LEADERBOARD

After Round 8, 2026.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8

60 19.6836 19.68 25.0082 25.01 83.3333 83.3%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8

59 19.9857 19.99 26.2119 26.21 81.9444 81.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7

58 13.3867 13.39 25.9764 25.98 80.5556 80.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8

57 18.4074 18.41 26.6343 26.63 79.1667 79.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8

56 20.7978 20.80 26.4372 26.44 77.7778 77.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8

56 20.0948 20.09 26.3301 26.33 77.7778 77.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8

56 20.0820 20.08 25.8004 25.80 77.7778 77.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7

55 20.4254 20.43 27.1211 27.12 76.3889 76.4%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7

55 19.4135 19.41 26.5858 26.59 76.3889 76.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7

55 19.2017 19.20 27.5694 27.57 76.3889 76.4%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7

55 18.3179 18.32 26.5149 26.51 76.3889 76.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8

55 18.0282 18.03 26.9603 26.96 76.3889 76.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7

55 17.1390 17.14 26.5039 26.50 76.3889 76.4%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8

55 13.4508 13.45 27.7083 27.71 76.3889 76.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7

54 18.6505 18.65 26.5751 26.58 75.0000 75.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8

53 18.3705 18.37 27.9015 27.90 73.6111 73.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7

53 17.6414 17.64 27.8472 27.85 73.6111 73.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6

53 16.6928 16.69 27.8199 27.82 73.6111 73.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7

53 15.5426 15.54 27.2194 27.22 73.6111 73.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7

52 17.6456 17.65 27.5053 27.51 72.2222 72.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6

52 16.9286 16.93 27.5417 27.54 72.2222 72.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8

52 16.7996 16.80 27.9583 27.96 72.2222 72.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7

51 17.7091 17.71 26.9310 26.93 70.8333 70.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7

50 17.2117 17.21 27.1962 27.20 69.4444 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7

50 16.0047 16.00 29.6250 29.62 69.4444 69.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6

50 15.0040 15.00 27.5636 27.56 69.4444 69.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7

50 14.2760 14.28 27.5736 27.57 69.4444 69.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7

50 13.9769 13.98 27.9014 27.90 69.4444 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7

46 13.4927 13.49 27.6667 27.67 63.8889 63.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7

44 11.1576 11.16 28.7619 28.76 †9 69.8413 69.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7

34 13.1362 13.14 29.4787 29.48 †25 72.3404 72.3%

"Tips" is the number of correct tips. Draws are counted as correct.

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, which is the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

"Correct" is the percentage of correct tips, i.e. "Tips" divided by the total number of tips provided (which is normally also the number of games played, assuming the model tips all games).

"†number" indicates missing tips: This source did not provide a tip for the specified number of games, which can distort all three metrics. Although missing a game is usually bad for the tipster, it can avoid a penalty to Bits and MAE when the missed game is an upset.

[+] Bits, MAE, Tips... which is best?

Tips is what most people care about: How many winners did you pick? So it's the primary variable for the Squiggle leaderboard. But there's a fair bit of luck involved in tipping 50/50 games, so it's hard to know whether a high Tips score is due to skill or good fortune.

Bits are earned by confident correct tips, lost by confident incorrect tips, and not much happens either way for fence-sitting 50/50 tips. The added dimension of "confidence" means Bits are less influenced by luck, so high scores are likely to indicate models that are good performers over the long-term.

MAE (or Mean Absolute Error) measures how far, on average, margin tips are from the actual margin. (Lower MAE scores are better.) It's hard to fluke a good MAE, because your tips have to be consistently close to the real margins, and therefore it's probably the best of the three metrics at measuring a model's underlying forecasting skill. However, it doesn't measure whether anyone is getting the winners right, which means it's not directly tracking the most important factor.

By Round

By Team

Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions Carlton Carlton Carlton Collingwood Collingwood Collingwood Essendon Essendon Essendon Fremantle Fremantle Fremantle Geelong Geelong Geelong Gold Coast Gold Coast Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawthorn Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Richmond Richmond Richmond St Kilda St Kilda St Kilda Sydney Sydney Sydney West Coast West Coast West Coast Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Wheelo Ratings 88% 1.9 9.5 75% 1.4 22.9 88% 2.9 20.2 88% 1.7 19.1 88% 4.0 31.4 100% 4.3 11.3 88% 1.7 29.4 88% 2.7 31.0 88% 2.9 19.4 88% 2.2 23.8 50% -1.6 32.5 75% 2.8 21.1 75% -0.1 29.3 88% 3.5 27.2 88% 1.4 19.3 100% 3.6 38.7 62% 2.0 31.8 88% 2.0 32.3
Drop Kick Data 88% 2.2 13.4 75% 1.5 25.0 88% 2.9 19.7 88% 1.4 22.1 88% 3.6 33.1 100% 4.2 12.0 88% 2.2 31.3 88% 2.6 31.5 75% 2.2 21.6 88% 2.8 24.7 50% -1.6 31.4 75% 2.5 22.4 75% 0.5 30.7 88% 3.5 27.5 75% 1.4 18.6 100% 3.7 39.2 62% 1.9 32.5 88% 2.3 35.2
Holy Grail Ratings 75% 1.1 11.2 75% 1.3 23.8 88% 1.5 17.5 88% 1.4 22.5 88% 2.2 36.0 75% 2.1 17.3 75% 1.4 26.9 100% 2.5 25.9 88% 1.5 23.2 88% 1.7 21.6 75% 0.7 25.6 75% 1.6 21.1 62% 0.1 32.1 75% 1.6 34.2 88% 1.1 22.9 100% 2.3 38.8 62% 1.8 34.4 75% 0.9 32.6
Glicko Ratings 88% 2.2 12.5 75% 1.4 25.5 75% 2.4 22.3 88% 1.7 20.6 88% 3.4 31.8 100% 3.8 11.4 88% 1.6 32.0 88% 2.3 29.7 75% 2.5 21.4 88% 2.6 25.6 38% -1.0 31.2 75% 2.4 23.8 75% -0.3 34.5 88% 3.9 26.7 75% 1.7 19.4 88% 2.9 43.0 62% 2.3 32.3 75% 1.2 35.8
Matter of Stats 75% 2.7 14.1 75% 1.5 25.8 88% 2.6 17.5 88% 2.0 20.2 88% 3.5 37.8 88% 3.1 12.3 75% 1.4 31.7 88% 2.8 28.7 75% 2.4 23.5 88% 3.0 24.1 62% 0.2 27.2 62% 2.0 24.0 50% -0.1 33.6 88% 4.5 21.1 75% 2.1 21.1 100% 3.0 42.0 62% 2.6 33.3 75% 2.3 37.6
s10 75% 2.4 13.2 75% 1.6 25.6 75% 2.7 20.8 88% 1.9 19.3 88% 3.7 33.3 88% 3.7 12.8 75% 1.8 30.2 75% 2.6 30.4 75% 2.6 22.3 88% 2.6 24.2 50% -0.7 30.0 75% 2.7 21.5 75% 0.0 32.6 88% 4.0 27.6 88% 1.7 21.2 88% 3.1 41.3 62% 2.3 32.4 75% 1.6 35.5
Punters 75% 2.2 12.6 75% 1.4 24.7 88% 3.3 19.2 75% 1.4 22.6 88% 3.6 37.2 100% 4.6 11.7 88% 2.3 25.9 88% 2.8 29.5 75% 2.5 21.5 88% 2.1 26.1 50% -1.3 31.2 62% 2.2 23.2 62% -0.3 31.9 88% 4.2 23.8 62% 1.0 22.1 100% 4.4 33.6 62% 1.7 33.4 75% 2.1 34.3
Don't Blame the Data 75% 2.4 13.7 62% 1.5 26.9 88% 3.0 22.3 88% 2.2 20.9 88% 3.8 35.1 75% 3.5 15.1 75% 1.8 28.9 75% 2.8 29.5 75% 2.8 23.0 88% 3.0 22.7 62% -0.8 28.0 75% 2.8 22.8 75% -0.5 33.8 88% 4.5 27.9 88% 2.4 22.5 75% 2.2 44.7 62% 2.1 34.0 62% 1.2 36.5
AFLalytics 75% 1.7 14.3 75% 1.9 24.4 75% 2.4 20.7 88% 1.3 20.1 88% 3.6 33.9 75% 3.3 15.0 88% 2.6 28.9 88% 2.6 29.9 88% 2.6 21.6 100% 2.8 25.4 38% 0.1 28.8 75% 3.0 19.1 62% 0.3 32.3 88% 3.4 29.8 62% 1.0 23.8 88% 2.9 43.4 62% 2.3 32.3 62% 1.1 34.7
ZaphBot 75% 2.5 14.4 75% 1.3 26.5 88% 3.5 21.6 88% 2.8 24.8 88% 3.2 33.1 75% 3.7 15.2 62% 0.7 31.9 75% 2.2 31.4 75% 2.0 26.6 88% 2.0 24.6 62% -0.4 28.0 62% 2.2 26.0 62% -1.2 35.0 88% 4.8 26.0 88% 2.6 24.0 100% 3.8 36.1 62% 2.2 33.4 62% 0.6 37.6
Aggregate 75% 2.0 13.5 62% 1.5 26.3 88% 2.6 20.3 88% 1.8 19.8 88% 3.3 33.8 75% 3.2 14.0 75% 1.7 28.3 75% 2.6 29.8 75% 2.2 24.3 88% 2.4 23.1 62% -0.3 28.5 75% 2.4 22.1 75% -0.1 33.3 88% 3.7 27.7 88% 1.6 22.4 75% 2.7 41.4 62% 2.2 33.0 62% 1.1 35.6
AFL Scorigami 75% 2.3 13.2 62% 1.0 25.7 100% 2.2 19.9 88% 0.8 23.2 75% 3.0 37.9 88% 3.4 16.4 62% 1.9 32.0 62% 2.9 28.4 88% 1.8 24.1 88% 2.8 20.4 62% 0.5 28.1 75% 2.0 21.0 75% 0.7 27.8 88% 3.7 29.0 88% 1.9 21.4 75% 1.7 44.6 62% 1.8 36.2 62% 1.8 35.9
What Snoo Thinks 75% 0.8 14.6 88% 0.9 28.8 88% 3.1 15.0 88% 1.6 20.7 88% 2.8 34.0 75% 2.5 18.7 75% 1.6 28.5 62% 2.0 32.5 75% 2.2 24.7 75% 2.5 24.1 62% -0.2 25.9 75% 3.0 18.3 62% -0.3 33.4 75% 2.7 31.3 88% 1.6 20.8 88% 2.8 40.5 62% 3.0 32.2 75% 1.6 33.1
Cheap Stats 62% 1.1 18.0 75% 1.3 25.6 88% 2.0 17.0 88% 0.5 26.6 75% 1.9 39.1 88% 3.3 16.5 88% 1.9 29.1 75% 2.2 31.5 75% 1.2 26.4 88% 1.2 27.1 50% -0.1 26.2 75% 1.1 24.2 62% 0.5 32.4 75% 2.5 28.9 75% 0.6 25.4 88% 2.7 35.4 75% 2.1 36.6 75% 0.9 32.6
footycharts 62% 1.4 12.6 62% 1.5 26.1 88% 2.9 19.5 88% 1.9 20.7 88% 3.3 34.4 75% 3.2 16.0 88% 2.7 26.8 88% 3.2 28.6 75% 2.4 23.2 75% 2.7 23.9 62% 0.5 25.8 88% 2.9 19.1 62% -0.4 31.8 88% 3.0 30.6 75% 1.4 23.4 75% 2.5 43.8 75% 1.6 35.2 38% 0.5 36.9
The Cruncher 75% 2.7 17.4 75% 1.7 25.5 75% 2.6 21.2 88% 1.6 20.6 88% 3.7 33.8 88% 3.7 12.9 75% 1.4 31.4 62% 2.0 32.6 75% 2.4 22.3 75% 2.2 27.7 38% -1.7 31.9 75% 2.6 22.4 75% -0.3 35.7 88% 3.9 28.3 75% 1.4 24.5 75% 2.6 44.5 62% 2.2 33.4 62% 1.7 36.4
The Wooden Finger 88% 2.1 15.8 62% 1.4 25.8 88% 3.5 21.2 100% 2.7 20.0 88% 3.4 34.5 75% 2.7 15.9 62% 0.9 30.8 62% 2.9 30.0 75% 1.5 26.8 75% 2.4 24.9 62% -0.3 26.4 75% 2.6 24.5 75% -0.9 38.5 88% 4.1 24.8 88% 2.2 21.0 62% 1.6 46.9 62% 2.3 32.5 38% 0.3 41.2
AFL Lab 62% 1.6 18.3 62% 1.7 26.1 75% 1.8 24.7 75% 1.3 19.4 88% 3.3 33.3 62% 1.7 19.9 75% 2.2 30.9 88% 3.2 27.2 75% 2.5 22.7 88% 2.7 21.9 75% 0.7 25.0 75% 2.2 24.3 75% 0.4 33.5 88% 3.1 30.0 75% 1.5 22.2 75% 1.5 47.0 62% 2.4 34.6 50% -0.4 39.9
HBin 75% 2.5 15.5 88% 2.9 22.9 75% 2.0 23.5 88% 1.8 19.0 88% 2.0 36.9 75% 2.8 14.4 62% 1.0 28.5 62% 2.0 32.8 88% 2.6 23.8 75% 1.9 24.1 50% -2.4 29.3 62% 2.1 22.4 62% -1.5 36.8 88% 4.7 27.5 88% 1.9 21.9 75% 2.3 42.3 62% 1.4 34.7 62% 1.2 33.9
In The Game 75% 2.8 17.8 75% 0.7 27.4 62% 2.4 20.8 88% 1.7 20.2 88% 3.8 35.0 88% 3.5 12.8 62% 1.2 34.3 75% 2.8 30.2 88% 3.1 23.5 75% 2.2 22.5 25% -3.4 36.0 62% 2.8 24.9 50% -1.9 34.9 88% 4.6 21.3 62% 1.2 27.0 100% 5.3 32.4 62% 0.6 39.6 75% 1.7 34.6
Live Ladders 62% 1.3 14.0 50% 1.3 28.1 75% 2.3 18.4 88% 1.7 20.9 88% 2.9 35.4 75% 2.7 17.6 75% 2.2 27.1 75% 2.5 31.4 75% 2.2 26.5 88% 2.8 22.4 62% 0.7 25.2 88% 2.7 21.1 62% 0.1 31.9 88% 2.6 34.6 50% 0.9 25.1 75% 2.3 43.1 75% 2.4 36.9 50% 0.4 36.0
Informed Stats 62% 1.8 18.1 62% 0.8 30.4 75% 2.8 23.9 88% 2.2 21.0 88% 3.6 31.5 88% 3.7 7.8 75% -0.2 30.5 62% 2.1 32.2 75% 1.4 28.6 88% 3.1 23.9 50% -1.9 29.6 75% 2.3 26.8 62% -0.9 35.8 88% 5.0 22.8 75% 2.1 25.4 62% 2.0 44.4 62% 2.3 35.8 62% 1.4 35.0
Winnable 62% 1.8 14.5 75% 0.7 27.2 50% 1.1 23.9 62% 1.2 21.3 88% 3.8 33.0 88% 3.4 13.3 75% 2.1 28.0 75% 2.4 32.9 75% 3.1 21.0 88% 2.4 23.0 38% -1.6 32.8 75% 3.4 17.4 62% 0.9 27.9 88% 3.1 34.0 38% 0.9 24.8 100% 3.0 42.0 62% 2.5 34.0 75% 1.2 33.7
Stattraction 75% 2.0 13.8 62% 1.6 26.1 88% 2.9 21.6 88% 2.6 19.3 88% 3.0 36.0 75% 2.6 15.3 62% 1.4 26.4 62% 2.6 31.1 75% 2.2 24.4 62% 1.1 26.0 62% -0.3 26.9 62% 2.0 23.9 50% -0.1 33.7 88% 4.1 26.5 75% 2.2 23.0 62% 1.5 44.9 62% 2.5 32.5 50% 0.6 38.5
Graft 62% 1.2 24.1 62% 1.2 28.9 88% 2.9 25.5 88% 2.2 21.4 88% 3.0 37.6 75% 2.4 15.9 50% 1.1 33.5 62% 2.5 31.4 88% 2.0 23.5 75% 1.9 25.5 62% 0.6 26.6 75% 2.0 24.2 62% -0.4 39.2 88% 3.5 23.9 75% 1.4 29.0 62% 1.9 47.0 62% 2.4 34.2 25% 0.4 41.8
Squiggle 75% 1.0 11.6 75% 1.6 26.4 50% 1.8 23.9 88% 1.6 19.3 88% 3.0 35.2 75% 2.5 16.4 62% 1.1 30.1 75% 1.6 33.2 75% 2.4 21.3 75% 1.6 27.5 38% -0.8 32.2 75% 2.5 20.6 62% 0.2 30.2 88% 3.4 29.6 50% 1.1 22.2 88% 2.7 42.9 62% 2.2 36.9 50% 0.5 36.7
The Footycast 62% 1.5 14.0 62% 0.9 27.1 88% 2.4 21.0 75% 1.8 23.2 88% 2.8 31.6 75% 2.8 15.4 75% 1.5 30.5 62% 1.6 31.7 62% 0.7 28.2 75% 2.0 23.3 62% 0.5 25.6 75% 1.4 22.0 62% -0.5 31.9 88% 3.5 28.9 75% 1.7 23.6 62% 1.9 44.7 62% 1.5 36.5 38% 0.4 37.0
PlusSixOne 62% 1.1 15.1 75% 1.0 28.3 75% 2.9 19.0 88% 1.9 22.3 88% 3.0 31.8 88% 3.1 13.2 75% 1.4 26.7 50% 1.7 32.2 62% 0.9 29.8 75% 2.0 22.9 50% 0.4 26.2 62% 1.8 21.4 50% -0.6 33.5 88% 3.0 30.6 75% 1.1 26.5 75% 2.3 43.4 62% 1.3 39.9 50% -0.4 39.4
Elo Predicts! 62% 1.6 16.2 62% 1.0 29.6 75% 2.1 23.9 75% 2.0 20.6 75% 3.3 30.4 62% 2.4 14.8 50% 1.2 27.8 62% 2.4 31.6 88% 1.4 27.6 75% 2.0 21.6 50% -0.2 28.5 50% 1.2 30.1 50% -1.3 33.5 88% 3.8 26.8 75% 1.2 22.5 62% 1.4 43.1 62% 2.1 31.1 25% -0.4 38.2
Hyperion 67% 1.4 19.3 57% -0.1 27.4 83% 2.2 28.5 71% 1.2 18.7 86% 2.7 35.9 71% 3.3 14.7 71% 1.2 31.1 86% 3.3 27.3 88% 0.6 31.5 100% 2.7 23.9 43% -0.3 28.1 71% 1.7 27.4 43% -1.5 38.7 86% 3.8 26.0 62% 0.1 27.6 71% 1.2 35.6 57% 0.5 27.1 43% -1.7 47.1
Massey Ratings 75% 1.3 21.8 50% 0.6 26.7 100% 2.3 28.1 83% 1.0 16.5 80% 1.8 41.9 80% 2.0 13.5 67% 1.2 37.2 80% 1.6 31.9 83% 2.5 25.3 67% 1.8 28.5 50% -0.2 30.5 80% 2.5 28.1 40% 0.2 32.3 80% 2.5 27.1 80% 1.7 26.9 83% 1.5 37.8 75% 2.2 26.5 50% -0.1 45.8