LEADERBOARD

At end of 2024.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1

156 33.35 26.36 72.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1

143 33.50 26.52 66.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1

143 26.77 27.31 66.2%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

143 24.32 27.08 66.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1

142 26.14 27.23 65.7%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0

141 29.77 27.17 65.3%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1

141 27.38 27.27 65.3%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1

140 30.91 26.70 64.8%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1

140 29.73 26.76 64.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1

140 29.21 26.92 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1

140 27.51 26.79 64.8%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 30.19 26.64 64.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1

139 28.36 27.23†2 65.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 27.41 26.80 64.4%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1

139 27.00 27.34 64.4%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2

139 26.60 27.27†1 64.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1

139 21.53 28.11 64.4%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†13 68.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1

138 28.01 26.72 63.9%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0

138 27.46 27.20†1 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0

138 26.81 27.44†4 65.1%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0

138 25.74 26.85 63.9%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

137 28.92 27.27 63.4%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1

137 17.28 28.44†1 63.7%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0

136 28.86 26.82 63.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0

135 27.01 27.27 62.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.63 27.83 62.5%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.46 27.53 62.5%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0

133 28.20 26.76 61.6%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0

133 27.48 27.05†2 62.1%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can cause an undeserved boost to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Live Ladders 61% -0.3 25.7 70% 3.7 27.7 79% 3.3 21.7 70% 2.7 21.9 61% 1.5 18.7 78% 2.1 25.0 68% 2.1 28.3 78% 2.6 24.7 80% 4.0 16.5 76% 5.2 32.6 70% 3.1 30.0 87% 11.6 26.6 65% 4.0 29.0 83% 7.0 25.6 74% 4.2 20.3 73% 3.1 29.8 74% 5.7 31.7 54% 1.2 37.6
Wheelo Ratings 61% 1.4 24.8 63% 2.5 30.2 54% 1.2 23.2 70% 1.3 24.0 52% 0.8 20.7 65% 1.9 26.2 52% 3.0 27.9 74% 3.7 23.0 68% 3.1 18.6 68% 4.8 33.2 70% 1.9 30.4 83% 12.7 23.4 62% 5.0 28.7 83% 8.3 24.3 70% 4.4 21.2 77% 4.0 29.1 74% 5.3 30.4 50% 1.6 36.5
Informed Stats 57% 0.5 25.7 59% 3.4 32.0 54% 2.2 23.0 52% 1.2 23.7 74% 1.6 22.2 52% -2.2 29.3 64% 3.6 26.2 74% 1.6 24.2 68% 3.0 19.2 64% 2.7 34.4 65% 1.1 31.0 83% 11.8 25.7 65% 4.3 29.7 83% 7.8 23.5 74% 4.2 21.6 73% 4.4 27.4 74% 1.7 33.1 58% 0.6 38.4
The Wooden Finger 61% -1.9 25.9 59% 2.4 30.4 54% 2.5 22.2 61% 1.1 24.9 65% -0.2 22.4 61% -1.2 28.0 56% 1.5 28.9 70% 3.8 21.5 72% 3.8 16.9 60% 2.4 34.4 78% 3.4 28.0 87% 11.4 27.4 65% 2.6 30.3 87% 7.8 24.0 57% 1.8 22.6 69% 2.6 30.5 74% 4.6 29.7 58% 0.1 37.5
Don't Blame the Data 65% 0.2 27.4 63% 2.2 31.4 54% 1.6 22.8 52% 0.9 26.2 52% 1.1 19.6 61% 0.4 27.1 60% 1.8 27.4 70% 2.4 24.3 72% 1.8 20.0 76% 4.6 33.8 61% 0.9 31.0 87% 11.6 24.5 62% 2.7 30.9 78% 6.6 24.8 70% 3.0 20.5 69% 4.3 27.7 78% 6.0 30.4 54% 0.2 38.5
AFLalytics 65% 1.7 25.1 56% 1.8 31.0 58% 1.0 23.5 61% 1.5 24.2 57% 1.6 19.2 65% 1.3 26.7 52% 1.0 29.9 78% 4.5 23.1 72% 3.1 18.8 64% 3.4 35.9 74% 2.2 29.5 83% 12.1 27.0 58% 3.4 29.3 83% 6.8 26.3 61% 3.5 21.9 65% 3.7 29.2 74% 7.1 27.9 54% -0.0 38.7
Graft 57% -0.2 26.3 59% 1.7 33.4 62% 2.2 21.4 57% 1.8 24.8 70% 3.6 20.0 52% -0.5 29.5 56% 1.3 28.9 74% 3.4 21.4 72% 3.5 16.4 68% 3.7 33.9 61% 2.4 29.2 87% 10.8 26.0 58% 2.7 32.7 83% 5.7 24.6 61% 2.0 22.6 77% 3.7 28.8 74% 5.8 31.8 50% 1.3 37.4
s10 65% 0.9 24.9 59% 2.3 30.4 54% 1.6 23.0 65% 1.8 24.2 48% 1.5 19.8 65% 1.3 26.5 52% 1.6 28.9 74% 3.0 23.0 64% 3.4 17.5 68% 4.1 34.0 65% 2.5 29.6 83% 11.9 25.4 58% 3.6 29.8 83% 7.4 24.5 61% 3.5 21.2 77% 4.0 28.7 74% 6.1 29.9 54% 1.2 37.6
Squiggle 52% 1.1 24.5 67% 2.6 30.0 58% 0.9 23.4 65% 1.5 25.9 61% 1.3 18.9 57% 0.4 26.6 60% 2.1 28.0 65% 1.9 25.2 64% 2.4 18.3 64% 3.4 35.1 65% 3.7 27.3 87% 11.4 27.4 58% 3.0 29.0 83% 6.7 25.3 61% 3.4 20.6 62% 3.6 30.8 78% 7.1 28.6 62% 3.0 35.2
Drop Kick Data 57% 0.2 25.6 63% 2.7 29.6 58% 2.3 22.1 57% 1.5 23.8 43% 0.4 21.0 65% 0.9 26.8 52% 1.2 29.2 70% 2.5 23.9 64% 3.4 17.7 68% 4.4 34.1 70% 2.5 30.0 87% 11.5 25.0 62% 3.7 30.5 87% 8.5 23.1 74% 3.8 21.1 73% 4.4 27.9 74% 5.0 32.9 46% -0.3 38.8
Massey Ratings 65% 1.0 23.5 59% 2.7 29.4 58% 1.7 23.6 52% 1.4 23.8 70% 2.4 16.8 52% -0.4 27.0 60% 3.9 26.1 78% 2.8 24.2 64% 3.6 17.8 60% 1.9 36.7 70% 2.7 28.5 87% 11.9 25.7 54% 2.7 29.4 83% 5.4 28.8 61% 3.4 20.6 73% 3.9 28.8 74% 5.2 30.7 50% -1.2 39.5
Aggregate 57% 0.6 25.0 67% 2.7 29.7 54% 1.8 22.9 61% 1.6 24.0 52% 1.6 19.3 57% 0.9 26.5 60% 2.2 28.1 74% 3.0 23.2 68% 3.4 17.3 52% 3.6 34.7 70% 2.6 29.6 83% 11.7 25.9 58% 3.5 29.4 83% 7.2 24.9 61% 3.3 21.0 77% 4.0 28.7 74% 6.0 29.8 54% 0.7 38.2
What Snoo Thinks 61% -0.2 25.5 65% 2.2 31.5 58% 1.2 23.1 52% -0.1 25.2 57% 1.0 20.5 74% 1.1 25.6 52% 1.9 29.0 65% 1.6 25.1 71% 3.2 18.6 67% 3.2 35.3 70% 4.2 28.5 83% 11.9 26.2 64% 3.7 30.2 83% 8.0 24.1 57% 3.1 21.8 73% 4.6 28.9 74% 5.5 31.5 46% 0.4 38.3
Elo Predicts! 61% 1.2 23.7 63% 2.8 27.8 58% 1.5 22.8 57% 1.1 24.2 61% 2.5 18.7 57% -0.1 27.7 60% 2.9 26.8 74% 2.9 23.7 64% 3.3 18.6 56% 2.6 35.7 70% 2.4 28.9 83% 11.4 25.5 62% 3.1 29.0 83% 5.8 28.3 61% 2.2 22.0 69% 3.3 28.4 74% 5.9 31.1 50% 0.1 38.2
Matter of Stats 57% 0.5 26.2 59% 1.5 31.8 54% 0.7 24.2 61% 1.2 24.5 48% 0.8 20.6 65% 1.5 26.9 52% -0.0 30.1 78% 3.3 22.9 68% 3.3 18.4 60% 3.4 34.4 65% 2.7 30.0 87% 11.5 26.4 65% 4.1 29.2 83% 6.4 25.5 61% 3.1 22.1 73% 3.7 28.7 78% 5.8 30.5 46% 0.5 38.2
Cheap Stats 61% -0.0 25.4 65% 2.6 29.1 67% 1.8 23.2 57% 0.8 26.0 52% 1.5 22.2 61% 0.5 26.2 56% 2.3 28.8 65% 2.1 22.0 64% 1.7 19.1 60% 2.6 35.1 61% 2.2 30.7 87% 12.4 25.0 65% 3.0 31.5 78% 7.7 25.9 70% 2.3 22.6 68% 3.2 27.7 78% 6.2 29.7 50% 0.5 39.5
AFL Scorigami 70% -0.7 25.3 59% 0.9 30.2 58% 1.2 23.0 61% 1.4 22.3 57% 0.9 19.7 70% 1.0 26.4 44% -0.5 30.5 74% 3.4 25.2 64% 3.1 18.4 64% 2.2 36.3 65% 3.4 28.9 87% 9.8 31.1 58% 1.4 31.5 83% 7.1 28.7 57% 1.2 23.3 65% 3.4 29.7 70% 5.0 34.0 58% -1.1 39.8
Data by Josh 57% -0.3 24.8 61% 3.1 29.1 55% 0.5 25.4 74% 3.6 21.9 52% -1.6 22.8 68% 2.4 23.5 57% 0.5 27.8 73% 2.8 22.1 70% 4.2 19.0 83% 5.7 34.1 70% 2.2 30.7 83% 11.0 26.0 64% 4.3 29.9 83% 10.3 23.0 74% 4.5 23.2 67% 3.7 25.9 74% 4.8 32.4 61% 2.5 35.2
AFL Lab 52% 0.6 25.3 59% 2.0 31.2 62% 2.8 22.0 61% 1.3 24.2 65% 0.7 18.1 70% 1.7 25.7 56% 1.5 28.0 65% 1.9 25.2 52% 1.3 17.8 60% 4.0 33.5 70% 1.1 31.5 87% 12.4 23.8 65% 3.8 30.7 83% 6.7 25.5 61% 4.5 21.1 58% 2.7 31.3 74% 5.7 27.6 54% 1.5 36.4
FMI 65% 0.4 24.5 52% 2.2 30.1 61% 2.1 23.1 52% 1.4 26.4 70% 2.2 19.4 57% -0.2 28.2 64% 3.0 25.9 74% 3.8 20.9 68% 3.1 18.9 56% 2.5 37.1 64% 1.7 30.9 83% 11.1 26.1 54% 2.8 30.7 83% 5.3 25.7 65% 3.0 22.1 62% 2.9 30.5 74% 6.2 30.0 58% 1.3 37.5
Hyperion 70% 1.7 24.5 60% 1.6 30.9 54% 0.3 24.3 52% 0.4 26.0 65% 2.6 18.9 70% 1.6 25.8 58% 3.4 26.6 57% 1.7 23.5 67% 2.7 20.8 62% 4.3 36.5 65% 2.6 29.0 83% 12.1 26.1 67% 2.3 31.5 78% 6.0 28.0 61% 2.0 22.8 76% 3.1 27.2 74% 6.4 30.0 54% -1.2 40.5
The Footycast 52% 0.8 24.1 56% 1.0 30.5 54% 1.5 23.1 57% 1.5 23.9 65% 3.0 18.1 57% -0.1 27.4 52% 2.0 28.1 65% 1.5 25.4 72% 3.9 17.2 68% 3.0 34.9 70% 3.0 27.8 91% 11.1 25.1 50% 1.6 30.3 87% 7.1 25.1 57% 2.3 21.2 69% 3.7 28.6 78% 5.3 30.9 54% -0.6 40.0
Winnable 57% 0.2 24.8 67% 3.3 31.6 54% 1.4 23.4 57% 0.9 25.0 52% 1.4 20.3 61% 0.9 27.0 56% 2.3 28.1 74% 2.6 24.0 64% 3.3 18.1 56% 2.0 36.4 65% 2.4 30.1 87% 12.1 26.4 58% 3.2 29.3 78% 6.4 26.3 61% 4.3 20.1 73% 4.6 28.6 78% 6.1 30.9 46% 0.5 38.7
PlusSixOne 65% 0.9 24.4 62% 1.2 27.9 50% 0.7 24.1 52% 1.1 21.8 74% 1.7 18.2 57% 0.4 27.6 52% 1.4 30.1 70% 2.1 26.3 72% 1.5 20.1 64% 1.6 38.3 61% 1.1 30.3 83% 6.4 33.8 62% 1.6 31.2 70% 2.9 33.1 57% 2.0 21.5 76% 2.6 29.8 74% 4.8 33.5 50% 0.7 38.9
Punters 65% -0.0 25.0 52% 1.4 31.5 54% 0.9 23.2 61% 1.4 24.0 52% 1.1 21.6 61% 0.8 26.5 52% 0.9 29.2 70% 3.8 21.8 60% 3.0 18.1 68% 4.2 33.9 57% 1.8 29.9 83% 12.4 24.0 62% 4.1 28.9 83% 8.3 24.4 57% 3.7 22.5 77% 3.9 28.7 70% 5.8 29.4 54% 0.1 38.4
Glicko Ratings 61% 0.5 25.6 56% 1.2 30.7 54% -0.2 24.8 57% 1.4 23.8 48% 0.1 20.9 57% 1.6 26.4 44% 1.4 29.0 74% 3.2 23.4 60% 3.6 18.4 76% 4.6 33.6 61% 1.2 30.8 87% 12.3 26.2 58% 3.8 28.8 78% 6.4 26.2 65% 2.9 22.5 69% 4.0 28.8 78% 6.2 30.7 46% -0.4 39.1
footycharts 61% -0.8 27.5 63% 2.0 32.4 50% 1.8 23.5 61% 1.6 24.8 52% 1.2 21.5 70% 0.9 26.5 52% -0.3 30.6 61% 2.9 24.2 64% 1.0 20.1 56% 2.1 35.5 70% 3.4 29.8 83% 11.4 26.9 54% 1.9 31.8 83% 6.2 26.4 57% 3.1 21.2 77% 3.8 28.8 74% 6.2 29.8 42% 1.0 37.6
Stattraction 52% -1.9 25.8 63% 2.0 29.6 54% 2.8 22.3 52% -0.0 24.0 61% 1.1 20.2 61% -0.7 26.8 64% 3.5 27.7 61% 1.4 26.3 52% 1.9 21.0 52% 1.8 35.0 74% 2.8 31.0 83% 12.5 26.9 58% 3.3 29.9 83% 7.8 24.3 65% 3.1 21.5 65% 2.1 32.2 74% 5.4 31.1 54% -0.1 38.2
ZaphBot 57% -1.7 27.1 67% 4.4 27.3 46% 2.4 22.1 61% 3.1 23.6 52% -0.4 21.1 48% 0.3 27.0 64% 3.4 26.8 65% 3.8 21.5 64% 4.3 17.9 52% 1.8 37.4 70% 2.2 30.0 83% 10.2 29.2 62% 4.9 26.1 87% 6.5 24.8 61% 2.4 21.2 62% 4.1 29.5 70% 5.4 29.0 42% -0.4 39.2
The Cruncher 52% 0.4 24.4 54% 2.1 30.5 50% 1.0 23.4 61% 0.4 24.0 52% 1.0 20.3 57% 0.2 27.8 56% 2.4 27.9 74% 2.8 23.5 64% 3.9 18.5 52% 3.8 34.9 57% -0.3 30.8 83% 11.9 26.9 65% 4.1 28.4 83% 8.2 24.9 65% 3.6 22.3 73% 4.3 28.6 74% 6.3 29.6 48% -1.0 39.8