LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Geelong Melbourne Sydney Collingwood Fremantle Brisbane Lions Richmond Western Bulldogs Carlton St Kilda Port Adelaide Gold Coast Hawthorn Adelaide Essendon Greater Western Sydney West Coast North Melbourne
Squiggle 162.7 3.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.7 8.7 9.1 10.0 6.2 8.5 5.9 1.9 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.0 5.9 5.6 7.7 6.5 7.2 8.2 7.6 6.5 8.7 9.0
AFLalytics 162.7 2.7 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.7 8.8 9.1 10.0 6.6 8.3 6.5 2.0 6.9 6.1 6.2 7.1 5.8 5.8 7.7 6.9 7.1 8.2 7.7 6.4 8.5 8.4
Wheelo Ratings 162.4 2.5 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.8 8.8 9.0 10.0 6.2 8.2 6.5 2.8 6.4 5.5 6.2 7.3 6.1 6.1 7.7 7.0 7.0 8.1 7.7 6.1 8.5 8.5
Live Ladders 160.3 3.2 4.7 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.8 9.2 10.0 5.2 8.3 5.3 2.9 5.6 5.0 7.4 6.9 6.6 5.2 7.5 6.5 7.3 8.2 7.5 6.8 9.1 8.8
The Cruncher 159.6 2.9 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.6 9.1 10.0 5.0 8.4 7.1 0.4 6.6 6.1 6.7 7.2 6.1 6.5 7.1 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.2 7.0 8.2 8.3
PlusSixOne 159.2 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.1 8.8 8.9 9.0 10.0 5.2 7.6 7.0 2.1 6.1 5.9 6.9 7.1 6.4 6.4 7.1 6.5 7.0 7.9 7.6 6.7 7.8 8.1
Elo Predicts! 158.4 1.5 3.3 4.4 4.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.9 5.5 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.2 9.0 9.1 9.2 10.0 6.4 8.5 8.0 -0.1 4.9 4.4 7.9 7.3 7.3 5.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 8.0 7.5 5.2 8.7 9.1
AFL Lab 158.4 3.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.7 8.8 9.1 10.0 4.6 8.6 4.2 2.6 5.9 4.9 7.1 7.4 6.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 8.6 8.7
Matter of Stats 157.8 2.4 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.7 8.8 9.2 10.0 4.6 8.4 5.8 2.4 6.7 6.1 6.2 7.2 5.6 5.4 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.8 7.7 6.4 8.5 8.2
The Footycast 157.6 2.1 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.8 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.0 5.6 8.3 6.7 1.6 5.9 5.1 6.5 7.2 5.6 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.0 8.1 7.8 6.4 8.7 8.2
ZaphBot 152.8 1.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.9 10.0 5.4 8.6 7.5 1.0 5.6 4.1 5.5 7.5 6.2 4.9 7.2 6.6 7.0 8.0 7.0 5.8 8.6 7.9
Glicko Ratings 152.8 2.2 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.7 8.7 9.1 10.0 5.0 8.2 6.2 0.1 6.4 6.2 6.2 7.1 5.8 5.6 7.1 6.9 6.6 7.9 7.5 5.4 8.4 7.9
FMI 148.1 1.4 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.1 5.8 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.7 6.7 7.3 7.4 7.9 7.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 10.0 5.7 7.6 7.6 -0.5 4.8 4.0 7.7 6.0 5.7 5.2 6.9 4.3 7.3 8.4 7.4 6.1 8.5 8.5
Graft 119.4 6.3 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.7 8.7 9.1 10.0 6.7 8.1 7.2 2.1 8.0 4.7 7.8 8.0 5.8 6.7 8.6 7.3 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.1 9.4 9.4
Ladder 98.0 -0.8 -0.8 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.4 3.1 3.8 5.8 5.4 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.7 10.0 1.7 8.1 2.2 0.7 4.5 1.2 3.9 3.6 0.4 2.1 4.9 6.3 3.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 8.0 7.1

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 15
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 15
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 16
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 16
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 17
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 17
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 19
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 20
10.00000000 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 20
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 20
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 20
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 21
10.00000000 FMI Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 21
10.00000000 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 21
10.00000000 FMI North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 21
10.00000000 FMI West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 21
10.00000000 AFL Lab Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 PlusSixOne Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 Graft Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 AFLalytics Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 Squiggle Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 Live Ladders Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 22
10.00000000 ZaphBot Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 1st 22

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-14.0 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-13.2 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-12.8 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-12.3 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-12.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-11.8 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-11.4 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 5
-11.0 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-10.7 Graft Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-10.4 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-10.1 ZaphBot Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-10.0 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-9.9 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-9.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 1
-9.6 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
-9.3 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 1
-9.2 The Cruncher Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-9.2 ZaphBot Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-9.1 AFLalytics Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 9
-9.1 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 4
-9.0 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 4th 4
-9.0 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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18
 4th 0
-8.9 The Footycast Collingwood
1
2
3
4
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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17
18
 4th 9
-8.8 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 16th 0
-8.8 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 1

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
39.2 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
37.7 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
37.6 Elo Predicts! Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 1
35.1 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 16th 0
35.1 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 13th 3
33.8 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
32.9 FMI Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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16
17
18
 16th 1
31.8 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
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11
12
13
14
15
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18
 16th 0
31.1 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11th 0
30.9 The Footycast Greater Western Sydney
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
29.7 FMI Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
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8
9
10
11
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18
 13th 3
29.0 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
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11
12
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18
 11th 0
29.0 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
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5
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9
10
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18
 15th 0
28.5 FMI Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
11
12
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14
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18
 12th 14
28.4 FMI Port Adelaide
1
2
3
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 11th 1
27.9 ZaphBot Greater Western Sydney
1
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18
 16th 1
27.7 Elo Predicts! Port Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 11th 1
27.1 PlusSixOne West Coast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
15
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18
 17th 0
27.0 Glicko Ratings Greater Western Sydney
1
2
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18
 16th 1
26.6 Matter of Stats Hawthorn
1
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18
 13th 2
26.4 Wheelo Ratings Greater Western Sydney
1
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 16th 0
26.2 FMI Gold Coast
1
2
3
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5
6
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8
9
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14
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18
 12th 15
26.1 The Footycast Hawthorn
1
2
3
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5
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8
9
10
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18
 13th 2
26.1 Matter of Stats Greater Western Sydney
1
2
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8
9
10
11
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14
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18
 16th 0
26.0 The Footycast Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18
 15th 0
26.0 AFLalytics Essendon
1
2
3
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-47.9 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-46.4 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-45.7 FMI Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4th 0
-44.6 FMI Fremantle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-44.5 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
1
2
3
4
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 5th 2
-43.7 FMI Collingwood
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 4th 9
-42.8 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 4th 5
-42.0 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 4th 9
-41.4 Graft Collingwood
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 4th 9
-40.7 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 5th 0
-40.2 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 4th 9
-40.1 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 4th 9
-39.8 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 5th 0
-39.3 Elo Predicts! Fremantle
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 5th 1
-38.6 FMI Fremantle
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 5th 1
-38.4 The Cruncher Collingwood
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 4th 9
-38.3 ZaphBot Fremantle
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 5th 2
-38.1 AFLalytics Collingwood
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 4th 9
-38.1 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 4th 4
-38.1 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 4th 4
-38.0 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 4th 0
-37.8 The Footycast Collingwood
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 4th 9
-37.6 Squiggle Collingwood
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 4th 9
-36.6 Live Ladders Fremantle
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 5th 2
-36.5 The Footycast Collingwood
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 4th 0