LADDER Updated

Informed Stats
Graft
Wheelo Ratings
Live Ladders
Stattraction
Elo Predicts!
Squiggle
Matter of Stats
ZaphBot
Winnable
PlusSixOne
Glicko Ratings
Don't Blame the Data
AFL Lab
The Footycast
What Snoo Thinks
AFLalytics

After 1 game of Round 22, 2025. Click teams to reveal detailed projections.

Wins % Range
1
Adelaide 17.4 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 16.4 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–4
3
Brisbane Lions 16.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–4
4
Collingwood 16.1 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–5
5
Gold Coast 15.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
6
Fremantle 15.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–8
7
Hawthorn 14.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
8
Western Bulldogs 14.4 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
9
GWS 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
10
Sydney 11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
Carlton 8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
12
Port Adelaide 9.1 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
St Kilda 8.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
Melbourne 8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
Essendon 7.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
Richmond 5.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
North Melbourne 5.4 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
West Coast 1.4 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Informed Stats
17.6 149%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Graft
17.6 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Wheelo Ratings
17.6 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Live Ladders
17.5 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Stattraction
17.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Elo Predicts!
17.5 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Squiggle
17.3 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Matter of Stats
17.6 147%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
ZaphBot
17.2 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Winnable
17.4 149%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
PlusSixOne
17.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Glicko Ratings
17.4 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Don't Blame the Data
17.2 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
AFL Lab
17.3 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
The Footycast
17.2 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
What Snoo Thinks
15.2 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
AFLalytics
12.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
PlusSixOne
16.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
AFLalytics
13.2 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Wheelo Ratings
16.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
The Footycast
16.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Matter of Stats
16.5 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Live Ladders
16.4 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Squiggle
16.2 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
ZaphBot
16.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Graft
16.2 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
AFL Lab
15.9 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Winnable
16.5 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Don't Blame the Data
16.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Stattraction
16.4 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Elo Predicts!
16.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Glicko Ratings
16.4 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
What Snoo Thinks
14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Informed Stats
15.9 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
What Snoo Thinks
11.3 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
AFLalytics
10.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Winnable
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Wheelo Ratings
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Live Ladders
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Graft
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
AFL Lab
8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
PlusSixOne
8.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Matter of Stats
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Glicko Ratings
8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Squiggle
8.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
ZaphBot
8.6 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
The Footycast
8.5 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Elo Predicts!
8.5 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Stattraction
8.6 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Informed Stats
8.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Don't Blame the Data
8.3 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
What Snoo Thinks
18.2 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Don't Blame the Data
16.6 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Elo Predicts!
16.9 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
The Footycast
16.6 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Stattraction
16.5 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Glicko Ratings
16.6 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Informed Stats
16.7 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
AFL Lab
16.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Winnable
16.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Matter of Stats
16.5 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
ZaphBot
16.1 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
PlusSixOne
16.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Squiggle
15.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Live Ladders
15.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Wheelo Ratings
15.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Graft
15.8 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
AFLalytics
11.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
AFLalytics
10.3 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
What Snoo Thinks
9.3 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Don't Blame the Data
7.4 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
PlusSixOne
7.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Informed Stats
6.9 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Graft
7.0 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Squiggle
7.1 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Glicko Ratings
6.9 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Live Ladders
7.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Stattraction
6.8 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
AFL Lab
7.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Wheelo Ratings
6.8 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Winnable
6.9 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Elo Predicts!
6.3 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
ZaphBot
6.9 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
The Footycast
7.0 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Matter of Stats
6.7 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Informed Stats
16.0 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
The Footycast
15.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Don't Blame the Data
15.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Glicko Ratings
15.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
PlusSixOne
15.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Winnable
15.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
AFL Lab
15.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
ZaphBot
15.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Stattraction
15.2 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Matter of Stats
15.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Graft
15.4 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Squiggle
15.2 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Elo Predicts!
15.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Live Ladders
15.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Wheelo Ratings
15.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
What Snoo Thinks
13.6 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
AFLalytics
10.8 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
What Snoo Thinks
17.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Informed Stats
16.8 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Wheelo Ratings
16.6 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Live Ladders
16.5 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Graft
16.5 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
ZaphBot
16.4 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
AFL Lab
16.5 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Squiggle
16.3 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Matter of Stats
16.6 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Winnable
16.5 147%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
Elo Predicts!
16.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Stattraction
16.5 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Glicko Ratings
16.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
PlusSixOne
16.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
Don't Blame the Data
16.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
AFLalytics
12.8 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
The Footycast
16.2 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Informed Stats
16.6 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Graft
15.9 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Wheelo Ratings
15.9 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Live Ladders
15.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
Glicko Ratings
16.2 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Matter of Stats
16.1 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Elo Predicts!
16.3 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Stattraction
16.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Winnable
15.9 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Squiggle
15.7 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
ZaphBot
15.6 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
AFL Lab
15.6 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Don't Blame the Data
16.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
PlusSixOne
15.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
What Snoo Thinks
14.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
The Footycast
14.8 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
AFLalytics
11.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
AFLalytics
12.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
The Footycast
14.9 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Elo Predicts!
15.4 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Don't Blame the Data
14.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Live Ladders
14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Informed Stats
14.7 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Matter of Stats
14.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Glicko Ratings
14.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Stattraction
14.7 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
PlusSixOne
15.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
AFL Lab
14.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
ZaphBot
14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Winnable
14.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Squiggle
14.7 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Graft
14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Wheelo Ratings
14.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
What Snoo Thinks
11.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
AFLalytics
13.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
Squiggle
15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Graft
15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Live Ladders
15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
PlusSixOne
15.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
ZaphBot
15.1 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
What Snoo Thinks
13.7 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Wheelo Ratings
14.9 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Don't Blame the Data
14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
The Footycast
14.5 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Stattraction
14.5 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Glicko Ratings
14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Informed Stats
14.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
AFL Lab
14.3 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Winnable
14.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Matter of Stats
14.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Elo Predicts!
14.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
What Snoo Thinks
10.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Live Ladders
8.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
AFLalytics
10.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
AFL Lab
8.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Glicko Ratings
8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
The Footycast
8.1 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
ZaphBot
8.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Graft
8.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Winnable
8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Squiggle
8.1 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Matter of Stats
8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Wheelo Ratings
7.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Stattraction
7.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
PlusSixOne
7.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Don't Blame the Data
8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Informed Stats
7.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Elo Predicts!
7.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
What Snoo Thinks
5.7 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
AFLalytics
8.4 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
PlusSixOne
5.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
ZaphBot
5.7 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Wheelo Ratings
5.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Stattraction
5.4 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Matter of Stats
5.3 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Squiggle
5.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Winnable
5.4 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Glicko Ratings
5.4 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
The Footycast
5.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Don't Blame the Data
5.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Graft
5.3 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Elo Predicts!
4.5 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
AFL Lab
4.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Informed Stats
5.3 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Live Ladders
5.2 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
AFLalytics
10.3 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Don't Blame the Data
8.9 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
The Footycast
9.2 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
ZaphBot
9.2 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Squiggle
9.3 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
PlusSixOne
9.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Elo Predicts!
8.8 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Matter of Stats
9.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Stattraction
9.0 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Glicko Ratings
8.7 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Informed Stats
8.4 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Graft
9.1 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Wheelo Ratings
9.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Live Ladders
9.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
AFL Lab
9.1 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Winnable
8.9 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
What Snoo Thinks
9.2 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
AFLalytics
9.7 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
AFL Lab
6.0 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Live Ladders
6.1 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
The Footycast
6.1 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Squiggle
6.0 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Don't Blame the Data
5.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Winnable
5.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Informed Stats
5.5 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Glicko Ratings
5.8 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Matter of Stats
5.8 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Graft
5.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
PlusSixOne
5.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
ZaphBot
5.8 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Elo Predicts!
5.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Wheelo Ratings
5.7 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Stattraction
5.6 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
What Snoo Thinks
5.1 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Informed Stats
8.8 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Elo Predicts!
8.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Stattraction
8.8 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Don't Blame the Data
8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Glicko Ratings
8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Matter of Stats
8.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Wheelo Ratings
8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
AFL Lab
8.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Winnable
8.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Graft
8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Squiggle
8.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
ZaphBot
8.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
The Footycast
8.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
PlusSixOne
8.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Live Ladders
8.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
What Snoo Thinks
9.3 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
AFLalytics
10.1 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Elo Predicts!
11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Informed Stats
11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Stattraction
11.4 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
ZaphBot
11.5 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Glicko Ratings
11.5 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
The Footycast
11.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Matter of Stats
11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Squiggle
11.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Winnable
11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Graft
11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Wheelo Ratings
11.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Don't Blame the Data
11.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
Live Ladders
11.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
AFL Lab
11.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
PlusSixOne
11.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
What Snoo Thinks
10.0 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
AFLalytics
10.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
AFLalytics
7.3 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
What Snoo Thinks
3.2 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
The Footycast
1.6 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
ZaphBot
1.5 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Live Ladders
1.5 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Don't Blame the Data
1.5 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Squiggle
1.5 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
PlusSixOne
1.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Graft
1.4 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Stattraction
1.3 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Winnable
1.3 59%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
AFL Lab
1.3 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Wheelo Ratings
1.3 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Informed Stats
1.3 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Matter of Stats
1.3 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Glicko Ratings
1.2 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Elo Predicts!
1.0 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
What Snoo Thinks
15.0 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
AFLalytics
12.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
Wheelo Ratings
14.6 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
Winnable
14.5 148%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
AFL Lab
14.3 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
Matter of Stats
14.6 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Squiggle
14.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Graft
14.5 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Elo Predicts!
14.7 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
Stattraction
14.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
PlusSixOne
14.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
The Footycast
14.2 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Glicko Ratings
14.4 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
ZaphBot
14.3 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Live Ladders
14.3 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Don't Blame the Data
14.3 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
Informed Stats
14.4 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9

Live Hasn't factored in current round in progress Hasn't factored in last completed round

This ladder is a weighted average of all models: Full weighting 0% weighting 0% weighting

+ About ladder projections...

Ladder Projections are weirder than they first appear! It's natural to think that there are many possible ladders and we should simply pick the most likely one. The problem is there are far more possible ladders than you can imagine—more than the number of atoms in the universe. Even ignoring the number of wins and simply trying to rank teams in order, there are 6.4 quadrillion possible combinations.

Until there are only one or two rounds left, even the most likely ladder has no chance of actually occurring — the likelihood is so close to zero, it may as well be.

So we need to abandon any hope of being able to actually pick the final ladder. Instead, what we're attempting to do is to minimize the amount of error between our prediction and reality.

This raises a few subjective questions, such as: What is the most important part of a ladder? Is it the ranking or the number of wins? Because we can't always minimize the error in both at once.

This ladder cares most about ranks, because that determines finals positions. But ranks are derived from wins, and wins are more predictable — a good model should get the number of wins about right, but can easily miss the mark on ranks, since those can change sharply from only a few unexpected results, particularly around the middle of the ladder.

Projected ladders, then, are a series of compromises. They won't get everything right, and they often can't make one thing more right without making something else more wrong. Such quirks are the unavoidable result of attempting to distill a wide range of possible futures down into one single ladder — which will definitely be wrong, but is hopefully close.

Common Questions

Q. Why is the season tipped to be so close?

Most early-season projections will predict an unusually close year, tipping too few wins for the top team and too many for the wooden spooner. This isn't an error; it's because "How many wins will the top team have, whoever they turn out to be?" is actually a different question to "How many wins will Geelong have?" — even if we expect Geelong to finish on top!

It's highly likely that the minor premier will turn out to be a team that wins more games than people expected. But we can't know who this will be, since we can't predict who will be better than we predict.

It's the same as tossing a coin 10 times: If I'm predicting a ladder, I'd say heads and tails will each go 5-5, since this is their long-term average. I know that whichever one finishes on top will probably score 6 or more flips (75% chance), but I can't say which one that will be. I have to choose which question I want to get right: the number of wins for each team, or the number of wins of whoever finishes on top. If I choose to answer the first question, I will get a more accurate forecast of wins per team, but at the price of sacrificing some accuracy from the shape of the overall win distribution.

Q. Why is a team ranked lower even though it has more projected wins?

Usually because of percentage. When a team is projected to have "12.2 wins," this really means: "a bit more likely to have over 12 wins than under." At the end of the season, everyone will have whole numbers of wins (plus draws), and at this point, their ladder position may be determined by their percentage. Ladder projections based on tens of thousands of simulations can tally up the number of times this occurs and figure out which may matter more: an edge in projected wins or a lead in percentage.

It's also possible for this to happen because this is an aggregate Projected Ladder, combining the predictions of many different sources, and it prioritizes predicted ranks over anything else. So if, on average, the sources rank Port Adelaide higher than Richmond, that's where the Projected Ladder will place them, too. It will do this even if, on average, Richmond have higher both predicted wins and predicted percentage — which is possible because different models will have different ideas about how wins might be distributed. Fundamentally, the Projected Ladder trusts each source to interpret its own data and reach sensible conclusions about what this means in terms of likely finishing position.

It's also worth noting that there's a little more sophistication than meets the eye in how "average rank" is calculated. For sources that provide finish position estimates — those colourful bars that show how likely each team is to finish in each position — the Projected Ladder calculates true average finishing ranks, rather than relying on simple ordinals. For example, if a model says that West Coast have a 90% chance of finishing 1st and a 10% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal finishing rank is 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.1. If they have a 60% chance of finishing 1st and a 40% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal rank is still 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.4 — much closer to the midpoint of 1st and 2nd. In this way, the Projected Ladder is able to distinguish more precisely between teams predicted to finish close together.

Q. Why doesn't the ladder make logical sense?

Sometimes ladders don't add up to the exact right number of wins, or predict teams to finish in logically impossible places, such as tipping a team to finish 4th with one round to go when it must finish either 3rd or 5th. The natural human response is to think that if they can't get even such basic things right, they shouldn't be trusted at all. In fact, the ladder is probably prioritizing error minimization, and is likely to be more accurate, at least by that measure, than a ladder that insists on being logically possible.

After 1 game of Round 22, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Adelaide 15 5 144.1%
+2.4
1
2
Collingwood 15 6 124.2%
+1.1
4
3
Brisbane Lions 14 5 1 112.1%
+1.8
3
4
Geelong 14 6 138.6%
+2.4
2
5
Hawthorn 14 7 121.2%
+0.9
7
6
Fremantle 14 6 113.0%
+1.3
6
7
Gold Coast 13 6 125.1%
+2.6
5
8
GWS 13 7 111.3%
+1.9
9
9
Western Bulldogs 12 8 137.3%
+2.4
8
10
Sydney 10 10 95.0%
+1.3
10
11
Port Adelaide 8 12 79.8%
+1.1
12
12
Melbourne 7 13 95.0%
+1.0
14
13
Carlton 7 13 92.1%
+1.7
11
14
St Kilda 7 13 87.4%
+1.5
13
15
Essendon 6 13 72.0%
+1.0
15
16
Richmond 5 15 65.5%
+0.9
16
17
North Melbourne 4 15 1 73.4%
+0.9
17
18
West Coast 1 19 61.9%
+0.4
18

Yet to play