LEADERBOARD

After 2 games of Round 15, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 2

95 29.9967 30.00 25.7828 25.78 77.2358 77.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 2

94 29.5515 29.55 25.2515 25.25 76.4228 76.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 2

94 20.1226 20.12 25.9565 25.96 76.4228 76.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

91 29.7580 29.76 26.0780 26.08 73.9837 74.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 2

90 31.0039 31.00 25.7583 25.76 73.1707 73.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

90 29.2048 29.20 26.7317 26.73 73.1707 73.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 2

90 28.8816 28.88 26.2347 26.23 73.1707 73.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

90 28.1922 28.19 25.9961 26.00 73.1707 73.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 2

90 25.5077 25.51 26.8124 26.81 73.1707 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 2

89 30.0990 30.10 26.4201 26.42 72.3577 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 2

89 28.0607 28.06 27.8618 27.86 72.3577 72.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 2

89 26.7666 26.77 26.2013 26.20 72.3577 72.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

88 27.5293 27.53 26.6924 26.69 71.5447 71.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 2

87 28.4520 28.45 27.0827 27.08 70.7317 70.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 2

87 24.7725 24.77 28.0360 28.04 †1 71.3115 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †2 71.9008 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 2

86 28.3858 28.39 25.7241 25.72 69.9187 69.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 2

86 27.8712 27.87 26.1852 26.19 69.9187 69.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 2

86 26.6067 26.61 26.4134 26.41 69.9187 69.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 2

86 24.6938 24.69 26.3341 26.33 69.9187 69.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 2

85 27.2513 27.25 27.1057 27.11 69.1057 69.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 1

84 28.5448 28.54 27.6210 27.62 68.2927 68.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 1

84 26.3687 26.37 26.4228 26.42 68.2927 68.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 2

84 24.3387 24.34 26.3423 26.34 68.2927 68.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 1

84 22.8702 22.87 27.3751 27.38 68.2927 68.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 2

84 22.0594 22.06 26.7130 26.71 68.2927 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 2

83 23.9694 23.97 26.6280 26.63 67.4797 67.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 1

82 24.9769 24.98 27.9350 27.93 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 2

80 20.8346 20.83 27.3902 27.39 65.0407 65.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 1

79 21.7854 21.79 27.2456 27.25 †9 69.2982 69.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

69 23.0999 23.10 27.6327 27.63 †25 70.4082 70.4%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Drop Kick Data 77% 1.9 21.2 64% 1.2 32.1 69% 2.8 22.9 85% 3.9 22.3 86% 6.8 27.4 86% 5.2 21.8 73% 2.4 26.9 79% 3.6 25.3 77% 1.6 28.8 71% 3.1 23.6 57% -0.3 26.8 77% 3.5 29.4 77% 1.4 24.0 85% 6.3 25.6 86% 4.4 18.0 100% 7.6 33.5 71% 3.0 26.0 71% 1.5 27.9
Wheelo Ratings 77% 2.4 16.5 57% 1.4 31.6 69% 2.3 23.8 85% 3.7 21.2 86% 6.5 27.8 93% 6.0 20.2 73% 1.5 27.7 79% 3.6 25.1 69% 2.7 27.5 79% 2.0 22.9 57% -0.5 27.3 77% 4.3 28.4 69% 0.5 24.0 85% 6.3 26.0 86% 4.5 17.8 100% 7.2 32.2 71% 3.7 27.3 64% 1.1 26.1
Holy Grail Ratings 69% 1.6 18.4 64% 1.4 31.9 69% 1.6 21.6 92% 2.8 22.3 93% 4.1 29.6 71% 2.7 24.6 67% 1.7 24.5 93% 3.2 22.2 69% 1.1 31.2 71% 1.6 22.9 71% 1.1 25.0 77% 2.3 28.8 62% 0.5 25.9 85% 3.8 28.4 93% 2.9 21.1 100% 5.1 33.6 71% 2.6 27.1 57% 0.1 27.7
s10 69% 3.4 18.0 57% 1.7 32.6 62% 2.1 23.9 85% 3.7 21.1 86% 6.1 28.6 86% 5.4 20.8 67% 1.7 27.5 71% 3.4 25.2 62% 1.7 30.0 79% 2.3 23.9 50% 0.0 27.1 77% 4.3 28.6 77% 1.0 25.1 85% 6.8 25.7 93% 4.7 19.7 93% 7.0 34.5 71% 3.5 28.0 64% 0.6 28.2
Punters 69% 3.1 17.9 57% 1.2 33.5 69% 3.0 23.7 77% 3.7 23.3 86% 6.5 30.9 93% 6.8 19.2 73% 2.1 26.1 79% 3.8 24.5 69% 1.9 29.8 79% 2.2 24.0 50% -0.3 28.0 69% 3.7 29.2 62% 0.3 24.6 85% 7.1 23.2 79% 4.2 18.9 100% 8.1 30.2 71% 3.3 28.1 50% 1.3 27.9
ZaphBot 69% 4.1 16.5 64% 2.5 31.4 69% 2.0 27.0 85% 4.5 24.7 79% 5.7 28.2 86% 7.0 18.1 60% 0.7 28.7 71% 3.0 25.4 62% 0.3 33.9 79% 1.6 23.4 57% 0.2 27.5 69% 3.8 30.3 69% -0.3 27.4 85% 7.9 24.5 93% 5.7 20.6 100% 7.8 32.6 64% 2.6 29.9 57% -0.8 30.7
AFLalytics 69% 2.9 19.2 57% 1.6 32.2 62% 2.2 23.0 85% 3.1 22.4 86% 5.7 29.5 79% 4.5 23.6 73% 2.7 27.1 79% 3.3 25.3 77% 2.6 28.0 86% 2.5 25.1 50% 1.1 26.2 77% 4.6 25.9 62% 0.8 24.9 85% 6.0 27.1 79% 3.9 21.0 93% 6.5 35.5 71% 3.7 27.1 50% 0.2 27.9
Aggregate 69% 3.2 17.7 50% 1.9 32.4 69% 2.2 23.6 85% 3.5 21.3 86% 5.7 28.7 79% 5.1 20.5 67% 1.7 26.4 71% 3.5 24.8 62% 1.3 31.3 79% 2.2 23.2 57% 0.4 26.7 77% 3.9 28.4 77% 0.9 25.7 85% 6.5 25.1 93% 4.5 20.3 86% 6.4 34.8 71% 3.4 28.0 57% 0.2 28.3
Glicko Ratings 77% 2.8 19.3 57% 1.1 33.4 62% 2.5 23.9 77% 3.3 22.0 86% 4.9 29.4 86% 4.8 21.3 73% 1.2 28.8 79% 2.8 26.1 62% 1.7 29.2 71% 1.6 26.3 50% -0.3 26.9 77% 3.8 30.5 77% 1.0 26.3 85% 6.0 27.1 79% 4.3 19.3 93% 6.5 35.0 71% 3.0 28.4 57% -0.1 28.7
Don't Blame the Data 69% 3.8 18.5 50% 1.9 32.9 69% 2.2 24.0 85% 3.5 21.4 86% 6.7 28.1 71% 5.0 22.2 67% 1.5 26.3 71% 4.1 24.1 62% 1.7 30.3 71% 1.8 24.5 57% -0.5 27.2 77% 4.6 30.1 77% 0.8 26.2 85% 7.7 25.5 93% 5.7 19.5 86% 6.1 35.0 71% 3.6 29.4 57% -0.0 29.9
The Wooden Finger 77% 3.4 19.6 57% 1.7 34.4 69% 2.7 26.5 92% 4.7 22.2 86% 6.0 29.1 79% 4.5 21.4 60% 0.3 28.7 71% 4.4 23.6 62% 0.0 33.9 71% 1.8 25.3 57% 0.2 27.1 77% 4.5 30.5 77% 0.9 31.8 85% 7.1 23.1 93% 5.3 19.6 79% 5.8 40.4 71% 3.6 31.1 43% -0.8 32.6
What Snoo Thinks 77% 2.3 18.5 64% 1.5 32.7 77% 3.4 18.8 69% 2.9 22.9 86% 5.3 29.8 71% 4.0 24.1 60% 1.1 27.1 64% 3.3 25.4 62% 1.7 30.7 64% 0.8 25.8 57% -0.2 26.4 77% 4.2 26.8 69% 1.1 25.7 77% 5.5 28.4 93% 4.7 19.7 93% 6.8 34.2 71% 4.4 26.8 71% 0.7 26.9
AFL Lab 62% 3.1 21.0 50% 1.8 34.0 62% 1.5 26.7 77% 3.1 20.5 86% 5.8 27.4 71% 2.9 25.3 67% 3.1 24.9 79% 4.5 21.9 62% 1.1 29.7 79% 2.9 22.7 64% 1.8 25.7 77% 3.8 28.9 77% 0.9 25.8 85% 6.1 27.3 86% 4.8 19.7 86% 5.2 37.5 71% 3.4 28.6 50% -0.9 32.4
Matter of Stats 69% 3.6 19.6 57% 1.9 32.9 69% 2.1 22.5 85% 3.8 21.9 79% 5.2 32.9 79% 4.6 20.8 67% 1.4 28.1 79% 3.8 23.9 62% 0.3 33.2 71% 2.8 24.5 50% -0.5 27.8 69% 3.6 33.2 54% 0.7 26.9 85% 7.0 21.6 86% 5.1 20.9 100% 7.0 35.9 64% 3.7 30.2 50% 0.9 29.8
The Cruncher 75% 4.2 21.5 57% 0.7 35.0 62% 1.5 25.2 77% 2.9 23.6 86% 5.7 29.9 86% 5.0 22.0 64% 0.5 31.7 64% 2.0 28.6 62% 1.0 30.1 71% 1.3 25.8 50% -1.7 28.5 77% 4.0 28.8 77% 1.6 27.7 85% 6.5 27.3 79% 4.1 22.2 86% 6.7 36.5 71% 3.0 29.5 57% 0.8 29.4
Cheap Stats 62% 2.0 21.1 57% 1.8 31.1 69% 2.4 21.1 85% 1.9 24.2 79% 4.1 32.3 85% 4.8 22.4 71% 1.6 29.2 69% 2.8 27.1 54% 0.6 33.2 77% 1.1 26.2 50% 0.6 25.2 77% 2.1 30.4 69% 1.7 25.2 77% 4.8 26.1 79% 3.0 21.1 93% 5.7 32.8 79% 3.0 28.4 64% 0.2 27.4
Winnable 62% 3.2 17.7 57% 0.5 32.2 46% 0.7 24.1 77% 3.5 21.5 86% 6.1 28.9 86% 5.1 21.6 67% 2.5 25.5 71% 3.3 26.5 62% 2.8 27.9 79% 2.5 22.4 50% -0.3 27.6 77% 5.1 23.7 62% 1.4 22.7 85% 5.8 29.8 64% 3.8 21.3 100% 6.6 35.3 71% 3.8 26.4 57% 0.4 27.0
footycharts 69% 2.9 17.9 50% 1.9 32.6 69% 2.7 23.4 77% 3.4 22.6 86% 5.5 29.7 79% 5.7 20.4 80% 2.9 25.4 79% 4.1 24.4 62% 2.1 29.2 71% 2.1 24.8 50% 0.8 26.5 77% 4.5 24.2 62% -0.5 26.2 85% 5.5 27.9 86% 4.3 20.9 86% 6.3 35.2 71% 2.8 29.0 21% -1.3 30.4
Stattraction 69% 3.3 17.6 57% 2.0 33.4 69% 1.8 25.6 92% 4.4 19.7 86% 5.3 29.3 79% 4.7 19.6 60% 0.6 26.2 71% 3.5 25.7 62% 0.8 31.9 64% 1.4 24.2 64% 0.6 25.6 62% 3.2 28.8 62% 1.4 26.6 85% 6.8 24.2 86% 5.2 20.3 79% 5.3 37.5 64% 3.3 27.9 50% -0.4 30.4
PlusSixOne 69% 2.5 17.6 71% 1.6 32.3 62% 1.6 24.5 77% 3.4 23.2 86% 5.8 24.5 93% 6.3 17.7 67% 1.6 26.8 64% 3.3 24.8 54% 0.1 33.2 71% 2.1 21.9 57% 1.1 25.5 69% 3.4 25.4 54% 0.4 26.7 85% 5.8 26.3 79% 4.1 23.0 86% 6.1 36.3 64% 2.1 31.0 50% -1.9 32.8
Informed Stats 69% 3.5 19.0 57% 1.8 35.6 62% 3.1 25.2 69% 2.7 23.2 86% 6.0 27.3 86% 6.2 16.1 67% 0.0 28.5 64% 2.9 26.9 62% 0.8 34.2 71% 2.8 24.2 50% -1.7 28.9 77% 3.7 29.5 69% 0.3 26.6 85% 8.1 24.2 79% 4.6 23.7 79% 5.7 37.9 71% 3.6 27.9 43% 0.4 28.4
In The Game 69% 3.5 21.7 57% 1.3 34.0 54% 1.9 23.0 85% 4.1 22.9 86% 6.5 29.7 71% 4.9 21.1 53% 0.5 29.7 71% 3.7 24.6 69% 0.9 32.5 64% 2.2 22.1 43% -1.2 29.8 69% 4.7 33.4 54% -0.9 28.2 85% 7.9 23.3 71% 4.9 23.9 100% 10.0 32.2 71% 1.1 35.3 57% 1.1 29.1
Live Ladders 62% 2.6 19.9 43% 2.0 31.1 62% 2.4 20.0 77% 3.0 20.8 86% 5.4 29.8 71% 3.9 24.4 67% 2.9 24.4 64% 3.0 27.1 69% 2.2 30.9 64% 2.1 24.3 64% 1.3 25.3 85% 3.9 27.5 62% 0.5 25.5 85% 5.3 30.2 71% 3.6 22.4 86% 5.7 34.7 79% 3.7 27.9 36% -0.6 28.6
HBin 77% 3.5 19.1 64% 2.8 30.9 62% 1.7 25.5 77% 3.4 19.8 86% 4.8 31.6 79% 4.3 22.1 60% 0.6 26.6 64% 3.5 25.7 62% 0.3 32.7 71% 2.4 22.3 43% -1.5 27.5 62% 3.1 28.6 62% -0.5 26.6 85% 7.5 24.9 86% 4.8 20.4 86% 5.9 33.5 64% 1.6 29.4 43% 0.4 26.4
AFL Scorigami 69% 3.2 20.2 50% 0.1 32.9 85% 2.3 20.6 77% 1.8 23.8 71% 4.7 30.8 71% 4.6 24.1 53% 0.4 30.4 57% 3.2 25.7 62% -1.1 32.5 71% 2.5 23.4 57% 0.2 27.4 77% 3.9 29.5 69% 1.4 24.7 85% 6.3 27.1 79% 3.7 22.5 86% 5.3 36.5 64% 2.7 30.8 50% 0.7 28.7
The Footycast 62% 2.5 18.6 57% 1.7 31.7 69% 2.1 24.4 69% 3.1 23.5 86% 4.6 27.7 86% 4.4 21.2 60% 1.2 28.3 64% 2.5 26.0 54% 0.1 32.8 71% 1.4 24.5 57% 1.1 25.4 77% 2.8 27.3 62% 0.0 25.3 85% 5.8 26.2 86% 3.6 22.2 79% 4.9 36.7 71% 2.7 28.1 36% -0.5 30.3
Squiggle 69% 2.1 17.6 57% 2.5 31.3 46% 0.7 25.4 77% 3.1 22.4 86% 4.1 30.1 79% 4.5 22.7 53% 1.6 27.2 71% 2.6 26.4 62% 2.2 26.6 71% 1.5 25.5 43% -0.3 29.3 77% 4.0 27.8 62% 0.4 24.1 85% 5.9 27.5 71% 3.9 19.7 93% 6.3 35.5 71% 3.8 29.0 43% -0.8 30.0
Graft 62% 2.6 23.2 50% 2.1 33.2 69% 2.3 29.5 77% 3.5 24.0 86% 4.8 32.0 79% 4.4 18.4 53% 1.3 27.4 57% 2.9 26.5 69% 1.6 30.7 64% 1.5 25.4 57% 1.1 27.9 69% 3.4 26.9 69% 0.2 30.2 85% 6.0 22.3 86% 3.8 24.6 79% 5.3 36.7 64% 3.4 30.9 29% -0.4 32.2
Elo Predicts! 62% 3.0 19.0 57% 1.4 32.6 62% 0.9 25.2 69% 2.8 23.3 71% 5.2 26.9 71% 4.1 19.2 53% 0.5 27.4 71% 3.0 28.3 69% 0.1 35.8 71% 1.4 21.9 57% 0.2 27.1 62% 2.7 34.1 62% -0.1 27.4 85% 6.5 26.5 79% 3.7 20.6 79% 4.9 35.4 64% 2.8 31.1 29% -1.3 31.1
Hyperion 73% 2.8 20.2 54% 1.0 31.6 64% 0.8 30.4 75% 2.5 20.8 85% 5.7 26.8 85% 6.6 18.8 71% 1.2 29.3 69% 3.7 24.2 62% -0.7 36.4 77% 2.7 22.7 46% 0.3 26.8 75% 3.4 32.2 58% -0.0 29.8 83% 6.8 23.0 71% 3.1 23.4 85% 4.9 31.8 69% 1.5 25.1 46% -2.6 36.6
Massey Ratings 67% 2.6 22.8 42% 1.2 33.9 70% 1.5 28.2 82% 2.8 19.5 82% 4.5 28.0 82% 4.1 21.4 62% 0.9 30.4 73% 2.3 25.8 64% 0.6 34.0 67% 1.4 26.0 50% 0.6 27.2 80% 4.3 34.4 60% 1.2 24.8 80% 5.9 23.5 91% 4.5 23.7 92% 5.4 32.4 80% 3.5 26.6 50% -1.0 32.0