3.0 28.3 79% 5.5 19.9 87% 9.8 26.8 71% 6.8 21.4 71% 4.3 22.4 65% 4.4 22.9 57% -0.3 29.3 79% 5.1 28.0 58% 1.0 24.5 83% 7.9 22.1 83% 4.1 24.4 87% 13.4 21.6 83% 6.5 21.5 87% 9.6 32.7 78% 9.1 22.8 54% 1.5 24.3
AFLalytics 70% 4.7 24.3 61% 3.7 35.2 60% 2.7 27.9 71% 4.8 21.3 87% 9.9 27.1 71% 6.8 22.8 75% 5.0 22.8 65% 3.9 23.4 70% 1.6 26.2 83% 5.9 28.6 50% 1.9 24.3 83% 8.6 20.6 74% 4.0 23.5 91% 13.3 22.0 74% 6.2 21.9 91% 9.5 31.9 83% 10.0 21.3 50% 1.9 24.2
Informed Stats 74% 6.5 24.0 61% 3.9 38.0 64% 3.8 30.1 75% 5.3 20.9 87% 9.9 24.9 75% 6.0 18.8 71% 2.7 24.0 70% 5.0 22.1 52% -3.3 33.2 71% 6.3 27.9 54% -0.9 26.1 83% 8.5 23.9 74% 3.1 24.8 91% 15.7 20.7 83% 6.1 24.0 87% 9.5 33.8 83% 9.7 23.4 54% 1.6 24.8
What Snoo Thinks 74% 4.1 25.0 65% 2.1 38.7 78% 5.2 24.6 74% 5.2 20.6 87% 9.7 28.4 70% 6.1 24.2 65% 3.5 22.7 61% 3.3 25.5 61% 1.7 27.4 70% 3.7 29.5 57% -0.5 25.4 83% 8.1 21.7 78% 3.8 26.2 83% 12.9 22.5 91% 7.6 19.9 87% 9.3 32.8 78% 9.8 22.5 70% 2.0 23.8
Don't Blame the Data 70% 6.5 23.9 61% 4.5 36.2 64% 2.9 28.0 79% 6.1 20.5 87% 11.3 26.2 67% 6.7 22.9 71% 4.7 21.8 61% 4.7 23.4 57% -0.3 28.8 75% 4.7 29.1 54% -1.1 25.7 83% 9.2 23.7 83% 4.7 25.3 87% 15.3 21.7 83% 8.1 21.1 87% 9.6 32.9 78% 10.0 24.1 54% 0.8 25.4
The Wooden Finger 74% 5.8 25.1 61% 3.4 38.0 64% 3.7 29.6 83% 6.5 20.3 87% 10.6 27.1 71% 6.1 21.9 67% 3.5 23.7 65% 5.1 22.2 52% -1.5 31.0 75% 4.0 30.0 58% 1.1 24.9 83% 9.4 22.8 78% 4.0 29.2 91% 14.3 20.9 83% 7.4 20.3 78% 9.3 35.3 83% 9.5 24.3 46% 0.9 26.8
Cheap Stats 65% 4.3 25.0 61% 3.2 36.5 72% 3.0 26.8 79% 3.7 21.2 83% 7.5 30.6 74% 6.3 23.9 70% 3.8 25.6 61% 3.2 24.7 48% -1.4 31.0 75% 3.4 30.6 54% 1.4 23.9 83% 4.8 24.8 74% 4.4 24.8 83% 10.7 22.4 83% 5.0 21.7 87% 7.5 33.1 83% 7.6 24.3 62% 1.2 23.9
Matter of Stats 70% 6.5 24.2 65% 4.4 35.4 64% 2.8 27.7 79% 6.4 19.9 83% 10.1 28.5 71% 6.6 21.0 71% 4.4 22.9 70% 4.1 23.2 52% -1.2 30.4 75% 5.7 29.7 54% -0.8 25.5 78% 8.3 24.8 65% 4.7 25.2 87% 14.0 20.1 78% 7.2 21.5 96% 10.2 33.8 74% 9.5 23.7 50% 1.3 25.7
Winnable 65% 5.8 23.2 61% 3.0 35.4 56% 1.6 28.8 79% 5.3 20.4 87% 10.1 26.9 75% 6.7 22.2 71% 5.1 21.7 65% 4.2 23.6 52% 0.7 27.9 75% 4.9 29.1 54% 0.4 25.2 83% 9.4 20.0 70% 4.6 23.4 91% 12.6 25.4 65% 5.4 23.0 96% 9.5 33.5 83% 9.3 22.3 54% 0.7 24.0
HBin 74% 5.4 24.3 65% 4.9 34.9 68% 2.4 29.6 75% 5.7 19.3 87% 8.6 28.8 75% 7.2 21.7 62% 3.2 23.2 70% 5.4 22.5 57% -2.9 30.3 75% 5.2 28.5 50% -0.3 24.7 74% 8.1 22.6 74% 3.5 24.2 87% 15.0 22.6 83% 7.5 21.4 83% 9.1 31.4 74% 7.8 24.0 50% 0.4 23.4
AFL Lab 65% 5.8 26.1 61% 4.1 35.8 60% 2.6 30.0 79% 5.1 20.1 87% 9.5 26.1 71% 4.0 25.2 71% 5.5 21.9 65% 4.4 22.6 52% -0.8 29.4 79% 5.2 28.0 58% 1.2 25.9 83% 7.5 22.8 74% 3.3 26.0 87% 12.7 23.6 74% 6.0 22.5 83% 8.1 34.1 78% 8.0 24.5 54% -0.6 27.3
The Footycast 65% 4.6 24.0 65% 3.4 36.3 72% 2.9 28.8 75% 4.5 20.3 87% 8.3 26.7 75% 5.7 22.6 67% 3.4 23.9 70% 4.0 23.1 43% -1.1 30.5 75% 4.1 28.7 62% 1.8 24.0 83% 5.9 20.9 70% 2.3 25.5 87% 11.5 23.0 83% 5.4 23.0 78% 7.4 34.0 78% 7.5 23.3 46% 0.5 25.6
Stattraction 70% 5.3 23.9 61% 3.7 37.3 64% 2.4 29.5 83% 6.4 19.0 87% 9.9 26.7 71% 5.8 21.7 67% 4.1 21.9 65% 3.8 24.5 52% -0.5 29.5 71% 4.4 28.7 62% 1.6 23.9 74% 8.1 22.5 70% 4.7 25.3 87% 13.6 21.5 83% 8.0 20.1 78% 8.9 33.1 74% 8.7 23.5 54% 1.1 24.8
footycharts 70% 5.1 25.1 57% 3.3 36.7 64% 4.0 28.1 71% 4.7 20.9 87% 9.8 27.1 71% 7.4 22.0 79% 5.1 22.2 70% 4.5 22.9 52% -0.3 28.9 75% 4.5 30.0 54% 0.9 25.1 83% 9.4 19.4 70% 2.2 26.3 91% 12.9 23.8 78% 6.0 21.8 87% 9.8 32.3 83% 8.7 22.6 33% -0.3 26.2
PlusSixOne 70% 4.4 23.8 70% 4.1 34.9 67% 2.8 27.6 67% 4.3 21.2 87% 10.5 24.3 79% 7.1 19.9 61% 2.8 23.4 70% 5.8 20.6 48% -1.4 30.4 75% 5.2 26.2 54% 1.3 25.2 70% 5.3 21.4 65% 3.0 24.9 91% 12.4 22.4 83% 6.8 22.0 87% 9.7 31.7 78% 8.6 24.9 58% -0.5 26.5
The Cruncher 73% 6.0 27.0 57% 2.6 37.5 56% -0.1 30.3 74% 5.2 21.2 87% 9.8 27.7 78% 7.4 21.2 67% 3.1 26.4 59% 3.7 24.4 57% -0.5 27.1 74% 5.5 27.2 54% -0.4 24.9 83% 8.5 23.2 83% 5.1 23.5 91% 14.2 22.4 81% 6.8 22.2 83% 10.5 32.9 83% 10.1 24.3 58% 2.2 25.3
In The Game 70% 6.3 26.1 61% 3.2 37.1 52% -1.0 30.6 83% 5.3 21.7 87% 10.1 27.9 62% 6.5 22.9 62% 3.3 24.4 61% 3.8 23.6 61% -3.6 31.2 67% 5.5 26.4 50% 0.2 26.3 78% 9.9 24.1 70% 3.0 25.0 87% 15.0 20.4 70% 7.1 24.0 91% 13.6 30.8 78% 6.9 29.4 58% 2.5 25.0
Elo Predicts! 65% 5.5 25.2 61% 3.5 38.3 68% 2.1 27.3 67% 5.5 23.0 78% 9.1 26.8 67% 5.8 22.8 62% 4.0 23.0 61% 3.9 26.1 61% -0.9 31.3 75% 4.5 25.3 58% 1.4 23.6 74% 6.5 28.5 74% 2.8 26.9 91% 13.5 22.5 83% 6.9 20.0 83% 8.4 33.5 78% 9.7 27.1 42% 0.2 27.2
Graft 65% 4.8 28.4 52% 3.4 37.6 68% 3.6 30.9 75% 5.1 22.2 87% 8.6 28.2 71% 6.4 19.5 62% 3.9 23.0 57% 3.2 24.7 57% 0.7 29.3 71% 4.2 29.3 58% 2.4 25.5 78% 7.3 21.8 74% 2.6 27.7 87% 12.4 20.8 87% 5.7 23.7 78% 8.2 32.8 74% 8.7 24.7 46% 1.1 26.5
Hyperion 71% 4.9 26.3 55% 3.3 36.1 65% 1.1 31.8 70% 4.6 20.3 86% 9.8 26.6 74% 7.4 21.0 74% 3.8 25.0 64% 4.5 22.9 61% -2.2 31.3 78% 5.0 27.9 52% 0.5 25.3 82% 6.1 25.5 73% 3.0 26.4 91% 13.5 20.2 78% 5.7 22.7 82% 8.0 30.0 82% 8.1 21.3 65% -1.0 29.0
Live Ladders 65% 4.7 25.6 48% 3.7 36.4 56% 3.7 25.8 71% 4.5 19.3 87% 9.4 28.8 67% 5.4 25.0 67% 4.8 22.7 57% 2.6 26.4 65% 1.1 28.8 67% 4.4 28.9 58% 1.3 24.7 87% 7.3 20.9 74% 3.4 25.7 87% 11.7 25.5 74% 5.5 23.3 83% 8.2 33.2 83% 8.5 23.7 46% 0.8 24.0
AFL Scorigami 70% 5.4 25.2 57% 0.9 38.2 68% 2.4 27.5 75% 3.7 21.5 78% 8.5 29.3 67% 6.0 24.4 62% 2.0 26.3 57% 4.7 23.7 52% -3.9 30.8 71% 3.9 30.1 58% 0.3 26.0 83% 7.5 23.2 78% 4.1 25.7 87% 12.7 24.7 70% 4.6 24.8 74% 7.4 35.2 74% 8.3 25.3 50% 1.7 24.2
Squiggle 70% 4.3 24.3 57% 3.2 37.0 48% 2.2 28.8 71% 4.3 21.1 87% 7.8 29.0 71% 6.2 22.6 62% 3.9 23.3 65% 2.9 24.6 52% 0.4 27.9 71% 4.3 29.4 46% 0.8 25.6 83% 7.6 22.1 65% 2.5 25.7 87% 12.5 23.7 70% 5.0 22.6 87% 8.4 35.0 78% 8.2 24.7 46% 0.7 24.6
Massey Ratings 68% 5.5 27.4 57% 3.3 37.8 64% 1.3 31.2 82% 5.9 19.8 85% 8.9 26.1 71% 5.3 22.6 68% 4.1 24.4 70% 3.5 22.8 52% -1.8 30.9 73% 4.5 30.3 55% 0.6 24.8 85% 8.1 25.8 70% 5.0 24.9 85% 13.3 21.1 80% 6.3 24.1 90% 8.7 31.5 84% 10.2 22.0 59% -0.5 26.0