LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Geelong Greater Western Sydney Sydney Melbourne Port Adelaide Carlton Essendon Collingwood Western Bulldogs Fremantle Gold Coast Adelaide Brisbane Lions St Kilda West Coast Hawthorn Richmond North Melbourne
Live Ladders 46.2 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.1 7.4 3.6 7.3 6.5 6.5 7.3 7.1 -0.6 6.3 6.8 5.5 6.6 6.1 3.1 1.5 6.3 7.8 7.0 9.1
AFLalytics 43.8 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.9 7.5 3.2 5.5 6.2 6.0 6.7 6.8 1.9 6.0 6.5 5.2 4.7 6.0 4.6 2.8 7.1 6.5 5.3 7.3
Squiggle 43.0 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.7 7.2 4.2 4.6 5.2 7.2 6.4 6.7 2.1 5.5 6.6 5.0 5.2 5.8 3.5 2.7 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.7
Wheelo Ratings 41.8 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.6 7.1 2.3 5.8 6.1 6.8 6.3 6.6 0.2 6.3 6.4 5.5 4.8 5.7 2.8 3.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 7.6
Glicko Ratings 40.2 4.0 4.8 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 -0.0 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.9 4.6 5.6 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.6 4.6 5.4 5.9 5.6 3.0 8.8
Winnable 39.7 3.1 4.2 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.4 6.2 6.2 3.1 3.2 5.1 6.2 5.8 6.4 3.3 5.9 6.2 5.8 5.1 5.5 1.5 2.1 6.4 4.3 5.0 8.4
Don't Blame the Data 39.4 4.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.9 5.6 1.6 7.5 7.6 7.2 6.7 2.4 5.9 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.3 0.6 3.6 6.6 7.0 5.7 9.2
The Footycast 38.4 3.2 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.4 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.3 7.0 6.8 4.1 3.9 6.4 5.1 7.0 6.1 3.1 2.3 5.8 8.3 4.5 8.2
Elo Predicts! 37.3 3.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 5.4 7.5 -4.3 6.5 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.1 -7.2 2.7 4.1 9.7 2.5 9.0
ZaphBot 36.6 3.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.8 6.7 3.0 7.0 6.3 7.4 6.6 6.6 -4.6 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.0 5.6 1.2 3.5 3.6 8.4 5.3 7.3
Stattraction 35.9 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.9 4.3 7.4 4.4 7.5 7.3 6.8 -5.2 5.8 7.1 5.6 6.4 5.9 -2.7 5.2 3.9 8.4 6.6 7.7
What Snoo Thinks 35.4 2.3 4.5 4.5 5.7 5.5 5.8 7.1 -3.2 8.1 6.0 7.4 7.5 7.2 -4.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 4.9 4.2 1.7 4.9 5.2 7.0 6.5 8.3
PlusSixOne 35.0 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.7 1.8 0.5 3.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 3.9 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.1 5.4 2.8 2.0 7.2 5.1 1.0 5.6
AFL Lab 33.8 3.4 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.1 6.0 1.0 2.8 4.9 6.8 7.0 6.4 0.9 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.3 4.9 2.4 2.8 6.9 5.6 3.1 7.9
Matter of Stats 33.3 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 6.7 0.7 5.6 5.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 -1.0 5.6 6.2 4.4 5.7 4.9 1.9 2.6 6.8 5.8 5.0 6.6
Ladder 31.1 0.2 2.5 2.8 3.8 4.8 7.1 10.0 1.2 7.5 7.5 5.8 6.6 7.1 4.5 -1.8 3.7 -0.1 3.3 4.1 7.1 2.0 4.1 7.1 3.3 7.1
Informed Stats 16.8 5.3 5.4 6.0 8.3 5.4 6.8 7.7 5.6 6.2 -4.6 6.5 7.0 6.9 7.2 8.3 -3.2 5.7 3.9 8.8 5.4 8.7
FMI 16.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 -3.4 4.1 4.2 7.5 -2.9 7.0 -5.5 4.9 6.6 6.8 4.2 0.7 -9.0 -0.9 7.7 7.0 2.1 1.8

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99457059 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.99247535 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98666897 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98637976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94385882 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 3
9.93033529 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 4
9.90697941 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 1
9.90534376 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87770882 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87156003 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.87096176 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 2
9.86334068 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.84172806 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.83310041 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.83292647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.80747021 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.78399047 Winnable North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.73410588 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 0
9.70503568 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.69313718 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 4
9.69232941 ZaphBot North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.62200882 AFL Lab North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.61033235 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 5
9.59135188 Wheelo Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.57119388 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.53003109 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.7 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-13.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-12.5 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-12.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-11.7 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-9.8 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
-9.8 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-9.2 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 4
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
-8.3 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-8.3 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-7.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-7.7 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
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7
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9
10
11
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18
 7th 4
-7.3 Glicko Ratings Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 1st 0
-7.2 Matter of Stats Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 1st 0
-7.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
46.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
44.6 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
39.6 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
38.5 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 4
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
36.7 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
34.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
33.5 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
33.3 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
32.3 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
30.9 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
29.3 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
28.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
27.0 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
26.6 PlusSixOne Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 17th 0
26.3 What Snoo Thinks Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
26.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
25.4 AFL Lab Richmond
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 17th 0
24.9 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
24.4 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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18
 13th 5
24.2 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-59.4 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-45.0 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-43.3 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.5 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-36.7 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-35.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-35.8 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-35.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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 7th 0
-35.4 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.6 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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-34.4 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 0
-34.0 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 2
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 1
-33.8 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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 1st 1
-33.8 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 2
-33.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 4
-33.6 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 5
-32.5 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 1
-31.8 ZaphBot Essendon
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 7th 2
-30.8 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 4
-30.1 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 1
-30.0 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 1