Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park
12.11
83
11.12
78
Geelong won by 5 points
IN
Narkle
Guthrie
Higgins
Henderson
OUT
IN
McLean
Martin
OUT
| Tip | Win % | Margin | ✓ | MAE | Bits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Aggregate
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✓ | 2.0 | 0.09 |
|
|
68% | 19 points | ✓ | 14.0 | 0.44 |
|
Punters
|
|
61% | 10 points | ✓ | 4.7 | 0.30 |
|
|
61% | 9 points | ✓ | 4.3 | 0.28 |
|
|
58% | 9 points | ✓ | 4.0 | 0.21 |
|
|
57% | 6 points | ✓ | 1.0 | 0.20 |
|
|
56% | 5 points | ✓ | 0.2 | 0.17 |
|
|
55% | 5 points | ✓ | 0.4 | 0.13 |
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✓ | 2.5 | 0.10 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✓ | 2.5 | 0.08 |
|
|
52% | 2 points | ✓ | 2.8 | 0.07 |
|
s10
|
|
52% | 1 point | ✓ | 3.5 | 0.05 |
|
|
50% | 0 points | ✓ | 5.0 | 0.01 |
|
|
52% | 2 points | ✗ | 7.0 | -0.06 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✗ | 7.0 | -0.07 |
|
|
53% | 4 points | ✗ | 9.0 | -0.09 |
|
|
55% | 4 points | ✗ | 8.9 | -0.14 |
|
|
62% | 10 points | ✗ | 15.0 | -0.39 |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.