LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Collingwood Brisbane Lions Adelaide Hawthorn Geelong Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Gold Coast Western Bulldogs Sydney Port Adelaide Carlton Melbourne Essendon St Kilda Richmond North Melbourne West Coast
Live Ladders 146.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 6.3 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 6.1 5.2 4.8 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.4 4.9 4.8 7.6 7.0 7.5 7.6 7.4 3.7 8.9 9.0 9.2
The Footycast 144.5 4.1 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.6 4.9 5.6 6.5 6.0 6.7 7.2 6.3 6.4 4.4 6.4 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.7 3.7 8.5 8.0 9.2
ZaphBot 143.6 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.3 1.5 8.5 2.5 6.8 6.4 7.1 6.7 5.3 6.0 5.5 7.1 8.0 7.6 8.5 4.4 8.5 7.4 9.7
Squiggle 141.9 4.7 4.6 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.5 6.1 5.0 6.2 5.9 6.7 6.1 6.7 4.8 3.5 7.4 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 4.3 8.3 7.5 8.8
Winnable 141.7 4.7 4.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.2 6.1 5.9 5.0 6.4 6.7 4.9 6.8 5.7 1.5 7.1 7.1 6.1 7.6 7.6 5.9 8.5 7.7 9.3
Wheelo Ratings 138.4 4.2 4.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.2 4.6 4.9 6.1 5.7 6.5 6.3 6.4 5.0 3.1 7.5 6.8 6.5 7.4 7.3 4.1 8.3 7.7 9.0
Don't Blame the Data 138.2 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.7 5.2 7.2 3.7 7.4 7.2 6.9 5.9 5.2 3.2 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 5.5 5.4 8.8 8.7 9.0
Graft 134.1 3.6 3.9 6.2 6.3 5.9 5.7 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.9 8.3 4.6 4.9 6.5 5.4 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.5 2.3 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.7 8.1 4.4 8.7 8.5 9.6
Stattraction 133.5 4.1 4.0 5.8 6.2 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.8 6.7 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.4 4.5 6.5 5.0 6.7 6.8 5.5 6.3 4.6 1.9 7.1 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.1 4.2 8.7 8.6 9.4
Glicko Ratings 132.7 4.8 4.6 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.9 8.2 4.7 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.7 6.2 6.9 4.3 3.0 7.5 6.6 5.7 7.3 6.1 6.4 8.5 7.8 9.1
Matter of Stats 132.4 4.3 4.2 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.7 8.1 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.3 2.1 7.4 6.8 6.3 7.1 7.8 4.4 8.4 8.3 9.1
AFL Lab 132.3 3.9 3.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.4 5.2 6.9 4.4 6.3 6.3 5.6 4.7 6.4 3.5 7.2 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.6 2.6 8.6 9.0 9.1
Elo Predicts! 131.4 3.4 4.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 6.3 7.5 6.1 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.2 6.9 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.7 8.4 8.4 4.2 8.3 1.4 7.1 6.2 6.5 5.3 6.1 2.3 5.2 6.9 6.1 6.5 8.8 4.0 9.2 9.0 9.6
PlusSixOne 129.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.1 7.9 3.6 4.3 4.8 4.8 6.5 6.0 6.7 5.9 4.9 6.7 6.7 5.7 6.7 6.2 3.5 7.3 7.2 8.0
What Snoo Thinks 123.8 4.0 4.0 4.3 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.2 4.1 4.2 6.4 5.8 5.0 6.2 5.4 -0.4 6.6 6.3 4.9 6.8 8.1 4.3 8.9 8.9 9.4
Informed Stats 108.9 5.2 5.5 6.3 6.6 6.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.8 8.6 7.0 5.9 4.3 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 4.7 1.1 6.8 6.2 7.3 7.7 7.7 3.5 9.1 9.2 10.0
Ladder 106.1 -0.5 -0.5 2.2 1.5 2.2 3.8 4.4 6.1 4.4 3.8 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.8 6.4 7.4 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.7 10.0 6.4 7.3 6.4 5.5 5.1 4.5 2.4 0.6 5.1 3.8 5.1 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.0 6.9 4.7 9.7
AFLalytics 9.1 3.9 5.2 -4.6 4.7 1.0 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.0 5.5 4.5 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 2.7 5.2 7.0 5.9

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. Preseason ladder predictions are "Round -1" in years with an "Opening Round" and "Round 0" otherwise.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
3
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9
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 18th 13
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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7
8
9
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 18th 14
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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8
9
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11
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 18th 15
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
9
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 18th 18
10.00000000 Squiggle West Coast
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 18th 19
10.00000000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
9
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 18th 19
10.00000000 Glicko Ratings West Coast
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 18th 19
10.00000000 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999988 Informed Stats West Coast
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 18th 18
9.99999974 Stattraction West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999968 Winnable West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999926 Wheelo Ratings West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999926 Graft West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999924 Matter of Stats West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99999706 ZaphBot West Coast
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2
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 18th 19
9.99999576 Live Ladders West Coast
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2
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 18th 19
9.99999035 Don't Blame the Data West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99997353 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 17
9.99996324 AFL Lab West Coast
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 18th 19
9.99976176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
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 18th 16
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 6
9.99970588 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
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 18th 9
9.99950294 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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9
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 18th 10
9.99950000 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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 18th 11
9.99941176 Elo Predicts! West Coast
1
2
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8
9
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 18th 12
9.99932647 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 19

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-16.6 Graft Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.9 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-14.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-13.4 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-12.6 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-12.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.9 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-11.4 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.3 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-11.1 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-10.8 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-10.5 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-10.4 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-9.8 Live Ladders Collingwood
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 1st 0
-9.6 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-9.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-8.7 Squiggle Collingwood
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 1st 0
-8.7 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-8.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 2
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 0
-7.9 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st -1
-7.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
35.3 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
34.9 The Footycast St Kilda
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 15th 4
33.4 Informed Stats Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
32.9 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 4
32.3 Graft St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.9 Elo Predicts! St Kilda
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 15th 4
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 11
31.6 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 12
31.2 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 8
31.1 AFL Lab St Kilda
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 15th 4
30.7 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 3
30.3 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 4
29.8 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th 2
29.6 Live Ladders St Kilda
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 15th 3
29.4 What Snoo Thinks St Kilda
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 15th 5
29.3 Matter of Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.2 Elo Predicts! Sydney
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 10th -1
29.0 Wheelo Ratings St Kilda
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 15th 4
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th -1
29.0 What Snoo Thinks Western Bulldogs
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 9th 0
28.6 Informed Stats St Kilda
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 15th 4
28.4 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 9th 8
28.1 Stattraction St Kilda
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 15th 4
27.6 ZaphBot Sydney
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 10th -1
27.5 Graft Western Bulldogs
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 9th 10

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-53.2 Graft Collingwood
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-49.8 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 0
-48.0 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.9 The Footycast Collingwood
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 1st 0
-47.5 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st -1
-46.8 ZaphBot Adelaide
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 3rd -1
-45.2 AFL Lab Collingwood
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 1st 0
-44.0 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st 1
-43.7 Matter of Stats Collingwood
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 1st 0
-43.7 ZaphBot Collingwood
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 1st 1
-42.8 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 0
-42.7 Glicko Ratings Collingwood
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-42.2 Graft Collingwood
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 1st -1
-41.5 Wheelo Ratings Collingwood
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 1st 0
-40.9 ZaphBot Adelaide
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-40.7 Stattraction Collingwood
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 1st -1
-39.6 Live Ladders Collingwood
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-39.2 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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 3rd 0
-38.6 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st -1
-37.4 Squiggle Collingwood
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Adelaide
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-37.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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-35.7 What Snoo Thinks Collingwood
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 1st -1
-35.7 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
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 1st 3