The Arc Archives - Page 2 of 2

The Bookies Bite Back

April 27, 2017April 27, 2017

Punters have known best lately, with the favorites returning 7 tips in each of the last two rounds.

But Figuring Footy is still claiming first place off the back of a great season opening!

	Tips	Bits
5 9 4 6 7	31	4.1117
Punters 4 8 4 7 7	30	5.6630
PlusSixOne 5 8 4 7 6	30	4.6239
Aggregate 5 8 4 6 7	30	4.0893
5 7 5 6 6	29	1.0637
4 7 4 6 7	28	3.8395
3 8 4 6 7	28	3.3945
5 8 5 5 5	28	1.5787

Disaster for Squiggle, which went out on a limb on Round 5 tips for North Melbourne over Fremantle, and the Demons over the Tigers, and came up short on both.

You can now track these numbers in the new auto-updating Tip Leaderboard.

Why can’t the Eagles fly?

April 23, 2017April 23, 2017

The Arc takes a look at win rates on the road:

The difference between the Eagles’ win percentage in their home state (75.6%) and interstate (53%) is 22.6% – the third largest in the league, but not a million miles away from some other quality teams.

Source: Why can’t the Eagles fly? | The Arc

Don’t Stress If Your Team Is 0-2

April 7, 2017April 10, 2017

Hurling People Now and The Arc join forces to show that 0-2 is not a death sentence:

It’s quite possible to get out to a slow start and have a successful season, and the conditions seem to be as good in 2017 as they have been in any other recent year.

Source: The Arc/HPN Crossover: Don’t Stress If Your Team Is 0-2 | Hurling People Now

More on the importance of the early rounds

April 2, 2017April 10, 2017

Two more articles on what early results really mean.

First a fantastic follow-up to the great piece last week from The Arc:

Here’s a version of that graph extended to the full home-and-away season. Cool, IMO. Using this chart, you can look up how many games your team is on pace to win for the year. For example – if your team has won 6 from their first 9 (a 6-3 record), then they’re on pace to win 13.9 for the year – enough to comfortably make the finals.

Source: More on the importance of the early rounds | The Arc

And here’s a particular examination of Round 1 upsets by Hurling People Now:

We have considered two classes of results: eventual finalists beaten in round one by teams who missed the finals, and eventual finalists beaten by other finalists who finished lower down the ladder.

Source: What does winning in round 1 mean?

How important are early wins?

March 29, 2017April 10, 2017

A brilliant article on ESPN by The Arc’s Matt Cowgill, looking at how much we can predict from early wins/losses:

Think it’s okay for your club to slowly work its way into the season? Think again. Statistics show the early rounds do more than any other point in the season to set teams on a path to finals – or not.

Source: Footy Forensics Statistics prove it is crunch time already in the 2017 AFL season

How impressive was Dusty’s game?

March 23, 2017March 23, 2017

The Arc on what a 33-disposal, 4-goal game looks like. (Answer: A dude in red board shorts surfing a pretty big wave.)

Commentators raved about Dustin Martin’s first game of the 2017 season. They were right.

Source: How impressive was Dusty’s game? | The Arc

Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds

February 16, 2017March 17, 2017

The Arc has an analysis of entries into tip-the-finalists competition:

Entrants to the finalists-tipping competition are very sure that the GWS Giants will make the finals, with good reason. The median estimate was that the Giants have an 88.4% shot at the finals this year. That’s more bullish than the chances given to the Giants by the betting markets (79%) or our Elo model (72.8%). At the other end of the scale, the clear consensus is that the Lions have a tiny chance of making it.

Source: Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds | The Arc

		Wins	%	Range
1	Geelong	16.2	124%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	1
2	GWS	14.5	116%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–5
3	Melbourne	14.3	118%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–5
4	Carlton	14.3	112%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–6
5	Sydney	13.8	112%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	4–7
6	Port Adelaide	13.7	114%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2–8
7	Collingwood	12.6	107%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	7–11
8	Gold Coast	12.3	106%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	6–13
9	Brisbane Lions	12.3	113%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	5–12
10	Western Bulldogs	11.8	109%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	7–12
11	Fremantle	11.8	103%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	7–12
12	Essendon	11.6	94%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	9–14
13	St Kilda	10.9	100%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	10–13
14	Adelaide	9.3	95%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	13–14
15	Richmond	7.3	83%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15–17
16	Hawthorn	7.3	83%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15–17
17	West Coast	7.2	78%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15–17
18	North Melbourne	4.3	65%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	18

							PROJECTIONS
		W	L	D	%	History	Wins	Finish
1	Geelong	6	–	–	141.3%		+10.2	1
2	GWS	5	1	–	129.7%		+9.5	2
3	Carlton	5	1	–	117.5%		+9.3	4
4	Sydney	4∗	1	–	126.9%		+9.8	5
5	Port Adelaide	4	2	–	121.2%		+9.7	6
6	Melbourne	4	2	–	118.5%		+10.3	3
7	Essendon	4	2	–	92.7%		+7.6	12
8	Western Bulldogs	3	3	–	123.0%		+8.8	10
9	Fremantle	3	3	–	108.0%		+8.8	11
10	Gold Coast	3∗	2	–	105.5%		+9.3	8
11	Collingwood	3	3	–	97.6%		+9.6	7
12	Brisbane Lions	2	4	–	105.0%		+10.3	9
13	St Kilda	2	4	–	89.6%		+8.9	13
14	West Coast	2	4	–	75.5%		+5.2	17
15	Adelaide	1	5	–	84.1%		+8.3	14
16	Richmond	1	5	–	79.5%		+6.3	15
17	Hawthorn	–∗	5	–	64.8%		+7.3	16
18	North Melbourne	–∗	5	–	56.5%		+4.3	18

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 7 7 5 9 4 3	38	7.00	22.75	73.1%
3 7 6 4 9 4 3	36	8.50	23.43	69.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 3	36	6.74	24.17	69.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 3	35	7.64	23.52	67.3%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 2	35	6.46	23.77	67.3%
3 8 7 4 8 4 1	35	6.46	24.17	67.3%
3 7 6 4 9 4 2	35	6.44	24.39	67.3%
3 7 6 4 8 4 3	35	6.31	24.75	67.3%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 3	35	6.12	24.14	67.3%
3 5 6 6 8 4 3	35	5.72	23.65	67.3%
2 7 6 4 9 4 3	35	4.78	24.46	67.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 3	34	6.34	24.44	65.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 2	34	5.62	24.61	65.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 3	34	5.54	25.21	65.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 3	34	4.70	25.17	65.4%
3 7 5 4 8 4 3	34	3.87	25.69	65.4%
3 7 6 4 9 3 2	34	2.98	24.09	65.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 2	33	5.94	24.97	63.5%
2 6 6 4 9 4 2	33	5.75	25.27	63.5%
2 7 8 4 7 4 1	33	5.16	24.48	63.5%
3 6 6 4 9 4 1	33	4.75	24.82	63.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 2	33	4.09	24.94	63.5%
3 5 6 5 9 4 1	33	3.82	25.94	63.5%
2 7 6 4 8 4 2	33	2.39	25.67	63.5%
3 7 6 4 6 4 2	32	7.97	25.33	61.5%
3 6 6 4 7 4 2	32	5.44	25.27	61.5%
3 6 6 3 8 4 2	32	4.96	25.28	61.5%
2 6 6 4 7 4 2	31	6.15	24.36	59.6%
1 5 6 4 9 4 1	30	3.66	25.67	57.7%
1 7 6 5 5 4 2	30	2.87	26.77	57.7%