LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sydney Geelong Greater Western Sydney Melbourne Essendon Fremantle Port Adelaide Carlton Collingwood Gold Coast Western Bulldogs Adelaide St Kilda Brisbane Lions West Coast Hawthorn Richmond North Melbourne
Live Ladders 49.1 3.8 4.8 5.1 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.6 7.0 3.8 5.8 7.9 6.7 -5.0 5.4 5.1 6.0 6.2 7.2 6.9 6.4 4.1 1.0 6.6 7.9 7.3 9.2
AFLalytics 49.1 2.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.3 3.4 5.3 6.7 6.3 -1.6 5.6 6.7 5.7 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.3 4.8 3.3 7.3 6.7 5.7 7.6
Squiggle 48.0 3.2 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.9 6.8 2.3 6.2 6.0 7.3 -1.4 5.8 6.8 6.1 6.3 6.2 5.8 6.0 4.7 1.0 6.5 6.6 6.0 7.9
Wheelo Ratings 46.8 3.0 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.7 7.0 3.3 4.8 6.9 6.9 -3.7 5.5 6.8 6.0 6.3 6.0 6.6 5.9 5.0 1.2 6.1 6.2 5.9 7.9
Winnable 44.8 2.9 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.6 5.1 5.4 6.5 6.5 1.9 5.2 5.3 6.4 0.1 4.3 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.8 4.2 0.4 6.6 4.9 5.2 8.6
Glicko Ratings 44.3 3.4 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.4 7.3 5.0 3.1 8.0 6.9 1.8 3.8 6.9 4.8 6.5 6.8 5.7 5.9 6.6 3.4 6.2 5.9 3.6 8.9
The Footycast 43.4 2.4 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.3 6.1 6.6 7.5 2.8 5.2 5.9 7.4 1.3 5.3 6.7 4.8 5.3 7.2 4.9 6.4 4.6 1.8 6.2 8.4 5.0 8.4
Don't Blame the Data 41.5 3.3 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.6 5.7 6.8 4.8 7.1 4.2 7.7 -1.3 1.9 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 -1.3 6.9 7.3 6.0 9.3
PlusSixOne 39.2 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.6 5.9 0.1 4.1 2.5 5.6 1.3 5.1 6.3 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.1 5.5 3.6 1.5 7.3 5.3 1.6 5.9
Matter of Stats 38.3 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.7 1.5 3.5 6.9 6.7 -4.8 5.7 6.6 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.2 4.6 0.2 7.0 6.2 5.4 7.0
What Snoo Thinks 37.9 1.5 4.1 4.1 5.2 4.8 5.1 6.0 7.2 2.8 0.4 8.1 7.5 -8.7 4.6 6.5 5.2 6.6 6.0 6.8 4.7 6.7 -0.1 5.7 7.2 6.8 8.5
Stattraction 37.9 2.6 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.6 0.4 6.4 8.0 7.6 -10.0 5.5 6.7 3.9 6.8 7.2 6.5 6.2 7.0 -4.6 4.4 8.5 6.8 8.0
ZaphBot 37.6 2.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.3 5.2 5.5 6.7 2.9 5.4 7.8 7.5 -9.3 3.7 7.2 3.8 6.4 7.3 5.2 5.9 5.7 -0.5 4.1 8.5 5.5 7.6
AFL Lab 37.2 3.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.3 6.0 1.1 3.7 4.7 6.8 -2.8 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.2 4.6 0.7 7.1 5.8 3.6 8.1
Ladder 36.9 0.5 2.8 3.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 7.4 10.0 5.2 3.4 6.3 6.3 0.1 5.6 4.1 3.0 1.5 5.2 3.7 4.9 4.9 5.6 4.9 7.1 3.7 7.4
Elo Predicts! 36.8 2.7 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.3 5.3 5.1 5.9 4.1 7.9 8.4 8.0 -8.9 1.3 7.8 7.0 4.6 6.0 6.5 8.1 5.2 -9.4 4.5 9.7 3.0 9.1
Informed Stats 19.9 4.4 4.6 4.4 6.4 3.5 8.7 7.1 7.9 -8.7 1.6 7.6 2.6 5.3 7.8 5.7 8.3 7.4 -3.7 4.4 8.8 5.9 9.0
FMI 14.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.3 -0.7 5.6 7.5 -10.8 3.9 1.4 6.3 3.3 2.2 6.1 0.8 1.3 -11.7 7.7 7.0 2.1 1.8

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99761765 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99457059 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.99324418 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99289265 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99247535 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98666897 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98637976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94527741 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.94385882 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 3
9.94380941 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.93033529 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 4
9.90983529 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.90811894 Winnable North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.90697941 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 1
9.90534376 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.89748550 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.89039268 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.87770882 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87156003 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.87096176 Elo Predicts! Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16th 2
9.86334068 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.84172806 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.83310041 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.83292647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.82871018 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.80814179 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-18.4 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-17.5 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-16.7 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-16.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
-15.6 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-15.2 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
-14.1 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-13.8 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-13.8 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-13.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-13.5 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-12.9 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-12.8 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-12.8 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 1
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 1
-12.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-12.7 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-12.7 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 5
-12.2 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
-12.0 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 1
-11.6 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-11.2 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
-11.2 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-11.2 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 7
-11.2 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 6

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
52.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
50.5 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
45.5 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 1
44.4 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
42.4 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 1
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 2
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 6
42.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 7
40.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 2
39.3 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
39.2 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 6
37.8 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
36.6 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
34.6 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
32.7 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
31.8 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 3
31.8 What Snoo Thinks Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 0
30.7 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 6
29.7 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 1
29.6 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
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13
14
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18
 14th 5
29.4 Winnable Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 5
29.3 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14th 4

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-56.8 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-55.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-53.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2nd 0
-51.2 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-48.1 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-47.6 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 4
-47.5 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 2
-47.4 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5th 0
-47.0 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
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-45.7 Stattraction Essendon
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-45.6 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 5th 2
-45.6 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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-45.5 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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-45.4 Stattraction Essendon
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-45.3 Informed Stats Essendon
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-44.0 Stattraction Essendon
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-43.2 ZaphBot Essendon
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-42.3 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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-41.8 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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-41.1 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 5th 3
-39.8 Matter of Stats Essendon
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-39.4 FMI Essendon
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-39.4 FMI Essendon
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-39.4 FMI Essendon
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-39.4 FMI Essendon
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 5th 4